Oban Elliott vs Seokhyeon Ko
Rising Prospect vs UFC Debutant • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Rising Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
UFC Debutant Metrics
Professional Record (Limited Data)
Limited professional MMA data
DWCS Win vs Igor Cavalcanti (Decision)
UFC Debut - No Historical Data
First UFC appearance
Data will be available after debut fight
Recent UFC Fights - Oban Elliott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Bassil Hafez | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R3, 0:40) |
| 2024-07-27 | Preston Parsons | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Val Woodburn | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Pre-UFC Record - Seokhyeon Ko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-03 | Igor Cavalcanti | W | Decision (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-08 | Alwin Kincai | W | Not specified (R3, 5:00) |
| * Limited available data - Additional professional fights may not be recorded | |||
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Detailed Fight Analysis
🥊 Oban Elliott Key Advantages
3-0 in the UFC with proven ability to perform under bright lights
3" height and 1" reach advantage
Exceptional third-round performances, all UFC wins in R3
Shows competence in all areas with recent KO win
Coming off highlight-reel KO at UFC 309
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Getting caught early by Ko's power before establishing rhythm
Allowing Ko to dictate pace in opening rounds
Standing and trading in pocket where Ko's power could equalize
📋 Elliott's Approach
Weather early storm, use reach and movement to avoid Ko's power
Mix in takedowns to drain Ko's cardio and disrupt rhythm
Increase pressure as fight progresses, hunting for late finish
🚀 Key Advantages for Seok Hyun Ko
55% KO/TKO rate with explosive striking
4 first-round finishes suggest dangerous early rounds
Dominant 11-2 record with current 4-fight streak
UFC debut opportunity creates heightened motivation
Lack of UFC footage makes preparation difficult
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fight extending into deep waters where Elliott thrives
Getting taken down and controlled by Elliott's superior grappling
UFC debut nerves affecting performance under pressure
📋 Ko's Approach
Start fast and aggressive, hunting for early knockout
Keep fight standing where his power advantage is maximized
Target body early to slow Elliott's movement
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights
🏆Oban Elliott Win Methods (73%)
🚀Seok Hyun Ko Win Methods (27%)
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed evaluation of value in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Identified Value Spots
SOLID VALUE
Model: +220 | Market: +390
LIGHT VALUE
Finish probability: 41%
CAUTION
No value, inflated line
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Elliott's experience - Market doesn't fully consider Ko's finishing capabilities
- • Undervalues Ko's finishing power - 55% KO rate and 4 R1 finishes
- • UFC public bias - Creates inflated line due to Elliott's proven experience
- • Ignores debutant motivation - Ko has everything to gain and nothing to lose
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to market's inflated pricing
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elliott's proven UFC ability
- • Significant physical advantages
- • Third round dominance
- • Market's inflated pricing for Elliott
- • Ko's upset potential identified
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ko's knockout power (55% KO rate)
- • Limited data on Ko at UFC level
- • Debutant motivation factor
- • Volatile nature of welterweight
- • Any shot can change everything
🏁Executive Summary
While Ko presents legitimate upset potential through his precision, motivation and unknown factor, Elliott's combination of UFC experience, physical advantages and superior overall output make him the justified favorite. The 73-27 split reflects both Elliott's clear advantages and the inherent unpredictability that comes with debut fights.
The market has made Elliott a massive -515 favorite, but our model suggests he should be closer to -270. This 245-point difference represents significant disagreement and creates potential value on Ko at +390, though Elliott remains the legitimate favorite.
Prediction: Elliott should win this fight 7 out of 10 times, but at -515, there's no value betting on him. Ko presents intriguing value as an underdog at +390, particularly for those who believe in his power translating to the UFC level. The smartest approach may be to avoid the moneyline entirely and focus on props where finish probabilities suggest value.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🔍Prospect vs Debutant Dynamics
This fascinating matchup pits a rising UFC prospect against a motivated debutant seeking to make his mark. Elliott's perfect 3-0 UFC record demonstrates his ability to perform under the bright lights, while Ko brings the hunger and unpredictability that only a debut fighter possesses. The experience factor heavily favors Elliott, who has already proven he belongs at this level, but Ko's DWCS victory shows he has the skills to compete with top-level talent.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Elliott's clear advantages in overall volume (4.26 vs 3.60 SLpM) and physical dimensions, giving him multiple paths to victory. However, Ko's superior striking accuracy (52% vs 49%) and the unknown factor of his complete skill set create intriguing variables. Elliott's technical score advantage (72 vs 60) reflects his more well-rounded development, but Ko's precision striking could prove decisive in crucial moments.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by range management and early pacing. Elliott's 2-inch reach and height advantages give him clear tools to control distance, but Ko must find ways to close that gap and get inside where his accuracy advantage becomes more relevant. The early minutes will be crucial as Ko looks to establish his rhythm before Elliott can impose his physical advantages and experience.
🛣️Victory Scenarios
Elliott's path to victory involves using his physical advantages to control range while maintaining high striking output. His proven finishing ability gives him multiple ways to end the fight, whether through accumulation or a big shot. Ko's victory requires overcoming the physical disadvantages through superior accuracy and pressure, potentially catching Elliott off-guard early when motivation is highest and nerves haven't yet been overcome.
📈Final Prediction
While Ko brings legitimate upset potential through his accuracy, motivation, and unknown factor, Elliott's combination of UFC experience, physical advantages, and superior overall output make him the rightful favorite. The 70-30 split reflects both Elliott's clear advantages and the inherent unpredictability that comes with debut fights. Expect Elliott to use his reach early and often, potentially finding a finish if Ko struggles to close distance or gets caught reaching. Ko's best chance lies in the opening round when his motivation is highest and Elliott might be still feeling out the unknown opponent.