Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum
Flyweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tagir Ulanbekov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Clayton Carpenter | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Cody Durden | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:25) |
| 2022-11-05 | Nate Maness | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:11) |
| 2022-03-05 | Tim Elliott | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-30 | Allan Nascimento | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Azat Maksum
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-03 | Charles Johnson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Tyson Nam | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 52) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Tagir Ulanbekov Key Advantages
Training at Eagles MMA/AKA with Khabib's team. Elite Dagestan wrestling foundation with proven submission threat.
Dangerous guillotines and rear naked chokes. Elite submission threat with proven finishing ability.
Faced higher-level competition with proven ability to adapt and perform under UFC-level pressure.
Current 3-fight win streak with increasing dominance. Never been finished in professional career.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Getting drawn into a pure striking exchange could neutralize his wrestling advantages.
Allowing Maksum to dictate range and pace could limit takedown opportunities.
Overlooking an opponent with limited UFC experience could lead to tactical mistakes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mix strikes to set up takedowns, grinding top control with submission hunting when opportunities arise.
🚀 Azat Maksum Key Advantages
Fighting with nothing to lose mentality against a highly ranked opponent. Dangerous underdog position.
Comfortable going the distance and maintaining pace through three rounds of competition.
Fought more recently than typical, maintaining ring timing and competitive rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended grappling exchanges against Ulanbekov's elite submission threat.
Being controlled on the ground where Ulanbekov can work his submission game.
Facing submission attempts from dominant positions where escape is difficult.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use footwork to avoid clinch entries, volume striking to win rounds while avoiding extended grappling.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights
🥊Tagir Ulanbekov Win Methods (78%)
🥊Azat Maksum Win Methods (22%)
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 32.3% | Market: 35.1%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 51.2% | Market: 54.5%
CLOSE MATCH
Model: 26.0% | Market: 29.4%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Ulanbekov's dominance - Market doesn't account for Maksum's potential
- • Undervalues finish potential - Both fighters have shown ability to end fights
- • Limited sample bias - Maksum's 2 UFC fights creates uncertainty in market pricing
- • Experience premium - Market heavily weights Ulanbekov's UFC experience
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Ulanbekov
60.3% of his wins | Wrestling control + cardio
33.3% of his wins | Elite grappling threat
6.4% of his wins | Limited striking power
🚀Outcome Distribution - Maksum
90.9% of his wins | Distance fighting preferred
9.1% of his wins | Limited knockout threat
No submission wins in professional career
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯Systematic Dominance - Ulanbekov
- • Early pressure: Wrestling from opening bell
- • Position control: Dominate top position and cage control
- • Submission hunting: Constant threat for finishes
- • Experience edge: Proven durability and fight IQ
🚀Underdog Scenarios - Maksum
- • Distance control: Keep fight standing with footwork
- • Volume striking: Outwork Ulanbekov on feet
- • Late game: Capitalize on any fatigue
- • Takedown defense: Stuff enough takedowns to win rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on Ulanbekov's experience and grappling dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite training environment (Eagles MMA)
- • Proven UFC experience (6 vs 2 fights)
- • Superior grappling credentials
- • 40% finish rate with submissions
- • Never been finished professionally
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Limited data on Maksum's ceiling
- • Underdog motivation factor
- • Potential weight cut issues
- • Maksum's recent activity advantage
- • Flyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Este enfrentamiento de peso mosca presenta a un veterano experimentado contra un talento emergente con pocas peleas en la UFC. Ulanbekov trae credenciales superiores de lucha, un entorno de entrenamiento de élite en Eagles MMA, y experiencia probada en la UFC con una tasa de finalización del 40% y nunca ha sido finalizado profesionalmente.
El mercado de apuestas parece valorar adecuadamente las ventajas de Ulanbekov, aunque nuestro modelo sugiere un ligero valor en el under 2.5 rounds. La ventaja de experiencia significativa (6 vs 2 peleas UFC) y las credenciales de lucha superior crean múltiples caminos hacia la victoria para Ulanbekov.
Predicción: Ulanbekov implementa presión de lucha temprana, potencialmente asegurando un final por sumisión en los rounds 2-3, o controlando suficientes posiciones para asegurar una victoria por decisión si la pelea llega a la distancia. Su experiencia probada, habilidades de lucha de élite y entorno de entrenamiento proporcionan confianza en la ejecución bajo presión.