Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman
UFC Fight Night Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Hamdy Abdelwahab
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Jamal Pogues | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Don'Tale Mayes | NC | No Contest (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mohammed Usman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Thomas Petersen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Mick Parkin | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Jake Collier | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-22 | Junior Tafa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-06 | Zac Pauga | W | KO/TKO (R2, 0:36) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Hamdy Abdelwahab Key Advantages
Superior takedown rate (2.0 vs 0.69 per 15min) with elite 80% accuracy and perfect 100% defense
Unbreachable 100% takedown defense vs Mohammed's modest 60% TDD
260 lbs frame provides significant size and strength advantages in clinch battles
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Mohammed's 7" reach advantage could keep Hamdy at distance and prevent takedown entries
Higher weight and wrestling pace could lead to fatigue if unable to secure early takedowns
🚀 Mohammed Usman Key Advantages
79" reach vs 72" allows distance control and punishment of wrestling entries
5 UFC fights vs 2 provides crucial octagon experience and composure
Proven ability to end fights vs Hamdy's 0% finish rate in UFC
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor 60% TDD against elite wrestler could lead to prolonged ground control situations
Two-fight losing streak could impact confidence against undefeated opponent
🥊 Detailed Fighter Analysis
Hamdy Abdelwahab's Style & Approach
Abdelwahab is a wrestling-heavy fighter who leverages his 260-pound frame to control opponents on the ground or in the clinch. In his UFC debut against Don'Tale Mayes, he landed 3/4 takedowns (75% accuracy) and controlled 5:51 of the fight, showcasing elite positional dominance. His striking is functional but effective, with 52% accuracy and a focus on head strikes (75% of significant strikes). He wins fights by grinding out decisions through wrestling (UFC) or landing powerful KO/TKOs outside the UFC (5/6 overall wins). His 0.5 knockdown average per fight suggests latent power, though not yet displayed in the UFC.
💪Strengths
- Elite Wrestling: 80% takedown accuracy and 100% takedown defense make him a nightmare in grappling exchanges.
- Striking Accuracy: 52% accuracy is well above the heavyweight average (~45%).
- Physicality: 260-pound frame aids in clinch and ground control.
- Cardio: Maintained output over 15 minutes against Mayes, landing 106 total strikes.
⚠️Weaknesses
- Limited UFC Sample: Only one UFC fight makes his adaptability to high-level competition uncertain.
- Low Finish Rate in UFC: 0% finish rate suggests difficulty closing fights against durable heavyweights.
- Striking Volume: 3.4 SLpM is moderate, and he may struggle against high-output strikers if wrestling is neutralized.
Mohammed Usman's Style & Approach
Usman is a balanced MMA fighter who blends moderate striking with occasional grappling. His 37% striking accuracy and 3.41 SLpM reflect a lower-efficiency, volume-based approach, with 95% of his significant strikes landed standing. He has one-punch KO power (e.g., Zac Pauga KO), but his 33.3% finish rate shows inconsistency. His grappling is underwhelming, with a 18% takedown accuracy and 0.69 TD15, though he's secured key takedowns in wins (e.g., 2/12 vs. Tafa). Usman typically wins by outlasting opponents for decisions (2/3 UFC wins) or landing a rare KO.
💪Strengths
- KO Power: 0.23 knockdown average and Pauga KO demonstrate fight-changing power.
- Reach Advantage: 79-inch reach aids in jab-heavy striking from distance.
- Experience: 5 UFC fights provide a broader sample of high-level performance.
- Resilience: Fought through adversity (e.g., eye poke vs. Collier) to secure wins.
⚠️Weaknesses
- Poor Striking Accuracy: 37% is well below average, leading to inefficient output.
- Weak Grappling: 18% takedown accuracy and 60% takedown defense expose vulnerabilities against wrestlers.
- Recent Form: Two consecutive decision losses (Parkin, Petersen) show declining momentum.
- High Strike Absorption: 4.41 StrAbsPM indicates defensive liabilities.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction based on statistical analysis and recent form
⚔️Stylistic Advantages Analysis
🤼Abdelwahab's Wrestling Edge
Abdelwahab's wrestling dominance is a clear edge. His 80% takedown accuracy and 100% takedown defense align perfectly against Usman's 18% takedown accuracy and 60% takedown defense. In his debut, Abdelwahab controlled Mayes with takedowns and ground-and-pound, a strategy likely to exploit Usman's poor defensive wrestling (e.g., Petersen landed 2/5 takedowns).
Abdelwahab's 52% striking accuracy also trumps Usman's 37%, allowing him to land cleaner shots in stand-up exchanges. His 260-pound frame will amplify his control in the clinch and on the ground, where Usman struggles to escape (e.g., Tafa fight).
📏Usman's Reach & Experience
Usman's 7-inch reach advantage and 0.23 knockdown average give him a chance to keep Abdelwahab at bay with jabs and land a fight-altering punch. His experience (5 UFC fights vs. 1) could help him weather early pressure and capitalize on Abdelwahab's untested adaptability.
However, Usman's low striking accuracy (37%) and high strike absorption (4.41 StrAbsPM) reduce the likelihood of outstriking Abdelwahab, who absorbed fewer strikes (3.87 StrAbsPM) against Mayes.
🎯Key Factors & Fight Gameplans
⚖️Key Factors Determining the Outcome
- Wrestling Differential: Abdelwahab's ability to secure takedowns (2.0 TD15) and maintain control will dictate the fight's location. Usman's 60% takedown defense is a glaring weakness, as seen in his losses where opponents controlled position.
- Striking Efficiency: Abdelwahab's 15% higher striking accuracy (52% vs. 37%) means he's likely to land more significant strikes, even if Usman matches his volume (3.41 vs. 3.4 SLpM).
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Usman's 4.41 StrAbsPM and 60% takedown defense are exploitable by Abdelwahab's cleaner striking and wrestling. Abdelwahab's 100% takedown defense (small sample) suggests Usman's limited grappling (0.69 TD15) won't shift the fight to the ground.
- Momentum and Form: Abdelwahab's recent win (2025) contrasts with Usman's two straight losses, indicating better current form.
- Fight Location: If Abdelwahab imposes his wrestling, the fight favors him heavily. If Usman keeps it standing, his reach and power offer a path to victory, though his low accuracy tempers this threat.
🎮Abdelwahab's Gameplan
Initiate with jabs to close distance, then shoot for double-leg takedowns to put Usman on his back. Control from half guard or mount, landing ground-and-pound to rack up control time and damage. In striking exchanges, focus on precise counters to exploit Usman's low accuracy. Avoid prolonged stand-up battles where Usman's reach could land a lucky KO.
🎮Usman's Gameplan
Use his 79-inch reach to maintain distance with jabs and leg kicks, targeting Abdelwahab's lead leg to slow his takedown entries. Circle away from the cage to avoid being pinned in the clinch. Look for a big right hand or uppercut to catch Abdelwahab during takedown attempts. If taken down, focus on wall-walking to stand up quickly, as seen in the Tafa fight.
💰Probabilistic Betting Analysis
Hamdy Abdelwahab - 65% Win Probability
Mohammed Usman - 35% Win Probability
📊Model vs Market Odds Comparison
Market Odds:
- Usman: +141
- Abdelwahab: -161
- Over 2.5 Rounds: -210
- Under 2.5 Rounds: +170
Model Odds:
- Usman: +186
- Abdelwahab: -186
- Over 2.5 Rounds: -300
- Under 2.5 Rounds: +240
💎Value Betting Opportunities
- Abdelwahab (-186 vs. -161): The market slightly overvalues Abdelwahab, but our model sees him as a better favorite due to his wrestling edge. The -186 line offers marginal value.
- Usman (+186 vs. +141): The market undervalues Usman's upset potential. His +186 model odds suggest a value bet for those believing in his KO power or reach advantage.
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-300 vs. -210): Our model sees a higher likelihood of the fight going the distance (75% vs. market's ~67.7%), making Over 2.5 Rounds a strong value bet.
- Under 2.5 Rounds (+240 vs. +170): The market overestimates the finish potential, as both fighters have low UFC finish rates (Abdelwahab 0%, Usman 33.3%).
🎯Final Analysis & Conviction Rating
🏆Heavyweight Dynamics
This heavyweight clash represents a classic wrestler vs striker matchup, with Hamdy's undefeated record and elite wrestling credentials facing Mohammed's octagon experience and reach advantages. The fight's outcome will likely be determined by Hamdy's ability to close distance and implement his wrestling game against Mohammed's defensive strategy of maintaining range and sprawling.
🎯Key Statistical Analysis
Hamdy's wrestling metrics are elite: 80% takedown accuracy with perfect 100% defense versus Mohammed's vulnerable 60% TDD. However, Mohammed's 7-inch reach advantage and superior UFC experience (5 vs 2 fights) create legitimate paths to victory. The 65-35 split reflects Hamdy's dominant grappling credentials while acknowledging Mohammed's proven ability to finish fights and control distance.
🔮Prediction Conclusion
Expect Hamdy to pursue early takedowns to avoid extended striking exchanges where Mohammed's reach becomes decisive. If Hamdy successfully implements his wrestling early, his perfect defensive metrics and grappling control should secure victory. However, Mohammed's experience and current form concerns for Hamdy make this a competitive heavyweight bout with potential for an upset if distance is maintained effectively.
🎯 Conviction Rating: 7/10
Our confidence stems from Abdelwahab's decisive statistical advantages in wrestling (80% TDAcc vs. 18%, 100% TDDef vs. 60%) and striking accuracy (52% vs. 37%). His ability to control the fight's location aligns with Usman's defensive vulnerabilities, as seen in Usman's losses to Petersen and Parkin. Abdelwahab's recent momentum and physicality further bolster our prediction. The only uncertainty is Abdelwahab's limited UFC sample, but his dominant debut and overall record mitigate this concern. The Over 2.5 Rounds prop and Usman's underdog odds offer the best betting value based on our model.