Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park
UFC Fight Night Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ismail Naurdiev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Bruno Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2020-02-29 | Sean Brady | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-09-28 | Siyar Bahadurzada | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-07-06 | Chance Rencountre | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2019-02-23 | Michel Prazeres | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Jun Yong Park
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Brad Tavares | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | André Muniz | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Albert Duraev | W | Submission (R2, 4:45) |
| 2023-02-04 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | Submission (R1, 4:05) |
| 2022-10-29 | Joseph Holmes | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:04) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 70). Park holds a slight edge in overall technical ability (67.5 vs 62.5), driven by his higher striking output and submission threat.
💪 Cardio Score
Park's cardio score (75) slightly outpaces Naurdiev's (70), based on 11:48 average fight duration and high SLpM. Both fighters show good endurance for a 3-round fight with proper weight cut considerations.
🎯 Overall Rating
Park's overall rating (71.25) edges Naurdiev's (66.25). Physical and career notes: Park at 34 is six years older, potentially impacting cardio in weight cut to 145 lbs.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Park (65/100): High SLpM but moderate accuracy/defense. Naurdiev (60/100): Lower SLpM but excellent defense (67%) and low absorption rate (1.52). Park's higher striking output contrasts with Naurdiev's defensive prowess.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Park (70/100): Strong submission threat (0.92 SubPer15) and moderate takedown offense. Naurdiev (65/100): Superior takedown defense (73%) but minimal submission offense. Key differential in grappling exchanges.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💪 Ismail Naurdiev Key Advantages
Elite striking defense (67% vs 54%) and strong takedown defense (73% vs 58%). Absorbs significantly fewer strikes (1.52 vs 3.42), providing crucial durability advantage.
Youth (6 years younger), height (2" taller), and reach advantages provide leverage and recovery
Six years younger (28 vs 34), taller frame (72" vs 70"), and longer reach (74" vs 73"). Leg reach advantage (40.5" vs 39") aids distance control with kicks.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Park's higher SLpM (4.77 vs 3.41) can dictate pace and potentially steal rounds on volume. Naurdiev's lower output limits ability to capitalize on defensive advantages.
If Park secures takedowns (1.85 TD15), Naurdiev's weak submission game (0.2 SubPer15) risks a finish. Recent submission prowess makes this particularly dangerous.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use 74" reach and 40.5" leg reach to maintain distance, landing precise counterstrikes (54% accuracy) while avoiding Park's volume attacks.
Rely on 73% takedown defense to stay upright, target body (24%) and leg strikes (22%) to slow Park's pace. Aim to outpoint Park over three rounds.
🚀 Jun Yong Park Key Advantages
High-volume striker landing 4.77 SLpM (vs 3.41), primarily targeting the head (81% of strikes). Can overwhelm opponents with pace and output.
7 UFC fights vs 4, with 71.4% win rate and recent 4-1 record showing stronger momentum. Recent finishing ability (3 submissions in last 5) demonstrates evolution.
Elite submission game with 0.92 attempts per 15min vs 0.2 - constant ground threat
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Naurdiev's takedown defense (73%) neutralizes Park's grappling, Park may struggle to control the fight and face frustrating striking exchanges.
At 34, potentially impacting cardio in grueling weight cut to 145 lbs. Prolonged striking match could expose cardio limitations after significant cut.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior striking output to overwhelm Naurdiev, force high-pace exchanges
Mix takedowns with striking to keep Naurdiev guessing, look for submission opportunities
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🔄Experience vs Youth Dynamic
This welterweight clash presents a classic experience versus youth dynamic. Park brings significantly more UFC experience (7 vs 4 fights) and is riding a 2-fight win streak, demonstrating his ability to adapt and evolve within the Octagon. His higher ELO rating (1044.3 vs 1014.7) reflects consistent performance against quality opposition. However, Naurdiev's youth advantage (6 years younger) could prove crucial in terms of recovery, explosiveness, and adaptability during the fight.
🥊Technical Breakdown & Statistical Insights
Park's striking volume advantage (4.77 vs 3.41 SLpM) gives him the edge in controlling fight pace, while his submission threat (0.92 vs 0.2 SubPer15) provides multiple pathways to victory. Naurdiev's defensive superiority shows in his striking defense (67% vs 54%) and significantly lower absorption rate (1.52 vs 3.42 strikes/min), making him harder to hurt but limiting offensive output. The fight hinges on whether Park can impose his pace and grappling or if Naurdiev can keep it standing and frustrate Park's volume with defensive counters.
⚡Finishing Power Analysis
Both fighters possess legitimate finishing ability, but with different methodologies. Naurdiev's 75% finish rate heavily skews toward first-round knockouts (68% of his wins), suggesting explosive power that could end fights quickly. Park's more diverse finishing portfolio (61.1% finish rate) includes both striking and submission threats, with his 4.6x higher submission rate (0.92 vs 0.2 per 15 minutes) providing multiple pathways to victory. The key question becomes whether Naurdiev can implement his early aggression before Park settles into his rhythm.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Naurdiev's path to victory involves leveraging his physical advantages early and often. His 2-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage, combined with youth and explosive power, create windows for early knockouts. His superior defensive metrics suggest he can weather Park's initial storm and counter effectively. The key is avoiding extended grappling exchanges where Park's submission skills become dangerous.
Park's victory likely comes through experience and technical superiority. His 39.9% higher striking output and proven ability to adapt during fights suggest he can outwork Naurdiev over time. His submission threat adds an X-factor that forces Naurdiev to respect the ground game. Park's recent form (2-fight win streak) indicates he's hitting his stride at the right time, while Naurdiev's coming off a loss.
💰Probabilistic Simulation & Betting Analysis
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulations: Park wins 57% of scenarios (35% decision, 5% KO/TKO, 17% submission), while Naurdiev wins 43% (35% decision, 8% KO/TKO, 2% submission). Fight goes to decision in 60% of scenarios. Market odds: Park -190 vs Naurdiev +165. Park by Submission (+300) offers significant value given his 17% probability. Fight Goes to Decision (-150) and Over 2.5 Rounds (-170) align with the 60% decision rate. Naurdiev offers substantial value at +165.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎 Value Opportunities
Identifying the best betting value propositions
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 17% | Market: 22.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 43% | Market: 38.5%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 44.4%
💎Detailed Market Analysis
High Value Bets
Model gives this 17% chance (fair odds +488). Market at +350 offers excellent value.
43% model probability vs 38.5% market implied. Clear value at current odds.
Avoid/Overpriced
Market implies 64.9% vs model's 57%. Overvalued by nearly 8 percentage points.
Market expects 60.8% vs model's 65.3%. Slight overpricing but closer to fair value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Park
61.4% of his wins | Volume striking advantage
29.8% of his wins | Elite ground game
8.8% of his wins | Limited knockout power
💥Outcome Distribution - Naurdiev
81.4% of his wins | Defensive counterpunching
18.6% of his wins | Early power shots
Minimal submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Early Danger Window - Naurdiev
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum knockout potential
- • Physical advantages: Height/reach control striking distance
- • Youth factor: Fresh legs and explosive bursts
- • Defensive shell: 67% striking defense limits Park's entries
🎯Experience Takeover - Park
- • Round 2+: Volume and experience show
- • Grappling threat: Constant submission danger
- • Pace control: 4.77 vs 3.41 SLpM advantage
- • Late finish: Submissions more likely in round 3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high confidence with key uncertainties
✅Supporting Factors
- • Park's volume striking advantage
- • Elite submission threat (4.6x higher)
- • Recent momentum (2-fight streak)
- • Higher ELO rating
- • Multiple pathways to victory
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Naurdiev's early knockout power
- • Youth vs experience dynamic
- • Physical disadvantages for Park
- • Limited striking defense
- • Age factor at 34 years old
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash presents a compelling stylistic matchup between Naurdiev's youth and defensive striking against Park's experience and well-rounded skillset. Park's clear advantages in volume striking (40% higher output) and elite submission threat (4.6x higher rate) give him multiple pathways to victory.
The betting market appears to slightly overvalue Park at -185, with our model suggesting -132 as fair value. However, the strongest value lies in Park by Submission (+350), which offers exceptional odds given the 17% model probability. Naurdiev at +160 also presents solid value for those backing the physical advantages and youth factor.
Prediction: Park's experience and technical versatility should prevail, likely via decision after weathering early pressure from Naurdiev. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Naurdiev can implement his early power effectively or if Park can establish his pace and grappling threat. Park's recent momentum and submission skills provide the edge in what should be a competitive 3-round affair.