Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev
UFC Fight Night Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Myktybek Orolbai
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Mateusz Rebecki | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Elves Brener | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Uros Medic | W | Submission - Neck Crank (R2, 4:12) |
| 2023-10-27 | Hayward Charles | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-04 | Glaucio Eliziario | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tofiq Musayev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-04 | Koji Takeda | W | KO - Punches (R3, 2:03) |
| 2023-07-30 | Akira Okada | W | KO - Punches (R2, 1:11) |
| 2023-03-10 | Alexander Shabliy | L | TKO - Body Kick (R3, 0:29) |
| 2022-07-22 | Sidney Outlaw | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:27) |
| 2021-06-13 | Roberto de Souza | L | Submission - Triangle (R1, 1:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (45 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (55 vs 62). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🇰🇬 Myktybek Orolbai Key Advantages
Superior height (70" vs 69"), reach (74" vs 73"), and leg reach (39.5" vs 38") provide range control
3 UFC fights (2-1 record) vs UFC debutant - valuable octagon experience advantage
Massive takedown advantage: 3.5 TD15 vs 1.0 - superior wrestling and grappling control
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor striking defense (29% vs 55%) and high absorption rate (5.7 vs 4.5 SApM) creates openings
Facing experienced 36-year-old veteran with craftiness and knockout power to exploit youth
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use takedown volume (3.5 TD15) to control fight, wear down opponent and avoid striking exchanges
Ground control to neutralize striking advantage, hunt for submission opportunities late
🇦🇿 Tofiq Musayev Key Advantages
Superior striking accuracy (55% vs 50%) and excellent defensive awareness (55% StrDef vs 29%)
Elite finishing ability with 75% finish rate vs 70% - knockout power and diverse finish methods
Proven at highest levels: 7-1 in RIZIN, 1-1 in Bellator against top international competition
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Orolbai's takedown volume (3.5 TD15 vs 1.0) could force extended ground exchanges
At 36 years old with potential inactivity, cardio and durability may decline in later rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defense (55% vs 29% StrDef) to avoid damage while countering effectively
Maintain vertical base with 65% TDD, keep fight standing where striking advantage matters
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚔️Grappler vs Striker Dynamic
This lightweight clash now presents an intriguing grappler vs striker matchup. Orolbai's grappling advantage is substantial with 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Musayev's 1.0, while maintaining a 75 grappling composite score versus Musayev's 55. However, Musayev's 75% finish rate and superior striking defense (55% vs 29%) keep him dangerous throughout.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a more balanced fight than initially expected. While Musayev maintains striking advantages (80 vs 68 striking composite, 55% vs 50% accuracy), Orolbai's grappling superiority (75 vs 55 composite) and takedown volume (3.5 vs 1.0 TD15) provide clear paths to victory. The age factor (27 vs 36) and UFC experience favor Orolbai, but Musayev's proven finishing ability keeps him competitive.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in the early exchanges where Musayev's explosive striking meets Orolbai's range management. Musayev's pattern of early finishes (8 R1 finishes out of 15 total) suggests he either finishes early or faces increased difficulty as fights progress. Orolbai's survival of the early storm could shift momentum, especially if he can utilize his physical advantages to slow the pace and grind out a decision.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Musayev's path to victory centers on his proven ability to find finishes early, leveraging his superior striking output and power to overwhelm Orolbai before the UFC veteran can implement his gameplan. His success in elite organizations (RIZIN, Bellator) suggests he can handle big-fight pressure despite the UFC debut.
Orolbai's victory likely comes through weathering the early storm and using his physical advantages to control range and pace. His UFC experience provides valuable octagon time, and his ability to find submissions (2 career submission wins) could become relevant if the fight goes to the ground. The betting odds favoring Musayev (-220) reflect the striking disparity, but Orolbai's +180 value suggests respect for his physical tools and experience.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: 18.2%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: 34.5%
AVOID
Model: 12% | Market: 18.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Orolbai's finishing ability - Limited UFC power compared to regional finishes
- • Undervalues Musayev's experience - Elite level competition in RIZIN & Bellator
- • UFC debut discount - Market penalizes Musayev for lack of octagon time
- • Ignores stylistic matchup - Striker vs grappler dynamic favors the wrestler
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🇰🇬Outcome Distribution - Orolbai
60% of his wins | Grappling control path
15% of his wins | Ground control advantage
38% of his wins | Limited striking power
🇦🇿Outcome Distribution - Musayev
75% of his wins | Elite striking power
20% of his wins | Path if no finish
5% of his wins | Minimal grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Musayev
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum knockout danger
- • Early exchange: Before wrestling takes over
- • Striking distance: Keep fight standing at all costs
- • Power shots: Land fight-ending shots early
🎯Progressive Dominance - Orolbai
- • Takedown pressure: 3.5 TD15 vs 1.0 advantage
- • Ground control: Neutralize striking threat
- • Youth factor: 27 vs 36 age advantage
- • Late rounds: Superior cardio and conditioning
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence - competitive stylistic matchup
✅Supporting Factors
- • Orolbai's grappling advantage (3.5 TD15)
- • Physical advantages (height, reach)
- • UFC experience edge
- • Age and conditioning favor
- • Wrestling neutralizes striking
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Musayev's explosive power (75% finish rate)
- • Elite level experience (RIZIN/Bellator)
- • Early knockout threat
- • Orolbai's poor striking defense (29%)
- • Classic striker vs grappler volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight clash presents a classic striker vs grappler matchup with Orolbai's wrestling and UFC experience facing Musayev's elite striking power and finishing ability. The statistical analysis favors Orolbai with significant advantages in takedown volume (3.5 vs 1.0 TD15), grappling composite (75 vs 55), and physical attributes.
However, Musayev's proven ability to finish fights early (75% finish rate, 8 R1 finishes) and elite-level competition experience in RIZIN and Bellator creates significant early danger. The betting market appears balanced, with slight value on specific props rather than the main event odds.
Prediction: Orolbai's path to victory lies in surviving the early storm and implementing his wrestling gameplan. His youth, conditioning, and grappling advantages should prove decisive if he can weather Musayev's early explosiveness. Expect Orolbai to grind out a decision victory through wrestling control and ground dominance.