Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad
UFC Fight Night Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Muhammad Naimov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-31 | Ofli | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Felipe Lima | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 1:15) |
| 2024-02-24 | Erik Silva | W | KO/TKO - Leg Injury (R1, 0:44) |
| 2023-06-03 | Nathaniel Wood | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Jamie Mullarkey | W | KO/TKO - Jamie Mullarkey (R2, 2:59) |
Last 5 Fights - Bogdan Grad
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Lucas Alexander | W | TKO - Punches & Elbows from Mount (R2, 4:22) |
| 2024-08-27 | Michael Aswell Jr. | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-08 | Tom Nolan | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (70 vs 85). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Muhammad Naimov Key Advantages
Three UFC fights vs one for Grad, providing crucial octagon experience and big-stage composure
1" height advantage and 0.5" leg reach advantage could provide leverage in clinch and striking
High finish rate with 50% first-round finishes demonstrates dangerous early aggression
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Naimov's 2.94 SLpM struggles against Grad's 5.83, risking being outworked in striking exchanges
36% TDAcc and 67% TDDef are outclassed by Grad's wrestling. Submission loss to Lima exposes ground vulnerabilities
Lower Cardio Score (75 vs 82) may falter against Grad's relentless pace over three rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep distance using 70-inch reach to land heavy counters (61% head strikes) while avoiding Grad's volume
With 67% TDDef, focus on sprawling and brawling to avoid Grad's 3.5 TD15 wrestling pressure
100% finish rate suggests hunting for KO/TKO, especially rounds 1-2, targeting Grad's 7.84 absorbed strikes
🚀 Bogdan Grad Key Advantages
Perfect takedown defense vs Naimov's 67% - complete neutralization of grappling threat
5.83 vs 2.94 strikes per minute - nearly double the offensive output with superior accuracy
Traditional karate striking with excellent distance management and explosive counter-attacks
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
7.84 Sig. Str. Absorbed Per Min is a red flag against Naimov's power (6 KO/TKO wins overall)
One UFC fight limits understanding of ability under octagon pressure against experienced opponent
DWCS loss to Nolan via KO/TKO suggests susceptibility to power shots, especially against Naimov's precision
📋 Likely Gameplan
Leverage 5.83 SLpM and 53% StrAcc to overwhelm Naimov, mixing head (69%) and body (19%) strikes
Use 3.5 TD15 and 40% TDAcc to control fight location and limit Naimov's power opportunities
82 Cardio Score supports relentless pace, aiming to exhaust Naimov (75 Cardio) over three rounds
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Featherweight Dynamics
This featherweight bout showcases a classic striker vs mixed martial artist dynamic. Naimov brings well-rounded MMA skills with significant UFC experience, while Grad represents the new wave of traditional martial artists transitioning to MMA. The experience gap (3 UFC fights vs 1) provides Naimov with a crucial psychological advantage, having proven himself multiple times in the octagon.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals fascinating contrasts. Grad's striking metrics are superior across the board - 5.83 vs 2.94 strikes per minute (+98% output) and 53% vs 42% accuracy (+26% precision). However, his defensive liability (7.84 vs 3.77 strikes absorbed) creates opportunities for Naimov's finishing ability. Grad's perfect 100% takedown defense completely neutralizes Naimov's 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes, forcing a pure striking battle.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined by three critical factors: early exchanges where both fighters have shown first-round finishing ability; volume vs power dynamics where Grad's output meets Naimov's knockout power; and experience management where Naimov's octagon wisdom faces Grad's fresh hunger. Grad's karate background provides excellent distance management, but Naimov's 83.3% finish rate suggests any clean connection could end the fight.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Grad's path to victory involves implementing a high-volume striking game plan, using his karate footwork to maintain distance and land clean counter-strikes. His superior output and accuracy give him a clear route to decision victory if he can avoid Naimov's power shots.
Naimov must leverage his experience advantage and finishing ability, looking for the one big shot that his 83.3% finish rate suggests he can find. His physical advantages and octagon experience could prove decisive in the championship rounds, though his lower output makes a decision win challenging against Grad's volume.
🏁Final Prediction
While Naimov's experience and finishing ability create legitimate paths to victory, Grad's superior technical metrics and perfect takedown defense give him the statistical edge. The 55-45 split reflects Grad's advantages in the areas most likely to determine this fight - striking volume, accuracy, and grappling defense. Expect a competitive striking battle with Grad's karate style and output ultimately prevailing over Naimov's power and experience in a closely contested decision.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: 35.1%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 67.7% | Market: 59.2%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 35% | Estimated: ~+280
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Naimov's UFC experience - Market doesn't account for Grad's superior technical metrics
- • Undervalues Grad's volume advantage - 98% higher striking output significantly underestimated
- • Name recognition bias - Naimov's previous UFC exposure inflates market perception
- • Ignores grappling advantages - Grad's wrestling superiority underappreciated by market
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Naimov
66.7% of his wins | Superior knockout power
22.2% of his wins | Lower volume challenges
11.1% of his wins | Limited ground threat
🥋Outcome Distribution - Grad
36.4% of his wins | Volume accumulation
63.6% of his wins | Superior cardio + output
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Naimov
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum knockout danger
- • Round 1: 50% of his finishes occur early
- • Power shots: Must capitalize on Grad's defensive lapses
- • Experience edge: Use octagon familiarity early
🎯Progressive Dominance - Grad
- • Round 2+: Volume and pace take control
- • Accumulation: 98% higher output wears down Naimov
- • Wrestling pressure: Control fight location
- • Late rounds: Superior cardio becomes decisive
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good confidence based on clear technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear statistical dominance by Grad
- • Superior striking volume (98% higher)
- • Better accuracy and wrestling
- • Perfect takedown defense
- • Evident market mispricing
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Naimov's knockout power
- • UFC experience advantage
- • Grad's defensive liability (7.84 absorbed)
- • Small sample size for Grad
- • Potential early finish danger
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight clash presents a fascinating contrast between Naimov's UFC experience and knockout power against Grad's superior technical metrics and volume striking. Statistical data clearly favors Grad with decisive advantages in striking output (98% higher), accuracy (26% better), and wrestling control.
The betting market appears to overvalue Naimov's UFC experience while underestimating Grad's technical dominance. Our model indicates a 55% probability for Grad, significantly higher than the market's implied probability of 35.1%, creating exceptional value in Grad as the underdog.
Prediction: While Naimov's early knockout threat cannot be ignored, Grad's superior technical skills, volume striking, and perfect takedown defense should allow him to control the fight's pace and location. Expect Grad to weather any early storms and pull away with his relentless karate-based striking game, winning a competitive decision or late TKO stoppage.