Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta
UFC Lightweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, March 15, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
UFC Win Round Distribution
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
UFC Win Round Distribution
UFC Fights - Nazim Sadykhov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Ismael Bonfim | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R1, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Viacheslav Borshchev | D | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Terrance McKinney | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:07) |
| 2023-02-18 | Evan Elder | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R3, 0:38) |
Last 5 Fights - Nikolas Motta
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Maheshate | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Tom Nolan | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:03) |
| 2023-11-18 | Trey Ogden | L | Overturned (R3, 3:11) |
| 2023-06-17 | Manuel Torres | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:50) |
| 2022-09-17 | Cameron VanCamp | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:49) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (78 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Nazim Sadykhov Key Advantages
Strong grappling composite score (78 vs 55) with submission threat and takedown ability
Coming off first-round TKO victory over Bonfim, showing improved finishing ability
Undefeated in UFC with 3 wins and 1 draw, demonstrating consistent high-level performance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Motta's reach advantage and superior striking defense could limit takedown entries
Motta's knockout power and first-round finishing ability pose early risks
📋 Likely Gameplan
Build on Bonfim victory momentum with striking to set up takedowns against pure striker
Unbeaten UFC record (3-0-1) provides psychological edge and confidence in high-pressure situations
🚀 Nikolas Motta Key Advantages
Superior 56% striking defense vs 48% - excellent defensive awareness and head movement
Strong 82% TDD vs 75% - solid defensive wrestling to keep fight standing
70.5" reach advantage with knockout power - can control distance and finish early
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges could expose grappling skill gap against experienced wrestler
Limited submission defense experience against Sadykhov's proven ground skills
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Sadykhov at range, punish entry attempts with strikes
Capitalize on knockout power early before grappling exchanges become prominent
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on 100 hypothetical fights
⚖️Stylistic & Technical Snapshot
🥊Nazim Sadykhov
⚡Nikolas Motta
🎯Match-up Analysis
🏟️Geography Control
Sadykhov's 1.54 TD15 and 63% TDAcc suggest he will dictate where this fight takes place. Motta's 82% TDDef is respectable but may not withstand sustained pressure wrestling from a freestyle background. The cage geometry favors Sadykhov's range management with his 69" reach, allowing him to pepper jabs and low kicks before closing distance for takedown attempts.
💥Damage Assessment
Motta's 1.06 KD average and 67% KO/TKO finish rate represent the fight's primary finish threat early. However, Sadykhov's 5.66 StrAbs per minute, while concerning, hasn't resulted in UFC knockdowns yet. Once on the ground, Sadykhov's submission threat (0.31 per 15min) becomes paramount against Motta's zero grappling offense.
⏰Cardio & Round-Winning Equity
Sadykhov's 85 cardio score and 2.7 round average fight duration suggest he improves as fights progress. His volume striking (4.7 SLpM) can overwhelm Motta's lower output (3.64 SLpM) in championship rounds. Motta's 70 cardio score and 1.8 round average indicates he must finish early or risk late-round deterioration.
🧠Technical Edges & Tactical Considerations
The 12.5-point technical score gap (80 vs 67.5) reflects Sadykhov's versatility advantage. While Motta's striking defense (56% vs 48%) is superior, his reliance on power over volume creates feast-or-famine scenarios. Sadykhov's ability to mix striking with grappling provides multiple paths to victory, while Motta's path narrows significantly if takedowns succeed.
🎲Probabilistic Simulation Results
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulations considering historical data, stylistic matchups, and current form
Nazim Sadykhov - 72 Wins
Nikolas Motta - 28 Wins
Simulation Methodology: Historical fight data weighted by opponent quality, recent form (last 3 fights), stylistic matchup factors, and physical attributes. Cardio and technical scores influence late-round probabilities.
💰Odds Analysis: Model vs Market
📊Model-Derived Lines
| Market | Model % | Model Odds | Market Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadykhov Win | 72% | -257 | -410 | Pass |
| Motta Win | 28% | +310 | +310 | Fair |
| Fight goes to decision | 24% | +200 | +120 | Avoid |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | 40% | +150 | +195 | Minor Value |
| Motta by KO/TKO | 28% | +350 | +350 | Fair |
🎯Conviction Rating: 7/10
Our enhanced confidence stems from Sadykhov's improved momentum following his first-round TKO victory over Bonfim, combined with his unbeaten UFC record (3-0-1) and statistical advantages in SLpM (+29%), StrAcc (+27%), and complete grappling dominance (TD15 1.54, SubPer15 0.31 vs Motta's zeros). The recent finish demonstrates his evolving striking power alongside his established grappling threat. While Motta's 1.06 KD average and superior striking defense (56% vs 48%) still create upset potential, Sadykhov's psychological advantage of riding momentum into this bout cannot be understated. The market alignment at +310 for Motta now reflects fair value rather than the previous edge, as Sadykhov's confidence and recent success have elevated his win probability.