Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev
UFC Fight Night Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Debut Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Curtis Blaydes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-27 | Tom Aspinall | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Jailton Almeida | W | KO/TKO (R2, 0:36) |
| 2023-04-22 | Sergei Pavlovich | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:08) |
| 2022-07-23 | Tom Aspinall | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:15) |
| 2022-03-26 | Chris Daukaus | W | KO/TKO (R2, 0:17) |
Last 5 Fights - Rizvan Kuniev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | Hugo Cunha | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-07 | Renan Ferreira | D | Draw (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-11 | Anthony Hamilton | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:14) |
| 2021-09-28 | Edivan Santos | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:45) |
| 2020-12-20 | Vladimir Dayneko | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 71). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Curtis Blaydes Key Advantages
Takedown Volume Dominance: Blaydes averages 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Kuniev's 2.82, representing a massive 102% advantage in wrestling pressure. This elite volume has proven effective against top heavyweight competition including Derrick Lewis, Alexander Volkov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Ground Control Expertise: Once on the ground, Blaydes accumulates significant control time and ground strikes. His ability to maintain top position and work ground-and-pound has led to numerous TKO victories, particularly effective against opponents who struggle with defensive wrestling.
Chain Wrestling: Blaydes excels at chaining takedown attempts together, wearing down opponents even when initial attempts are defended. Against Kuniev's perfect 100% TDD, this persistent pressure could prove decisive as fatigue sets in.
Elite Competition History: Blaydes has faced and defeated top-tier heavyweights including Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos, and Alexander Volkov. This level of opposition far exceeds anything Kuniev has encountered in his regional career.
Octagon IQ & Adaptability: With 19 UFC fights, Blaydes has developed superior cage awareness, pacing, and mid-fight adjustments. His ability to implement different gameplans based on opponent reactions has been crucial in victories over skilled wrestlers and strikers alike.
Pressure Management: Having competed in numerous main events and title eliminators, Blaydes has proven his ability to perform under the brightest lights. Against a debuting opponent, this psychological edge could be decisive in crucial moments.
Striking Range Control: The 4-inch reach advantage (80" vs 76") allows Blaydes to control distance in striking exchanges, keeping Kuniev at the end of his jab while remaining outside of return fire range. This advantage has proven crucial in his victories over shorter opponents.
Clinch Leverage: Superior limb length provides significant advantages in clinch situations and against the cage, where Blaydes can use leverage to control position and set up takedown entries while minimizing Kuniev's striking opportunities.
Defensive Framing: Longer reach allows for better defensive framing and distance management, crucial when defending against Kuniev's higher-volume striking attack and creating opportunities for counter-wrestling.
Ground-and-Pound Specialist: Blaydes has consistently finished fights through ground strikes, demonstrating lethal effectiveness once he secures top position. His 8 KO/TKO victories often come from accumulated damage in dominant grappling positions.
Evolving Stand-up: Recent performances show significant improvement in his striking game, with knockdowns and TKO victories over Chris Daukaus and Jailton Almeida demonstrating that he's no longer a one-dimensional wrestler.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios for Curtis Blaydes
📱 Early Striking Exchanges
Kuniev's 64% higher striking output and superior accuracy (72% vs 50%) pose immediate dangers in the opening rounds. Blaydes' history of early KO losses to elite strikers like Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich highlights his vulnerability to being caught before implementing his wrestling game.
🛡️ Perfect Takedown Defense Holds
If Kuniev's 100% takedown defense proves effective against Blaydes' wrestling pressure, it forces reliance on stand-up exchanges where the statistical advantages heavily favor the Dagestani fighter in both volume and precision.
💨 Cardio & Fatigue Issues
Extended striking battles could expose cardio weaknesses, especially if forced to chase a more mobile opponent. Blaydes' wrestling-heavy style relies on controlling pace through grappling - pure striking exchanges may drain his gas tank faster than expected.
📋Likely Gameplan for Curtis Blaydes
⏰Phase 1: Early Rounds (R1-R2)
- •Establish Jab Supremacy: Use reach advantage to control distance with consistent jab work, keeping Kuniev at the end of punching range while setting up takedown entries.
- •Immediate Wrestling Pressure: Test Kuniev's takedown defense early with single and double leg attempts, forcing him to expend energy defending and potentially creating openings for later rounds.
- •Cage Control: Drive Kuniev to the fence repeatedly, using superior size and leverage to limit his striking angles while creating takedown opportunities against the cage.
🎯Phase 2: Championship Rounds (R3)
- •Accumulated Pressure: Leverage experience advantage as fight progresses, using superior conditioning and fight IQ to capitalize on Kuniev's potential debut nerves and fatigue.
- •Chain Wrestling Intensification: Increase takedown attempt frequency, chaining multiple attempts together to overwhelm Kuniev's defensive wrestling as his energy depletes.
- •Ground Control & Finish: Once takedowns are secured, prioritize control time and ground strikes, looking for TKO opportunities through accumulated damage or submission attempts if positions arise.
🧠Key Strategic Elements
Pace Control: Dictate fight rhythm through wrestling pressure • Experience Edge: Capitalize on UFC debut pressure • Physical Advantages: Maximize reach and size benefits • Defensive Striking: Avoid prolonged striking exchanges, use footwork to create takedown angles
🚀 Rizvan Kuniev Key Advantages
Surgical Accuracy: Kuniev's 72% striking accuracy far exceeds Blaydes' 50%, indicating superior shot selection and precision. This efficiency advantage becomes magnified against an opponent with documented vulnerabilities to clean, accurate striking.
Wushu Sanda Background: His championship background in Wushu Sanda provides sophisticated striking angles and techniques that Blaydes may not have encountered in previous opponents, potentially creating openings for significant strikes.
Power & Timing: The combination of accuracy and power has resulted in 6 KO/TKO victories, demonstrating finishing ability that could exploit Blaydes' chin vulnerabilities before wrestling can be implemented.
Defensive Wrestling Mastery: Perfect takedown defense neutralizes Blaydes' primary weapon, forcing the veteran into uncomfortable striking exchanges where statistical advantages heavily favor Kuniev.
Dagestani Wrestling Foundation: Training at Gorets Fight Club in Dagestan provides world-class defensive wrestling skills, likely exceeding the level Blaydes has encountered from previous opponents.
Energy Conservation: Superior defensive technique allows for energy conservation while forcing Blaydes to expend significant energy on failed takedown attempts, potentially creating striking opportunities as fatigue sets in.
High-Volume Pressure: 5.82 strikes per minute vs 3.54 creates constant pressure that could overwhelm Blaydes' 59% striking defense, especially if takedowns are consistently defended.
Accumulated Damage: Higher output combined with superior accuracy creates mathematical advantages in striking exchanges, potentially leading to knockdowns or accumulated damage over three rounds.
Pace Setting: Ability to set high striking pace forces Blaydes to match the tempo, potentially causing cardio issues for a fighter accustomed to controlling pace through wrestling.
Championship Confidence: Current EFC champion status and extensive win streak provide unshakeable confidence and belief in ability to perform under pressure against elite competition.
Nothing to Lose Mentality: UFC debut against ranked opponent creates psychological freedom to fight without pressure, while Blaydes carries expectations and pressure of maintaining ranking position.
Fresh Perspective: Lack of UFC tape makes gameplan preparation difficult for Blaydes, while Kuniev has extensive footage to study his opponent's tendencies and weaknesses.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios for Rizvan Kuniev
🎭 UFC Debut Pressure
First UFC appearance against ranked opponent could create unexpected nervousness or performance anxiety. The bright lights and increased scrutiny may affect timing and decision-making, especially in crucial moments where precision is paramount.
🌊 Overwhelming Wrestling Pressure
Blaydes' relentless chain wrestling could eventually break down even perfect takedown defense through accumulated fatigue. If the 100% TDD rate drops late in rounds, ground control could quickly shift fight momentum.
📏 Reach Disadvantage
The 4-inch reach deficit could limit ability to land clean strikes while staying out of Blaydes' takedown range. Forced entries into clinch range may create opportunities for wrestling exchanges where experience heavily favors the veteran.
📋Likely Gameplan for Rizvan Kuniev
🚀Phase 1: Early Aggression (R1-R2)
- •Test the Chin Early: Utilize superior striking accuracy to land clean shots in opening minutes, exploiting Blaydes' documented vulnerability to being hurt by precise striking before wrestling can be established.
- •Lateral Movement & Angles: Use Wushu Sanda footwork to create striking angles while staying mobile, preventing Blaydes from setting up takedown entries or establishing clinch control.
- •Stuff & Strike: Demonstrate takedown defense immediately, using successful defensive wrestling to build confidence while creating opportunities for counter-striking.
⚡Phase 2: Volume & Pressure (R2-R3)
- •Overwhelming Strike Volume: Leverage 64% output advantage to force high-pace striking exchanges, using superior conditioning to maintain pressure as Blaydes potentially fatigues from failed wrestling attempts.
- •Center Cage Control: Keep fight in center of octagon where takedown defense is most effective, avoiding prolonged periods against the cage where Blaydes' size and leverage advantages are maximized.
- •Capitalize on Momentum: If early success is achieved, press the advantage aggressively, using superior accuracy to accumulate damage and potentially score knockdowns or finish.
🧠Key Strategic Elements
Strike First Philosophy: Land early to establish respect and confidence • Defensive Wrestling: Maintain perfect TDD to force striking battle • Pace & Pressure: Use conditioning to overwhelm with volume • Smart Aggression: Be first to engage but avoid reckless exchanges
🎯 Probabilistic Fight Analysis
Curtis Blaydes Win Probability
Rizvan Kuniev Win Probability
💰Betting Odds Analysis
Model vs Market Comparison
Moneyline Odds
Fight Duration Props
Win Method Analysis
Curtis Blaydes Win Methods
Rizvan Kuniev Win Methods
🎯Top Value Betting Spots
📊 Complete Fight Analysis
👑Experience vs Momentum Dynamic
This heavyweight clash epitomizes the classic veteran vs. prospect dynamic. Blaydes' extensive UFC experience (19 fights) provides crucial advantages in cage IQ, pressure management, and adaptation against elite competition. However, Kuniev enters with unstoppable momentum from a 10+ fight win streak and the psychological edge of being current EFC champion with nothing to lose in his UFC debut.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Statistical analysis reveals contrasting fighting philosophies. Blaydes relies on elite wrestling pressure (5.69 TD per 15min) and ground control, while Kuniev counters with superior striking precision (72% vs 50% accuracy) and perfect takedown defense (100% vs 32%). Kuniev's 64% higher striking output (5.82 vs 3.54 SLpM) creates early danger, but Blaydes' reach advantage (80" vs 76") provides crucial leverage in exchanges.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on three critical phases: early striking exchanges where Kuniev's power and accuracy pose immediate threats to Blaydes' historically vulnerable chin; clinch and cage work where Blaydes' reach and wrestling meet Kuniev's defensive prowess; and championship rounds where experience becomes paramount. The 4-inch reach advantage could prove decisive in maintaining distance while setting up takedown entries.
🏆Victory Scenarios
Blaydes' path to victory involves establishing jab supremacy early, weathering Kuniev's initial striking bursts, then implementing relentless wrestling pressure to accumulate control time and ground strikes. His 72% historical win rate suggests adaptability under pressure. Kuniev must capitalize on early opportunities, utilizing his Wushu Sanda background to create angles, test Blaydes' chin early, and maintain perfect takedown defense to keep the fight standing where his accuracy advantage becomes decisive.
🔮Final Prediction (Confidence: 7/10)
Probabilistic modeling favors Blaydes 72-28, primarily through decision (25%) or late finish (40%). While Kuniev's unknowns create uncertainty and his perfect takedown defense could nullify Blaydes' primary weapon, the veteran's proven ability to adapt mid-fight and his wrestling credentials in a division where grappling often decides outcomes provide the edge. Kuniev's best chance lies in early round KO power (18% probability), exploiting Blaydes' documented chin vulnerabilities before wrestling takes over.