Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC Fight Night Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Baku • Baku, Azerbaijan
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Ignacio Bahamondes
"The Chilean Fighter"
17-5-0
🇨🇱 Rising Chilean Prospect
Training: Valle Flow Striking Academy
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ignacio Bahamondes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Jalin Turner | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:29) |
| 2024-09-14 | Manuel Torres | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:02) |
| 2024-04-06 | Christos Giagos | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:34) |
| 2023-08-05 | Ludovit Klein | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-08 | Trey Ogden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rafael Fiziev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | KO/TKO (R2, 2:03) |
| 2023-03-18 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-09 | Rafael Dos Anjos | W | KO/TKO (R5, 0:18) |
| 2021-12-04 | Brad Riddell | W | KO/TKO (R3, 2:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (70 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🇨🇱 Ignacio Bahamondes Key Advantages
4" reach advantage (75.5" vs 71.5") with 7" height advantage creates massive striking range control
Superior striking output (7.09 vs 4.85 SLpM) allows pressure fighting and volume scoring
5 years younger (27 vs 32) with current 3-fight win streak including recent submission victory
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fiziev's superior accuracy (52% vs 47%) could neutralize volume advantage with more precise strikes
Fiziev's Muay Thai clinch work could negate reach advantage in close quarters exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize 4" reach advantage to stay at distance, use jabs and long kicks to score and prevent clinches
Maintain high pace with 7.09 SLpM output to overwhelm and outwork the veteran striker
🇰🇬 Rafael Fiziev Key Advantages
Superior accuracy (52% vs 47%) means more efficient striking and harder shots landing
Elite 90% takedown defense ensures fight stays standing where his Muay Thai excels
World-class Muay Thai background with powerful kicks and clinch work to counter range
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
4" reach disadvantage could make it difficult to close distance and land power shots
Bahamondes' high output could overwhelm with volume despite lower accuracy
📋 Likely Gameplan
Focus on quality over quantity, land clean power shots when opportunities present
Use kicks and pressure to close range, work clinch and inside boxing where reach is neutralized
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic Simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights
💰Western Style Betting Odds
Moneyline
Fight Duration
Method of Victory Props
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value analysis in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 67% | Market: 56.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Estimated: ~+250
LIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 37%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Fiziev's name recognition - Market doesn't fully consider current losing streak
- • Undervalues Bahamondes' physical advantages - 7" height and 4" reach
- • Momentum bias - Bahamondes' 3-fight finish streak vs Fiziev's 3 losses
- • Ignores superior defensive statistics - Bahamondes' striking defense (58% vs 49%)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Simulation of 100 hypothetical fights based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bahamondes
50% of his wins | Superior volume + power
16.7% of his wins | Superior cardio
33.3% of his wins | Grappling ability
💥Outcome Distribution - Fiziev
50% of his wins | Technical precision
50% of his wins | Cardio endurance
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯Progressive Dominance - Bahamondes
- • First round: Controls distance with reach
- • Round 2-3: Cumulative volume (7.09 vs 4.85 SLpM)
- • Late finish: Opportunity in final rounds
- • Physical advantages: Emphasized over time
⚡Window of Opportunity - Fiziev
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum precision danger
- • Close exchanges: Superior Muay Thai technique
- • Must establish early: Before physical advantages dominate
- • Precision: Leverage his 52% vs 47% accuracy
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on Bahamondes' clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant physical advantages (7"/4")
- • Current 3-fight finish streak
- • Superior striking volume
- • Better striking defense (58% vs 49%)
- • Superior ELO rating (66.9 points)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fiziev's superior technical precision
- • Experience in big fights
- • Danger in close exchanges
- • Elite adaptation ability
- • Unpredictable nature of MMA
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout presents a fascinating clash between Bahamondes' youthful physical advantages and Fiziev's veteran technical precision. Statistical data clearly favors Bahamondes with decisive advantages in height (7"), reach (4"), striking volume (46% higher), and superior striking defense.
The betting market appears to significantly underestimate Bahamondes' physical advantages while overvaluing Fiziev's name recognition. Our model indicates a 67% probability for Bahamondes, notably higher than the market's implied probability of 56.5%, creating exceptional value.
Prediction: Bahamondes demonstrates that youth and physical advantages overcome technical experience, using his superior reach and striking volume to control distance and accumulate damage. Although Fiziev presents danger in close exchanges, Bahamondes' current momentum and athletic capabilities prevail in a convincing victory.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Physical Dominance vs Technical Precision
This lightweight clash showcases a textbook case of physical gifts versus refined technique. Bahamondes' 7-inch height and 4-inch reach advantages create an enormous striking canvas, amplified by his youth (27 vs 32) and superior cardio conditioning. His 7.09 SLpM output rate significantly outpaces Fiziev's 4.85, while his better striking defense (58% vs 49%) minimizes return fire. However, Fiziev's world-class Muay Thai foundation and 52% striking accuracy make every shot count, backed by elite 90% takedown defense that keeps fights in his wheelhouse.
📈Momentum & Form Analysis
The tale of two trajectories couldn't be starker. Bahamondes enters riding a career-defining 3-fight finish streak, including spectacular first-round stoppages and a submission victory over ranked Jalin Turner. His 83.3% finish rate and 2.2-round average fight duration demonstrate elite finishing ability. Conversely, Fiziev's 3-fight losing streak - featuring two decision losses to Justin Gaethje and a TKO loss to Gamrot - raises serious questions about his current form and defensive durability at this stage of his career.
⚡Critical Strategic Factors
Range management becomes the defining element in this matchup. Bahamondes' reach advantage allows him to control distance with jabs, front kicks, and leg strikes while maintaining safety from Fiziev's power shots. His superior output rate creates constant pressure that has historically broken opponents. Fiziev must overcome significant physical disadvantages through superior technique, utilizing his clinch work (11% of significant strikes in clinch) and body attack precision (40% body strike percentage) to close the athletic gap.
🎯Model Confidence & Key Variables
Our 68% confidence in Bahamondes stems from multiple converging factors: his 66.9-point ELO advantage (1165.3 vs 1098.4), superior defensive metrics, and the stylistic nightmare his length presents to shorter strikers. The large cage in Baku amplifies these advantages. Key variables include Fiziev's ability to close distance without absorbing excessive damage and whether his precision can overcome Bahamondes' volume advantage before cardio becomes a factor.
🏁Final Prediction & Betting Conviction
Our model projects Bahamondes victory in 68% of simulated scenarios, driven primarily by KO/TKO finishes (38%) where his volume and reach overwhelm Fiziev's defense. The market's near-even pricing (-115 vs -105) presents significant value on Bahamondes, as it fails to adequately price his physical advantages and current momentum. Expect a competitive striking battle with Bahamondes controlling range and pace, ultimately breaking down Fiziev's defense through sustained pressure and finishing with power strikes or submission opportunities.
Model Confidence Rating
High confidence based on clear statistical advantages, significant physical edge, momentum differential, and stylistic matchup favoring the rangy, high-volume striker. The market mispricing provides additional conviction in our analysis.