Nurullo Aliev vs Shaqueme Rock
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open their full analytics profile, including historical fights, regional tape context and submission/wrestling breakdowns.
Nurullo Aliev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods (Model View)
Win Round Distribution
Shaqueme Rock
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods (Model View)
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Nurullo Aliev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Joe Solecki | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-25 | Rafael Alves | W | Decision (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-20 | Josh Wick | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:45) |
| 2022-06-01 | Regional Opponent | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-01 | Regional Opponent | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:20) |
Last 5 Fights – Shaqueme Rock
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Attila Korkmaz | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Jaroslav Pokorny | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 3:06) |
| 2024-04-20 | Stefano Catacoli | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 1:47) |
| 2023-07-28 | Jan Malach | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 2:08) |
| 2023-04-29 | Arthur Lima | D | Draw (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Aliev is graded as the more complete MMA technician in terms of defensive layers and positional awareness, while Rock's score is driven by explosive submission offense and opportunistic grappling. Rock's composite grappling far outstrips his striking metrics, whereas Aliev's toolkit is more balanced and purpose-built to win minutes rather than chase finishes.
💪Cardio Score
Cardio clearly favors Aliev in structured, three-round fights – his 11:32 average fight time and decision-heavy record show he can maintain pace and control deep into rounds. Rock has finished most opponents inside five minutes, leaving his true long-fight cardio somewhat untested against UFC-level wrestling.
🎯Overall Rating
Overall, the model views this as a classic control-vs-finish dynamic: Aliev projects as the better round-winner across most simulations, while Rock carries a disproportionately large share of submission finish equity. The gap in overall rating reflects how often control-based fighting wins on cards compared to high-variance submission hunting.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Control wrestler vs submission hunter: can Aliev's discipline and cardio outlast Rock's early chaos and finishing threat?
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Distance Dynamics
The 30‑ft Apex cage subtly favors Aliev's measured wrestling entries over Rock's scramble-driven chaos. Extra space allows Aliev to pick clean angles, walk Rock to the fence and avoid rushed shots that expose his neck. Rock benefits from that same space when he forces center-cage exchanges and stand-ups, but he typically needs opponents to over-commit or get greedy in transitions; Aliev's style is built explicitly to avoid that.
🎯Technical Contrast
Aliev brings elite defensive metrics for a wrestler: 58% strike defense and just 1.07 strikes absorbed per minute, paired with 2.6 TD/15 at 54% accuracy. Rock owns the more dangerous grappling profile by far – 3.5 Sub/15 and 9 career submissions, many in Round 1 – but his striking defense and damage profile (2.8 SApM, 50% StrDef) are much looser. In short, Aliev is built to reliably win rounds; Rock is built to end fights.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Critical layers are first-shot head position, scramble quality and late-round composure. If Aliev keeps his head tight to the chest and uses doubles/body locks along the fence, he can rack up long pockets of control with minimal risk. If entries get sloppy or panic shots appear, Rock's guillotine/triangle/RNC chains immediately spike finish probability. Round 3 is the swing: if Aliev is still fresh, his control edge compounds heavily; if he slows or gets careless with stands, Rock's opportunism stays live.
🏁Final Prediction
The model leans firmly toward Aliev: his control tools, cardio and damage prevention win far more simulations on the cards than Rock's submission hunting does by finish. Rock remains a real threat early – particularly in scrambles and front- headlock situations – but those moments represent a minority of modeled outcomes. Over three rounds, the safer and more repeatable path is Aliev banking minutes with disciplined wrestling.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Checking whether the market correctly prices control vs submission volatility.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model expects Aliev to win mostly on the cards; if decision props are priced near even money or better, they align tightly with the control-based projection.
Control-heavy fights in a large cage skew toward decisions; if the market underprices the over relative to our 63%+ modeled decision rate, it offers solid structural value.
Rock's best path is a submission in early scrambles; if sub props drift well above +400, they can be used as small, tightly-controlled exposure to the chaos side of the matchup.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical simulations blending finish equity, control time and durability.
🏆Outcome Distribution – Nurullo Aliev
Ground-and-pound accumulation if Rock struggles to escape cleanly.
Primary path – sustained top control, low damage taken and steady output.
Less common, but live if Rock fatigues and exposes his neck during stand-ups.
💥Outcome Distribution – Shaqueme Rock
Primary path – guillotines, RNCs and front-choke chains off scrambles.
Rare path – requires out-landing Aliev and stuffing most takedowns.
Low-frequency path from counters or attritional ground strikes.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3-Round Lightweight Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity – Shaqueme Rock
- • Hunt necks on every entry: guillotines, anacondas and D'Arces anytime Aliev's head drifts off-line.
- • Force scrambles: stand quickly, roll through positions and deny static top control that bleeds the clock.
- • Front-headlock hub: treat every sprawled shot as an invitation to clamp on chokes or spin to the back.
🎯Progressive Dominance – Nurullo Aliev
- • Safe wrestling protocol: doubles/body locks to the fence, head tight to chest, pass before striking.
- • Minimize chaos: avoid extended scrambles and give Rock as few opportunistic transitions as possible.
- • Bank minutes: trust his superior cardio and defense to carry rounds even without big damage spikes.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Balancing Aliev's proven control game against Rock's volatile submission threat.
Control metrics and UFC experience favor Aliev, but Rock's submission chains keep non-trivial upset equity on the table.
Supporting Factors
- • 2.6 TD/15 at 54% accuracy with elite defensive stats.
- • Proven three-round engine and decision-heavy win profile.
- • Large cage reduces forced collisions and favors structure.
- • Rock has limited decision-winning history; needs finishes.
Risk Factors
- • Rock's 9 submission wins and 82% Round 1 finish rate.
- • Aliev's TDD metric (0%) is still a tiny-sample anomaly.
- • Any lapse in head position or scramble discipline is fatal.
- • Three-round volatility if early minutes are extremely close.
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup pits a disciplined, control-focused wrestler with UFC experience against a hyper-aggressive submission finisher whose best work has come on the regional scene. Our modelling concludes that over three rounds, Aliev's ability to win minutes with safe wrestling and low-damage defense produces far more winning scenarios than Rock's narrower but dangerous submission-based paths.
Final Prediction: Nurullo Aliev by Unanimous Decision most often, with Rock's submission threat live primarily in early scrambles. From a betting perspective, Aliev moneyline is justified as a solid favorite, with additional interest on his decision prop and small, price-sensitive sprinkles on Rock by submission to capture the high-volatility side of the distribution.