Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Nicolas Dalby
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open deep historical fight data, including late-round performance and opponent quality.
Fighter Metrics Snapshot
Victory Methods (Model View)
Win Round Distribution
Nicolas Dalby
"Danish Dynamite"
23-6-1 • Welterweight
Durable kickboxer with insane toughness and late-fight rallies
Fighter Metrics Snapshot
Victory Methods (Model View)
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Saygid Izagakhmaev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-19 | Shinya Aoki | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:26) |
| 2022-09-29 | Zhang Lipeng | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-01-14 | James Nakashima | W | Submission (Brabo Choke) (R2, 2:17) |
| 2021-09-17 | Maxim Butorin | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R2, 4:41) |
| 2021-05-29 | Paulo Cesar Oliveira | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R3, 4:27) |
Last 5 Fights – Nicolas Dalby
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Randy Brown | L | KO (Punch) (R2, 1:39) |
| 2024-06-22 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Gabriel Bonfim | W | TKO (Knees and Punches) (R2, 4:33) |
| 2023-06-17 | Muslim Salikhov | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-21 | Warlley Alves | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Izagakhmaev grades as the more complete technical fighter, with a significantly stronger grappling composite and well- rounded enough striking to set up his entries. Dalby's technique is solid everywhere, but his tools are built more around durability, experience and cardio rather than raw advantage in any one phase.
💪Cardio Score
Cardio is effectively a wash: Izagakhmaev has shown strong pace in grappling-heavy efforts, while Dalby is famous for late rallies and toughness over three rounds. Over 100 simulations, neither fighter holds a huge endurance edge, but Dalby's history in wars slightly bumps his late-round reliability in pure cardio terms.
🎯Overall Rating
Overall, Izagakhmaev is graded as the more dangerous and dominant fighter when his wrestling game is clicking, but Dalby is much more proven against UFC-level opposition and extremely difficult to break. The matchup becomes a question of whether Izagakhmaev can consistently translate his skill set into round-winning control without fading or making mistakes.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Izagakhmaev's wrestling pressure vs Dalby's proven durability and late-fight resilience in a large cage.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Distance Dynamics
In a 30‑ft cage, Dalby gets more real estate to circle, reset and avoid being stuck on the fence, which historically has helped his game. Izagakhmaev, however, has the style and wrestling volume to compress that space – walking Dalby down, forcing clinch exchanges and chaining takedowns from body locks and singles. Over 100 simulations, the cage size reduces the probability of one-way domination, but once Izagakhmaev gets reliable entries to the hips, geography still tends to favor him.
🎯Technical Contrast
Izagakhmaev owns the far more threatening grappling profile: 2.0 TD/15, 40% TDAcc and a much higher composite grappling score. Dalby's wrestling is serviceable but geared more toward staying upright than proactively winning grappling battles. On the feet, Dalby's output and defense (3.4 SLpM, 57% StrDef) make him a tricky target who can bank optics in extended striking minutes, while Izagakhmaev's stand-up is mostly a delivery system for clinch and takedown entries. Our model sees Izagakhmaev winning decisively in scenarios where he gets early and repeated access to top; Dalby wins when he keeps the fight primarily striking and denies clean finishes on shots.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The key layers are first-level takedown defense, fence wrestling and third-round resilience. If Dalby can consistently stuff or immediately bounce from the first layer of takedowns, forcing resets and making Izagakhmaev work, his late-fight cardio and pressure striking become much more relevant. If Izagakhmaev can repeatedly get to body lock and mat-return sequences, he can bank long stretches of control and blunt Dalby's offense. Third-round optics matter a lot in this matchup given Dalby's reputation for rallies and the judges' tendency to reward visible damage over quieter control.
🏁Final Prediction
Across simulations, Izagakhmaev wins more often by imposing his wrestling, top control and submission threats – especially if he can establish those patterns early. Dalby's path is to survive the worst of the grappling, drag the fight deeper and leverage his experience, durability and striking volume to sway judges. The 61–39 model lean reflects the belief that fully world-class wrestling typically travels well, but also respects Dalby's proven ability to make fights closer than they look on paper.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Evaluating whether wrestling dominance vs veteran intangibles is properly priced.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
If market undervalues sustained wrestling dominance and over- weights Dalby's intangibles, straight Izagakhmaev around -150/-160 can still be justified by skill edges.
Dalby is extremely hard to finish; a large chunk of Izagakhmaev wins come via control-heavy decisions rather than early stoppages.
If Izagakhmaev's cardio is overestimated or he struggles to hold top, Dalby's late-fight rallies and damage can swing momentum – worth small, price-dependent exposure.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical simulations based on finish equity, control time and durability.
💥Outcome Distribution – Saygid Izagakhmaev
Ground-and-pound from dominant positions, especially if Dalby struggles to stand.
Back takes and front chokes off scrambled stand-ups and mat returns.
Primary path – dominant control and damage without necessarily forcing the finish.
🏆Outcome Distribution – Nicolas Dalby
Survives the wrestling storm and wins optics with volume and damage late.
Late attritional finish if Izagakhmaev slows badly or is forced into extended striking.
Very rare – opportunistic subs only if massive mistakes occur.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3-Round Welterweight Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity – Saygid Izagakhmaev
- • Early wrestling chains: secure top and establish that Dalby must constantly defend shots.
- • Cage mat returns: use the fence to drag Dalby back down repeatedly and sap his legs.
- • Control over chaos: avoid wild striking brawls where Dalby's experience and chin thrive.
🎯Progressive Dominance – Nicolas Dalby
- • Defensive layering: focus on underhooks, whizzers and quick stands rather than just accepting positions.
- • Body work & volume: tax Izagakhmaev's cardio with body shots and high output when he is forced to strike.
- • R3 surge: trust his chin and experience to push a pace late that Izagakhmaev may struggle to match if the wrestling has not fully broken him.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Weighing Izagakhmaev's skill edges against Dalby's veteran chaos factor and durability.
Clear lean to Izagakhmaev when we trust the wrestling to show up, but Dalby's intangibles and durability force a degree of humility in projection.
Supporting Factors
- • Significant grappling and control edge for Izagakhmaev.
- • Better submission threat and top-game finishing ability.
- • Dalby historically hittable and prone to slow starts.
- • Wrestling tends to be a reliable, minute-winning weapon.
Risk Factors
- • Dalby's legendary toughness and late-fight surges.
- • Limited UFC sample on Izagakhmaev under bright lights.
- • Potential judging preference for damage over control.
- • Three-round volatility if wrestling success is inconsistent.
🏁Executive Summary
Izagakhmaev brings a style that historically scores very well with judges when executed cleanly: takedowns, ride time and real submission threat. Dalby, however, is uniquely resilient and capable of turning fights with sheer will, output and late pressure once opponents slow down.
Prediction: Izagakhmaev by decision or late ground-based stoppage most often, with Dalby as a dangerous underdog in any scenario where takedown defense holds up and the fight becomes a war of attrition.