Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria
UFC Qatar • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open their full analytics profile with UFC striking, grappling and round-by-round history.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Bekzat Almakhan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Brad Katona | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:04) |
| 2024-03-02 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Yan Ferraz | W | KO - Punch (R3, 4:58) |
| 2023-07-22 | Mateus Rodrigues Gloria | W | KO - Head Kick (R2, 0:07) |
| 2023-02-25 | Mauro Mastromarini | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights – Aleksandre Topuria
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Colby Thicknesse | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Johan Segas | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:27) |
| 2022-03-12 | Alberto Ibanez | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:54) |
| 2021-12-08 | Lucas Tenorio | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:48) |
| 2015-05-29 | Ivo Ivanov | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 4:10) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Blend of striking and grappling composites (32.0/15.0 vs 78.0/68.0). It shows the gap between a one-dimensional power puncher and a well-rounded technician.
💪Cardio Score
Built from average fight duration, pace and finishing profile. Topuria's 72/100 vs Almakhan's 60/100 reflects who is more likely to be winning exchanges once the early KO window closes.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio. A compact view of who has more sustainable tools to win three-round minutes instead of relying on single shots.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted blend of SLpM, accuracy, defense and damage absorbed. Topuria's 78 vs Almakhan's 32 captures a fourfold volume edge (2.73 vs 0.68 SLpM) with better accuracy and far cleaner defense.
🤼Grappling Composite
Built from TDs/15, TD accuracy, TD defense and submissions. Almakhan offers almost no offensive wrestling, while Topuria brings a credible Plan B with 100% TDD and functional takedowns to shut the fight down when needed.
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Model framing of Almakhan's KO moments vs Topuria's control-heavy minutes in a large cage.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Distance Dynamics
The 30-foot cage amplifies Topuria's ability to manage range and reset safely after scoring combinations, while making Almakhan's job of cornering and forcing pocket wars much harder. When the fight plays out at mid-range, the combination of Topuria's 4x volume edge and 70% striking defense means that most minutes are decisively his; Almakhan simply does not land enough clean shots to win rounds without a knockdown. For the underdog, the geometry of the cage turns into a puzzle he must solve with disciplined cage cutting and risk acceptance in the opening 5–7 minutes.
🎯Technical & Defensive Contrast
Statistically this is a matchup between a low-volume power hunter and a significantly more complete technician. Almakhan brings a 75% finish rate and genuine one-shot power, but it is attached to 0.68 SLpM, 41% accuracy and 32% defense – numbers that collapse in extended exchanges. Topuria, by contrast, combines 2.73 SLpM at 51% accuracy with far better defense, plus a functional wrestling game he can switch to whenever the stand-up gets too chaotic. The model is effectively weighting raw power against layered skill and durability, and in a three-round sample the latter tends to win unless the early chaos explodes in Almakhan's favor.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The critical axes are early pocket exchanges, Topuria's exit discipline and whether wrestling is needed as a circuit-breaker. Almakhan must generate at least one sustained brawl sequence in R1–R2 where his power can override the technical gap; if those exchanges never materialize, his win probability collapses into low single digits. Topuria simply needs to maintain range, avoid predictable exits that can be timed, and be willing to lean on grappling any time the variance spikes uncomfortably high. Once fatigue appears on Almakhan and the pace shifts to structured striking or wrestling phases, Topuria's edges compound rapidly.
🏁Final Prediction
Across simulations, Topuria wins the clear majority by either decision or late attritional finish, with Almakhan's victories clustering heavily around early knockouts in the first half of the fight. The matchup can be summarized as moments vs minutes: Almakhan owns the most dangerous moment in the fight, but Topuria owns almost all of the reliable minutes if that moment never lands. The projection leans firmly toward a Topuria win on the scorecards (or via late finish once cardio and defense diverge), with the caveat that Round 1 carries elevated KO variance that must be respected in any betting strategy.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Where KO volatility creates value and where the market is already efficient on the favorite.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
Market Totals Snapshot
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model concentrates most of Almakhan's win equity into early knockouts; wide KO numbers can be justified as small-stake , high-variance punts.
Primary path in simulations: range control, safe volume and the ability to flip to wrestling if needed. Often fairly priced but anchors parlays and ladders.
If Almakhan fails to land early, defensive breakdowns and cardio fade in R2–R3 open up attritional finish scenarios for the favorite at plus money in some markets.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bekzat Almakhan
Primary path via explosive bursts in early pocket exchanges.
Low-frequency outcome; requires unusually efficient damage accumulation without a finish.
Almost no offensive grappling history; modeled as negligible.
💥Outcome Distribution - Aleksandre Topuria
Core route via volume, defense and occasional takedowns.
Accumulated damage and late sequences against a fading defender.
Opportunistic subs if the fight becomes heavily wrestling-oriented late.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bekzat Almakhan
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum KO probability before Topuria's reads and pace control settle in.
- • Pocket wars: Force set-feet exchanges rather than chasing from the outside.
- • Cornering sequences: Effective cage cutting to deny lateral exits and trap Topuria against the fence.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Aleksandre Topuria
- • Minute winning: Jab, low kicks and 2–3 strike combinations without staying in the pocket.
- • Circuit-breaker: Timely takedowns whenever striking variance spikes too high.
- • Late leverage: Cardio and defensive advantage tilt R3 heavily in his favor for both decisions and late finishes.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
How strongly the model leans toward Topuria's structured routes vs Almakhan's early chaos.
Strong lean toward Topuria on minutes; meaningful but bounded KO volatility from Almakhan.
Supporting Factors
- • 4x striking volume edge with better accuracy and defense.
- • Clear technical and cardio advantage in R2–R3.
- • Multi-phase toolkit with wrestling safety valve.
- • Large cage geometry favors range-control gameplans.
Risk Factors
- • Genuine one-shot power from Almakhan in early exchanges.
- • Pocket brawls or ego-driven firefights spike variance.
- • Predictable exit patterns could be timed for counters.
- • Overconfidence and showboating risk late in a dominant fight.
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup is structured around a simple but powerful idea: Almakhan can absolutely knock Topuria out if he drags him into a messy pocket war early, but every additional minute that passes without that happening shifts the probability curve heavily toward the favorite. The statistical edges in volume, defense, cardio and grappling all line up on Topuria's side, especially in a large cage where he can lean on range management.
Prediction: Topuria by Decision most often, with a meaningful chance of late finish once Almakhan's cardio and defense erode. From a betting perspective, the optimal construction pairs a Topuria moneyline/decision core with small hedge exposure on Almakhan KO/TKO in R1–R2 to account for the early volatility built into his power profile.