Felipe Lima vs Daniel Marcos
UFC Qatar • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click on each fighter's name or profile image to open their dedicated analytics page with full UFC stats, fight history, and advanced striking / grappling dashboards.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Felipe Lima
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Payton Talbott | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Miles Johns | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Muhammadjon Naimov | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 1:15) |
| 2023-07-28 | Jonas Magard | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-11-20 | Evgeniy Odnorog | W | KO/TKO - Flying Knee (R1, 0:00) |
Last 5 Fights – Daniel Marcos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Montel Jackson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Adrian Yanez | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | John Castaneda | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Davey Grant | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-21 | Saimon Oliveira | W | KO/TKO - Knee to the Body and Punches (R2, 2:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (62 vs 81) and Grappling Composite (71 vs 54). Captures how complete each fighter is technically, balancing offense and defense across both phases.
💪Cardio Score
Blends average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate and finish rate to quantify how well each fighter carries their game over three rounds of bantamweight pace.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio scores. A compact summary of skill plus conditioning that avoids overweighting one spectacular attribute or a single anomalous fight.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted blend of SLpM, accuracy, defense and the inverse of strikes absorbed per minute. Favors efficient volume strikers who create offense without paying a huge defensive tax.
🤼Grappling Composite
Built from TDs per 15, TD accuracy, TD defense and submissions per 15. Lima scores via chain wrestling and submissions; Marcos via defensive stability and mat awareness.
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven model for striker-vs-grappler dynamics in a large bantamweight cage.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📏Physical & Stylistic Dynamics
This bantamweight clash showcases a classic striker vs grappler matchup in a large 30-foot cage that heavily favors the rangy striker. Marcos enters with significant physical advantages including a 1-inch height edge, 1-inch reach edge, and 2-inch leg-reach edge—critical margins in a division where every inch matters. Combined with a 78% striking volume advantage (5.11 vs 2.86 SLpM) and superior accuracy (53% vs 45%), he can build a systematic minute-winning game in space. Lima, by contrast, brings a wrestling and submission profile that only truly activates once he closes distance and converts entries into control sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a sharp contrast in fighting philosophies. Marcos' volume and accuracy produce a high-confidence decision route: he out-lands Lima by nearly 2 significant strikes per minute at higher efficiency, making it difficult for Lima to keep up on scorecards in a pure kickboxing battle. However, Lima's offensive grappling (2.18 TD/15 vs 0.99) and exclusive submission threat (0.7 vs 0.0 Sub/15) present a strong counternarrative: if he can cross the striking gap and pin Marcos to the fence, his chain wrestling and mat control can swing rounds decisively. The matchup becomes a tug-of-war between Marcos' space management and Lima's ability to turn exchanges into extended grappling sequences.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be decided in three phases: early space negotiation, mid-fight grappling adjustments, and third-round cardio execution. Early, Marcos' reach advantage, leg kicks and jab give him the tools to establish range and force Lima into longer entries; if he wins these minutes, judges will lean heavily toward his volume. In the mid-fight, Lima must start landing clean entries off level changes and cage cuts to offset the striking deficit and create submission or heavy control time. Round 3 functions as the swing frame: Lima's win condition relies on grappling dominance and possible neck attacks, whereas Marcos wants an open-space, high-output finish that reinforces his minute-winning profile.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Marcos' primary victory path is a clean decision: sustained volume, calf kicks to slow entries and disciplined takedown defense that keeps the fight at his range, especially in the big cage. Lima's win condition is narrower but potent—he must generate several meaningful grappling sequences where he either dominates control time or creates genuine submission threats, particularly in later scrambles. The 64–36 split reflects both perspectives: Marcos wins most simulations via scorecards, while Lima's high-impact grappling wins fewer simulations but often by clear, decisive moments when it does succeed.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comparison of BetOnline moneyline and totals vs our model probabilities.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
Model Totals & Distance Props
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model: ~48% decision share of his 64% overall – clean minute-winning profile in a large cage.
Durable profiles and decision-heavy histories support a distance-heavy outcome space.
Model allocates around 10% to Lima subs—live in scramble-heavy scripts despite Marcos' TDD.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Daniel Marcos
Primary minute-winning route in space via volume striking.
Accumulation or clean counters after failed Lima entries.
Rare scenario given current grappling profile.
🏆Outcome Distribution - Felipe Lima
Control-heavy round stealing via clinch and mat returns.
Less likely given historical finishing profiles.
Neck attacks and scramble-driven finishes when wrestling sequences snowball.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Daniel Marcos
- • First 7–8 minutes: Highest minute-winning profile and counter lanes.
- • Keep space: Pivot off the fence, deny extended clinch and mat returns.
- • Leg attacks: Calf kicks to slow Lima's pressure and entries.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Felipe Lima
- • Round 3 focus: Control sequences and rides to bank late minutes.
- • Chain attempts: Re-enter after sprawls to avoid reset and preserve top potential.
- • Submission threat: Opportunistic neck attacks in scrambles where Marcos is least comfortable.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence in Marcos' large-cage minute winning vs Lima's narrower, but potent, submission paths.
Clear lean toward Marcos via volume and accuracy; Lima remains live through control and submission leverage.
Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with superior accuracy and shot selection.
- • Strong 84% takedown defense against a low-accuracy wrestler.
- • Large cage amplifies reach and movement advantages.
- • Three-round format supports minute-winning striking approach.
Risk Factors
- • Lima's chain-wrestling and ride-time optics.
- • Cardio tax on stuffed entries can cut both ways.
- • Judge optics around fence control vs damage.
- • Bantamweight volatility and scramble chaos.
Executive Summary
📊Statistical Foundation
This bantamweight clash presents a compelling statistical narrative that strongly favors Marcos' minute-winning approach. His 78% striking volume advantage (5.11 vs 2.86 SLpM) combined with superior accuracy (53% vs 45%) creates a systematic method for dominating scorecards through steady accumulation. While Lima's grappling credentials offer legitimate paths to victory via a 120% takedown volume edge (2.18 vs 0.99 TD/15) and exclusive submission threat (0.7 vs 0.0 Sub/15), the large 30-foot cage significantly amplifies Marcos' physical advantages and striking efficiency.
🎯Tactical Dynamics
The tactical framework centers on Marcos' ability to maintain distance and exploit his 1" height, 1" reach and 2" leg-reach advantages to dictate where and how exchanges occur. His 84% takedown defense provides a sturdy base against Lima's wrestling, while his jab, combinations and calf kicks allow him to rack up significant strikes without overcommitting. Lima's path to victory requires consistent success with his entries—turning open-space exchanges into clinch, fence and mat sequences where his submission game and control optics can override the striking deficit. Any prolonged open-field kickboxing battle heavily favors Marcos; any bout that devolves into scramble-heavy grappling favors Lima.
⚡Environmental Factors
The large 30-foot cage is a decisive environmental lever in this matchup. It provides Marcos with ample room to circle, reset and punish failed entries while forcing Lima to travel more distance for each takedown attempt. This spatial dynamic reduces the absolute number of grappling opportunities and increases the cardio tax on Lima's low-accuracy shots (27% TDAcc), particularly if Marcos is disciplined about framing and pivoting off the fence. The three-round format further reinforces Marcos' ability to win on volume and shot selection while limiting the time horizon for Lima to find a submission.
🔮Prediction Framework
The model's 64–36 split favoring Marcos encapsulates both the statistical edge and the environmental context. Marcos' primary route is a high-output, low-drama decision where he keeps the fight in space, wins minutes with volume and denies sustained grappling sequences. Lima remains very live in scramble-driven scenarios, particularly if he can turn Round 3 into a control-and-submission frame. However, the burden of execution is significantly higher on the grappler in this cage configuration, and historical data on both fighters suggests that Marcos is more likely to sustain his winning conditions over 15 minutes.
🏆Final Assessment
Primary Prediction: Marcos by Decision – his superior striking metrics, physical advantages and the large cage environment combine to create a clear path via systematic minute winning and distance control.
Hedge Path: Lima by Submission – remains live through opportunistic grappling sequences, especially in late scrambles where his superior submission instincts can override Marcos' otherwise robust defensive metrics.