Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Qatar
Saturday, November 22, 2025
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Volkan Oezdemir
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alonzo Menifield
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Volkan Oezdemir
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Carlos Ulberg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Johnny Walker | W | KO - Punch to Head At Distance (R1, 2:28) |
| 2023-09-02 | Bogdan Guskov | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:46) |
| 2022-10-22 | Nikita Krylov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-23 | Paul Craig | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alonzo Menifield
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Oumar Sy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Julius Walker | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Azamat Murzakanov | L | KO/TKO - Punches to Head At Distance (R2, 3:18) |
| 2024-05-11 | Carlos Ulberg | L | KO/TKO - Punches to Head At Distance (R1, 0:12) |
| 2023-12-16 | Dustin Jacoby | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot cage gives Oezdemir significant room to circle, reset and force exchanges on his preferred terms. His 4.95 SLpM and footwork scale well in a big cage, allowing him to accumulate clean scoring minutes while avoiding prolonged brawls and fence traps where Menifield's one-shot power is most dangerous. When the fight stays in open space, Oezdemir's jab, straight right and low kicks create a steady scoring edge without offering Menifield many clean, set-feet counter opportunities.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Oezdemir holds the more sustainable minute-winning profile through superior output (4.95 vs 3.79 SLpM) and slightly better defensive metrics (55% vs 51% StrDef, 80% vs 78% TDD), letting him land more while absorbing comparable damage over time. Menifield answers with elite early accuracy (53% StrAcc), real one-punch KO power and a higher submission rate, which gives him meaningful finishing equity in the first half of the fight. Across three rounds though, the combination of Oezdemir's volume, cardio and defensive structure generally out-scores Menifield's more moment-driven offense on judges' cards.
🏁Final Projection
Simulations suggest that if Oezdemir survives Menifield's round-one surge and avoids being stuck on the fence, his cumulative minute-winning tools take over down the stretch. Menifield's clearest paths cluster around early KO and opportunistic front-headlock or guillotine sequences when Oezdemir's defensive discipline slips. Given the large cage, Oezdemir's volume and defensive edge, the model leans 64–36 in his favor, with decision and late KO as primary outcomes and Menifield live as a high-volatility underdog early.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Volkan Oezdemir
💥Outcome Distribution - Alonzo Menifield
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Oezdemir in round-winning, with first-round KO volatility from Menifield as the main risk.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with better strike defense
- • Superior takedown defense (80%)
- • Large-cage dynamics favor space management
- • Proven minutes vs ranked opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Menifield's early KO power and accuracy
- • Front-headlock and guillotine threats on messy entries
- • Light heavyweight volatility
- • Potential output troughs if pressured to the fence
🏁Executive Summary
Oezdemir owns the sustainable minute-winning profile and better defensive wrestling, while Menifield carries genuine early knockout and opportunistic submission danger. Over three rounds in a big cage, the model leans 64–36 toward Oezdemir, with decision and late KO as primary routes and round-one volatility the main risk.
Prediction: Oezdemir by Decision or KO/TKO, with Menifield's best hedge path coming via early KO if he can force chaotic exchanges along the fence.