Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Qatar
Saturday, November 22, 2025
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Jack Hermansson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Myktybek Orolbai
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jack Hermansson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | KO/TKO (R1, 4:21) |
| 2024-02-10 | Joe Pyfer | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Roman Dolidze | L | KO/TKO (R2, 4:06) |
| 2022-07-23 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-05 | Sean Strickland | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Myktybek Orolbai
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Tofiq Musayev | W | Submission - Kimura (R1, 4:35) |
| 2024-10-26 | Mateusz Rebecki | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Elves Brener | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Uros Medic | W | Submission - Neck Crank (R2, 4:12) |
| 2023-10-27 | Hayward Charles | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:41) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 52) and Grappling Composite (66 vs 84). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical profiles for both fighters.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking and takedown pace, and finish rate. Hermansson's 11:09 average fight time vs Orolbai's 10:57 reflects comparable cardio, but Hermansson's minute-winning pace at range slightly improves his late-round sustainability.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities, balancing Hermansson's volume striking and defensive wrestling against Orolbai's pressure grappling and submission threat over three rounds.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jack Hermansson Key Advantages
Hermansson's 73" height and 77.5" reach allow him to control distance with jab–kick combinations in the 30ft cage. His frame lets him frame off clinch entries and reset to center, forcing Orolbai to shoot from further out and absorb clean strikes before getting to his preferred positions.
With 5.13 SLpM vs 3.11, Hermansson owns the superior volume profile while still defending 57% of strikes. Over three rounds, that differential creates strong scorecard optics whenever he keeps the fight at range and denies extended grappling sequences.
Hermansson's 81% takedown defense forces Orolbai to chain multiple attempts rather than succeeding on clean entries. Even when taken down, his scrambling and stand-up instincts reduce control-time windows and let him re‑establish the striking game that favors his style.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Orolbai's 5.13 TD/15 and strong mat-returns can turn stuffed entries into prolonged fence rides and top control that steal rounds. If Hermansson spends too long defending instead of resetting, his volume and range advantages get neutralized.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish jab–low kick patterns early, frame off collar ties, and pivot back to center. The more resets Hermansson forces, the more his volume, reach and cardio stack up against Orolbai's explosive but energy-taxing entries.
🚀 Myktybek Orolbai Key Advantages
Orolbai's 5.13 takedowns per 15 minutes represent a huge activity edge over Hermansson's 1.5. If he can consistently connect entries to fence mat-returns, he can bank control time, drain Hermansson's base and open up submission sequences.
With live kimura and neck–crank chains, Orolbai doesn't just hold position—he threatens to finish. That forces Hermansson to devote more energy to defense and reduces his ability to scramble freely when he does get grounded.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Hermansson repeatedly stuffs first-layer shots and circles off the fence, Orolbai is forced into a low-output striking match where Hermansson's 5.13 SLpM and length dominate the scoring.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Orolbai's best path is to drive Hermansson to the fence early, chaining snatch singles into bodylocks and mat returns, then building control time and submission threats from top.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jack Hermansson
Primary path via range, volume, and resets.
Attritional damage through extended striking sequences.
💥Outcome Distribution - Myktybek Orolbai
Counter lanes in scrambles and transitions.
Fence control windows and top pressure on cards.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid lean to Hermansson by decision, but Orolbai's grappling volatility remains live.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 3.5" reach edge and superior range tools
- • Higher SLpM with better strike defense
- • 81% first-layer takedown defense and proven resets
- • 30ft cage favors movement and space for resets
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Orolbai chain-wrestling and mat returns at the fence
- • Submission threat in scrambles and transitions
- • Early entries before Hermansson's reads settle
- • Welterweight volatility and recent KO history
🏁Executive Summary
Hermansson owns the minute-winning profile at range with strong first-layer takedown defense and a reach-driven jab–kick game that scales well in a 30ft cage. Orolbai's win paths center on chaining entries into rides and threatening submissions whenever he can pin Hermansson to the fence or secure top position.
Prediction: Hermansson by Decision most likely, with Orolbai's live hedge path coming via submission if his chain wrestling can turn resets into extended control sequences.