Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker • Saturday, November 22, 2025
Click each fighter's name or profile image to open their full analytics profile with UFC striking, grappling, and round-by-round history.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights – Alex Perez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Tatsuro Taira | L | TKO - Leg Injury (R2, 2:59) |
| 2024-04-27 | Matheus Nicolau | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R2, 2:16) |
| 2024-03-02 | Muhammad Mokaev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Submission - Neck Crank (Standing Back Control) (R1, 1:31) |
| 2020-11-21 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (Bottom Guard) (R1, 1:57) |
Last 5 Fights – Asu Almabayev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Jose Ochoa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-01 | Manel Kape | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 2:16) |
| 2024-10-19 | Matheus Nicolau | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Jose Johnson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | CJ Vergara | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite (57.1 vs 47.3) and Grappling Composite (50.5 vs 61.6). Blends offense and defense across both phases.
💪Cardio Score
Built from average fight duration, striking pace, takedown frequency and finish rate to approximate who maintains their A-game deeper into Round 3 at flyweight tempo.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple mean of Technical and Cardio scores. A compact view of technical depth plus conditioning, without overweighting a single outlier stat.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted blend of SLpM, accuracy, defense and the inverse of damage absorbed. Rewards efficient volume strikers who create offense without giving up too many clean looks.
🤼Grappling Composite
Built from TDs per 15, TD accuracy, TD defense and submissions per 15. Perez scores via opportunistic guillotines and robust TDD; Almabayev via relentless shots, rides and neck attacks.
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction balancing Perez's KO moments against Almabayev's control-heavy minutes.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Distance Dynamics
The 30-foot cage provides Perez with meaningful tools to manage space: more lateral room to frame-out of shots, angle off the fence and reset to center where his boxing combinations and leg kicks are maximized. However, Almabayev's pressure style and 4.63 TD/15 volume are specifically designed to compress this space—walking opponents down to the fence, chaining singles and doubles, and stacking mat returns. Over 100 simulations, the cage size helps Perez survive more sequences but does not erase the positional risk presented once Almabayev gets both hands on his hips against the fence.
🎯Technical Contrast
Perez carries the superior stand-up toolkit: higher output, sharper counters and genuine knockout power, particularly against level changes. Almabayev's striking is functional but largely in service of his wrestling. On the mat the roles flip: Almabayev's riding pressure, mat returns and 1.16 Sub/15 give him the more systematic offensive grappling profile, while Perez's submission threat is opportunistic and most dangerous when opponents shoot poorly into his guillotine. The model sees Perez winning when he keeps exchanges in open space and converts defensive sprawls into counters; Almabayev wins when he turns rounds into long, layered grappling sequences.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The critical phases are early shot selection, fence exchanges and third-round cardio. Early, Perez must punish entries with jabs, calf kicks and counters to discourage level changes and force Almabayev to think twice before shooting. Along the fence, underhook battles and head position will decide whether Almabayev stacks control time or gets forced to reset. In Round 3, Almabayev's better cardio and wrestling engine become a major scoring lever; if he can sustain shots and rides, he can flip a close fight. Perez, by contrast, needs to cash in on his early KO equity or at least do enough visible damage to offset later control minutes.
🏁Final Prediction
The model leans toward Almabayev on balance: his wrestling volume, ride time and cardio create more consistent paths to bank rounds, especially if he avoids extended striking at range. Perez remains live as a high-impact outlier through knees, uppercuts and guillotines on entries, but those moments occur in a narrower slice of simulations. Overall, minutes favor Almabayev's methodical control; moments favor Perez's early counter windows.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market moneylines and totals vs our model probabilities for flyweight volatility.
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
Market Totals Snapshot
🤖Analytical Model (Moneyline Fair Lines)
💎Value Opportunities (Directional)
Model: ~26% KO equity driven by counters on shots and knees up the middle.
Primary route (~41%) via control-heavy minutes and ride time.
Durable profiles and decision-leaning routes on both sides point toward a high distance rate.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alex Perez
Occasional guillotine/snatch when opponents shoot poorly.
Minute-winning if shots are denied consistently.
Primary path via pocket counters, knees and intercepts on level changes.
💥Outcome Distribution - Asu Almabayev
Less frequent route via attritional GNP.
Primary route via control-heavy, ride-time scoring minutes.
Opportunistic neck attacks and transitions off extended wrestling exchanges.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alex Perez
- • First 7–8 minutes: Highest KO equity before wrestling pace accumulates.
- • Intercepts: Counter level changes with knees and uppercuts.
- • Reset center: Frame-outs after sprawls to keep fight at range.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Asu Almabayev
- • Minute winning: Singles/doubles to cage, mat returns and ride time.
- • Safe top pressure: Prioritize control; submissions when risk is low.
- • Cardio edge: Late-round control tilts close scorecards.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Solid lean toward Almabayev via control minutes; KO volatility from Perez.
Supporting Factors
- • Higher TD volume and ride time for Almabayev.
- • Cardio advantage in rounds 2–3 for the grappler.
- • Control-heavy scoring profile favors his style.
- • Perez TDD mitigates but doesn't erase top control risk.
Risk Factors
- • Perez KO threat early, especially on entries.
- • Large cage aids defensive footwork and resets.
- • Scramble-heavy sequences can invert control optics.
- • Flyweight volatility and momentum swings.
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup pits Perez's sharper striking output and proven KO threat against Almabayev's persistent wrestling and superior cardio. Over three rounds in a large cage, our model leans 61–39 toward Almabayev on cumulative control and pace, but keeps Perez's early KO and guillotine equity fully live.
Prediction: Almabayev by Decision or Submission most often, with Perez KO/TKO in R1–R2 as the primary hedge path in simulations where Almabayev's entries become predictable or his defense lapses under intercept counters.