Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
Saturday, November 22, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Belal Muhammad
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ian Machado Garry
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Belal Muhammad
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Jack Della Maddalena | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Leon Edwards | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-06 | Gilbert Burns | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | Sean Brady | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:47) |
| 2022-04-16 | Vicente Luque | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ian Machado Garry
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Carlos Prates | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Michael Page | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Geoff Neal | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Neil Magny | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 74) and Grappling Composite (81 vs 53). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🎯Stylistic Matchup Analysis
This welterweight clash represents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic, but with nuanced layers that favor the pressure fighter. Belal Muhammad's wrestling-heavy approach faces Ian Garry's technical kickboxing in a 30-foot cage that provides space for both fighters' strengths.
At Distance
Garry's 4" height and 2" reach edges enable clean counter-striking and teep kicks to maintain center control.
In Clinch
Belal's chain wrestling and fence control neutralize Garry's length advantages through inside trips and mat returns.
Late Rounds
Muhammad's cardio edge and minute-winning approach project control time accumulation as Garry's movement degrades.
🧩 Belal Muhammad Key Advantages
2.24 takedowns per 15 vs 1.02; wins the clinch and fence battles to bank minutes in a large cage.
Tactical Edge: Muhammad's ability to chain single-leg attempts into high-crotch finishes and mat returns creates sustained control sequences that judges favor. His 38% takedown accuracy, while modest, becomes dangerous when combined with his 90% defense rate, allowing him to press forward without fear of counters.
Scramble-safe profile lets him press forward with low risk, turning defense into control.
Strategic Impact: This elite defense rate means Muhammad can commit to takedown attempts without worrying about Garry's counter-wrestling. Even if Garry sprawls effectively, Muhammad's ability to maintain position and recycle attempts creates a pressure cooker environment that favors the wrestler's cardio and control time.
Three-round pace favors his attritional style; late-round minute winning historically consistent.
Endurance Advantage: Muhammad's 15:23 average fight time demonstrates his ability to maintain output deep into fights. His low 8.3% finish rate means he's built for decision wars, while Garry's 27.3% finish rate suggests he may fade if forced into extended grappling exchanges. This cardio differential amplifies in the third round.
Tested against championship-level opponents provides tactical depth and adaptability.
Ring IQ: Muhammad's experience against fighters like Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, and Vicente Luque has refined his ability to adjust mid-fight. His recent title fight experience against Edwards shows he can execute game plans under championship pressure, while Garry's limited exposure to elite grapplers creates potential tactical gaps.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Garry's 54% accuracy and 2" reach can punish failed entries in the 30ft cage.
Risk Factor: If Muhammad fails to close distance effectively, Garry's clean counter-striking and teep kicks can rack up significant damage. The large cage provides escape routes that could neutralize Muhammad's pressure game.
Mistimed level changes meet knees/uppercuts; must exit exchanges responsibly.
Technical Risk: Garry's timing on counter-strikes, particularly his uppercuts and knees, could catch Muhammad during takedown attempts. Muhammad's 43% striking accuracy means he absorbs more shots than he lands, creating dangerous counter opportunities.
Garry's fresh movement and explosive bursts could overwhelm Muhammad's methodical approach.
Timing Risk: If Garry establishes early rhythm and prevents Muhammad from finding his pressure game, the fight could slip away before Muhammad's cardio advantage manifests in later rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint to level changes, ride returns against fence, prioritize top time over damage.
Execution: Muhammad will use feints and level changes to force Garry toward the fence, then chain takedown attempts with inside trips and mat returns. His goal is to accumulate control time rather than seeking finishes.
Target body to sap movement, keep a responsible guard on exits, recycle to clinch.
Strategy: Muhammad will focus on body shots to slow Garry's movement and force him to fight at a pace that favors the wrestler. Responsible exits after combinations prevent counter-strikes while maintaining pressure.
Increase pace and pressure in rounds 2-3 to exploit cardio differential.
Timing: Muhammad will gradually increase his output and pressure as the fight progresses, knowing his cardio advantage becomes more pronounced. This late-fight surge often decides close rounds.
🚀 Ian Machado Garry Key Advantages
4" height and 2" reach edges plus crisp accuracy enable center-line control at range.
Technical Edge: Garry's 54% striking accuracy significantly outpaces Muhammad's 43%, creating clean scoring opportunities. His 4" height advantage and 2" reach edge allow him to land jabs and crosses while staying outside Muhammad's effective range, forcing the wrestler to commit to entries.
Low damage absorbed while scoring points supports decision-heavy win paths.
Defensive Efficiency: Garry's 2.77 strikes absorbed per minute is significantly lower than Muhammad's 3.78, indicating superior defensive awareness and distance management. This clean defensive profile supports his decision-heavy win path while minimizing damage accumulation.
Space to reset angles and deny prolonged clinch sequences if the first layer holds.
Spatial Advantage: The 30-foot cage provides Garry with escape routes and reset opportunities that smaller cages don't offer. His lateral movement and angle changes can neutralize Muhammad's pressure game if he maintains distance control and prevents fence pins.
Fresh athleticism and explosive bursts provide early-round advantages.
Age Factor: At 27, Garry's explosive bursts and recovery ability outpace Muhammad's 36-year-old frame. His youth provides faster reaction times and better recovery between rounds, crucial for maintaining distance and counter-striking effectiveness.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fence pins and mat returns erode output; limited submission threat prevents easy get-ups.
Grappling Vulnerability: Garry's 73% takedown defense, while solid, crumbles against Muhammad's chain wrestling. Once taken down, his limited submission threat (0% finish rate) means he can't threaten Muhammad from bottom position, allowing sustained control time.
Repeated returns tax cardio and stall distance striking rhythms.
Cardio Drain: Muhammad's ability to repeatedly take Garry down and return him to the mat creates a cardio-taxing cycle. Each return forces Garry to expend energy getting up while Muhammad conserves energy through control, amplifying the cardio differential.
Muhammad's relentless pace could overwhelm Garry's counter-striking rhythm.
Pace Mismatch: If Muhammad successfully establishes his pressure game, Garry's counter-striking becomes less effective. The wrestler's 4.46 strikes per minute output could force Garry into a reactive mode, neutralizing his accuracy advantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab/teep to reset and punish level changes; avoid over-committing combinations.
Execution: Garry will use his jab and teep kicks to maintain distance and reset angles. When Muhammad commits to takedown attempts, Garry will counter with uppercuts and knees, then immediately circle away to prevent follow-up attempts.
Frame, underhook, turn-off immediately; deny prolonged fence time at all costs.
Defensive Strategy: Garry must prevent Muhammad from establishing prolonged control. His 73% takedown defense needs to be supplemented with immediate turn-offs and whizzer attempts to prevent Muhammad from chaining takedown attempts.
Establish rhythm and scoring early to build lead before cardio becomes factor.
Timing Strategy: Garry needs to establish his striking rhythm early and build a lead before Muhammad's cardio advantage manifests. His youth and explosiveness are most effective in the first two rounds when both fighters are fresh.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large 30ft cage gives Garry lateral exits, but Belal's cage craft and mat-returns shrink space over time.
Strategic Implications: The 30-foot cage initially favors Garry's distance striking, providing escape routes and reset opportunities. However, Muhammad's cage-cutting ability and mat-return proficiency gradually neutralize this advantage. As the fight progresses, Muhammad's pressure game shrinks the effective fighting space, forcing Garry into increasingly confined exchanges where his reach advantage diminishes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Wrestling composite gap (81 vs 53) and TD15 edge project control minutes; Garry's 54% accuracy keeps rounds competitive at distance.
Statistical Analysis: Muhammad's 8.1 grappling composite score significantly outpaces Garry's 5.3, driven primarily by his 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Garry's 1.02. This volume differential translates to sustained control time that judges favor. However, Garry's 54% striking accuracy (versus Muhammad's 43%) creates competitive moments at distance, making rounds closer than the grappling gap suggests.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First-layer TDD at the fence, counter timing on entries, and mid-fight pace management decide close rounds.
Critical Moments: The fight hinges on three key areas: (1) Garry's first-layer takedown defense at the fence - if he can prevent Muhammad from establishing prolonged control, he maintains his striking advantage; (2) Counter-striking timing when Muhammad commits to entries - Garry's uppercuts and knees could be fight-changing if timed correctly; (3) Pace management in rounds 2-3 - Muhammad's cardio advantage becomes pronounced as Garry's movement degrades, creating the window for sustained pressure.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Belal; moments favor Garry. Projection: Belal edges a decision more often with sustained control and cardio.
Comprehensive Assessment: Muhammad's grappling composite edge (8.1 vs 5.3) and cardio profile (15:23 average fight time) project sustained control minutes that tilt close rounds in his favor. While Garry's accuracy and length create competitive moments at distance, Muhammad's ability to bank control time through takedowns and mat returns provides the consistent scoring that judges reward. The 64% projection reflects Muhammad's multiple paths to victory (decision, occasional KO/TKO, submission threat) versus Garry's primarily decision-based win path.
⚖️Risk Assessment & Variables
Key variables that could swing the fight outcome and confidence levels.
High-Impact Variables: (1) Garry's early-round striking rhythm - if he establishes clean distance control and builds a lead, Muhammad's late-round advantages become less relevant; (2) Muhammad's takedown accuracy - his 38% rate means failed attempts create counter-striking opportunities for Garry; (3) Judge preferences - some judges favor control time while others prioritize clean striking, creating scoring variability; (4) Cage positioning - Muhammad's ability to cut off Garry's escape routes determines whether the fight stays at distance or becomes a grappling contest.
🎲Upset Scenarios
Potential paths for Garry to overcome the statistical disadvantages.
Garry's Upset Path: (1) Early knockdown via counter-striking - if Garry catches Muhammad during a takedown attempt with a clean uppercut or knee, it could change the entire dynamic; (2) Perfect distance control - maintaining center control and preventing fence pins for all three rounds would neutralize Muhammad's grappling; (3) Cardio surprise - if Garry's conditioning proves superior to expectations, he could maintain his striking rhythm deep into the fight; (4) Judge bias toward clean striking - some scoring panels favor visible damage over control time, potentially favoring Garry's cleaner optics.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 51.2% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~84% | Market: varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 36.0% | Market: varies
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Control minutes undervalued – Wrestling pace often mispriced in large cages.
- • Distance optics overweighted – Garry's clean optics can sway markets in close rounds.
- • Low finish expectation – Decision-heavy profiles increase derivative edges on overs.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Belal Muhammad
Primary route via control and cardio
Occasional attritional finish
Threat via rides and back-takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Ian Machado Garry
Clean optics at range when uncontested
Dataset projects decision-heavy wins
Low historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ian Machado Garry
- • First 5 minutes: Best chance to punish entries and keep center.
- • Distance control: Jab/teeps to reset; do not accept fence.
- • Counter timing: Uppercuts/knees on level changes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Belal Muhammad
- • Minute winning: Fence pins, rides, and mat returns bank time.
- • Defense first: Responsible exits after combos to avoid counters.
- • Body work: Tax movement to blunt resets in the big cage.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Wrestling control and cardio advantages carry decision equity
✅Supporting Factors
- • TD volume edge and fence control
- • Elite TD defense insurance
- • Proven minute winning in late rounds
- • Decision-heavy profiles for both fighters
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Garry's accuracy at range in a 30ft cage
- • Counter windows on level changes
- • Judges' optics for clean strikes
🏁Executive Summary
Belal's grappling composite edge and cardio profile project control minutes that tilt close rounds, while Garry's accuracy sustains competitive moments at range.
Prediction: Muhammad by Decision most often; Garry's best path is a clean distance game with sharp counter reads.