Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Qatar
Saturday, November 22, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Arman Tsarukyan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Dan Hooker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Arman Tsarukyan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Charles Oliveira | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Beneil Dariush | W | KO/TKO - Knee and Punches (R1, 1:04) |
| 2023-06-17 | Joaquim Silva | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 3:25) |
| 2022-12-17 | Damir Ismagulov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-25 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Dan Hooker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-18 | Mateusz Gamrot | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Jalin Turner | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Claudio Puelles | W | TKO - Front Kick to the Body (R2, 4:06) |
| 2022-03-19 | Arnold Allen | L | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R1, 2:33) |
| 2021-10-30 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission - Kimura (R1, 2:25) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Arman Tsarukyan Key Advantages
3.25 takedowns per 15min vs 0.73 represents a 4.4x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. Tsarukyan's chain-wrestling sequences—knee-tap entries into outside singles, mat returns, and half-guard rides—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 37% takedown accuracy against Hooker's 78% defense suggests first-layer resistance, but Tsarukyan's re-shot ability and fence pressure typically break through. The Georgian's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Hooker defends creates fatigue differentials that compound over five rounds.
The 2.88 strikes absorbed per minute differential (1.84 vs 4.72) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Tsarukyan in scoring optics. While Hooker's 5.03 SLpM output can rack volume, Tsarukyan's 53% striking defense and low absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over five rounds—Tsarukyan maintains his pace without accumulating damage, while Hooker's high-volume approach leaves him vulnerable to counters and takedowns. The Georgian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in championship rounds where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Tsarukyan's 12:36 average fight duration with 70% of wins occurring in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning and strategic pacing. His wrestling-heavy approach creates sustainable pressure that escalates rather than diminishes as fights progress. The Georgian's ability to maintain 3.79 SLpM while executing takedown chains shows efficient energy management—he doesn't gas from striking exchanges because he controls the pace through grappling. This cardio advantage becomes decisive in championship rounds where Hooker's high-volume striking (5.03 SLpM) becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hooker's teeps and step-in knees represent his most dangerous weapons against Tsarukyan's level changes. The Kiwi's 75-inch reach allows him to maintain distance while threatening intercept strikes as Tsarukyan commits to shots. Historical data shows Hooker's success against shorter pressure fighters when he can time these intercepts—his front kicks to the body (as seen vs Puelles) and knee strikes create fight-ending opportunities. Tsarukyan's predictable entry patterns could be exploited if Hooker maintains composure and doesn't panic under pressure.
If Tsarukyan fails to establish consistent pressure and the fight remains at extended range, Hooker's 5.03 SLpM volume advantage becomes significant. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Hooker to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 49% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Tsarukyan's defensive shell, especially if the Georgian becomes hesitant to shoot after early intercept attempts. Hooker's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where he maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Tsarukyan's pressure begins to take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Tsarukyan should utilize jab feints and low kicks to force Hooker into a high guard, creating openings for level changes. His 48% striking accuracy suggests he can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The Georgian's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Hooker guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Tsarukyan can exploit Hooker's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries and subsequent control sequences.
Once Tsarukyan secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and short hammerfists rather than submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Tsarukyan can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to submission attempts or sweeps. The Georgian's 75% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over five rounds.
🚀 Dan Hooker Key Advantages
Hooker's 75-inch reach advantage (vs Tsarukyan's 72") combined with his 6'0" height creates significant striking opportunities at range. His arsenal includes long teeps, calf kicks, and intercept knees that can deter takedown attempts while scoring points. The Kiwi's ability to switch stances and vary his attack angles makes him difficult to read, while his 49% striking accuracy ensures these long weapons land with consistency. In the 30-foot cage, Hooker can maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Tsarukyan to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters.
Hooker's 5.03 SLpM output represents one of the highest striking rates in the lightweight division, creating significant volume advantages when fights remain upright. His ability to maintain this pace while switching stances and varying attack angles makes him difficult to counter effectively. The Kiwi's volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. His 49% accuracy means he's landing clean shots consistently, and his ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace or establish their own rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tsarukyan's chain-wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Hooker—once the Georgian secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Hooker from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. The Kiwi's 78% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Tsarukyan's re-shot ability and persistence typically break through. Once on the ground, Hooker's striking output drops to near zero while Tsarukyan accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Hooker's cardio begins to fade.
Hooker's 10:13 average fight duration suggests he struggles to maintain his high-volume striking approach over extended periods. His 5.03 SLpM output becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as fights progress, especially when combined with takedown defense and grappling exchanges. The Kiwi's cardio limitations become particularly apparent in championship rounds where Tsarukyan's wrestling pressure escalates. Hooker's tendency to fade in later rounds, combined with his high absorption rate (4.72 SApM), creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to both striking counters and takedowns as his energy reserves deplete.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hooker's optimal strategy involves maintaining perimeter control while threatening intercept strikes. His calf kicks and teeps should target Tsarukyan's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult. The Kiwi's ability to switch stances allows him to vary his attack angles and keep Tsarukyan guessing. When Tsarukyan does commit to shots, Hooker should threaten knees and uppercuts to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Tsarukyan from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure.
Hooker's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first two rounds when he's fresh and Tsarukyan hasn't yet established his wrestling rhythm. The Kiwi should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean shots before Tsarukyan's pressure begins to take effect. His 5.03 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when he can sustain it without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining his energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Hooker can force Tsarukyan to fight from behind and potentially alter the Georgian's gameplan.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Hooker's range weapons and movement, but gradually shifting toward Tsarukyan's pressure as the fight progresses. Hooker's 75-inch reach and 6'0" height give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his teeps, calf kicks, and intercept knees effectively. However, Tsarukyan's relentless pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Hooker into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The Georgian's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Hooker's ally into Tsarukyan's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over five rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling activity and damage economy. Tsarukyan's 3.25 TD15 vs Hooker's 0.73 represents a 4.4x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Hooker's striking moments (5.03 SLpM, 49% accuracy) create impressive volume, Tsarukyan's damage economy (1.84 SApM vs 4.72) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The Georgian's 53% striking defense combined with his wrestling threat forces Hooker into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Tsarukyan's control time and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Hooker's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling at the fence, intercept knees vs level changes, and late-round pace durability. Hooker's 78% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Tsarukyan's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over time. The Kiwi's intercept weapons (teeps, knees, uppercuts) represent his most dangerous tools against Tsarukyan's entries, but the Georgian's ability to vary his approach and mix striking with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Tsarukyan's superior cardio (12:36 avg duration vs 10:13) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his wrestling pressure that forces Hooker to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Arman Tsarukyan by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior damage economy over five rounds. Tsarukyan's KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and mat returns, particularly in later rounds when Hooker's cardio begins to fade. Hooker's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (18%) via intercept knees or uppercuts as Tsarukyan commits to takedown attempts. The Kiwi's decision path (7%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout five rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Tsarukyan's pressure escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Fair: -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Arman Tsarukyan
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Dan Hooker
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Dan Hooker
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Arman Tsarukyan
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (3.25 vs 0.73 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Ride control creates safe scoring minutes
- • Proven cardio over three rounds; scalable to five
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Intercept knees/uppercuts vs level changes
- • Big cage extends early range time
- • Hooker's high-volume surges in pockets
🏁Executive Summary
Arman Tsarukyan's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through chain-wrestling sequences, while Dan Hooker's best equity centers on early intercept strikes and range weapons before the Georgian's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Tsarukyan: his 3.25 TD15 vs Hooker's 0.73 creates a 4.4x takedown volume advantage, while his 1.84 SApM vs Hooker's 4.72 represents superior damage economy that compounds over five rounds. Tsarukyan's 12:36 average fight duration with 70% of wins in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardio management, while Hooker's 10:13 duration suggests struggles maintaining his high-volume approach over extended periods. The Georgian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in championship rounds where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Tsarukyan by Decision most likely (40% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Hooker's upset lane is early KO/TKO (18%) via intercept knees or uppercuts as Tsarukyan commits to shots. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Hooker can capitalize on his early range advantages before Tsarukyan's wrestling pressure and superior cardio become decisive factors.