Luana SantosvsMelissa Croden
UFC Apex • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • Small Cage (25 ft)
Rising Contender
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Volume Boxer
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luana Santos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Tainara Lisboa | W | Submission - Keylock (R2, 4:59) |
| 2024-08-17 | Casey O'Neill | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Mariya Agapova | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:27) |
| 2023-12-09 | Stephanie Egger | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-12 | Juliana Miller | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:41) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Melissa Croden
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Tainara Lisboa | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 4:32) |
| 2024-10-25 | Ashley Deen | W | KO/TKO - Knees and Elbows (R2, 0:22) |
| 2023-10-06 | Katharina Lehner | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 3:20) |
| 2023-04-21 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-27 | Cornelia Holm | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 3:22) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78) and Grappling Composite (86) for Santos, and respective composites for Croden. Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling control.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects endurance and ability to maintain pace through three rounds.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of each fighter combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Luana Santos Key Advantages
Efficient takedown-to-submission sequences with 83% TD defense allow her to dictate where the fight happens. Santos' judo background enables seamless transitions from clinch work to ground control, where she can isolate limbs for rear-naked chokes or arm triangles. Her 50% takedown accuracy combined with elite defensive wrestling creates a systematic approach that wears down opponents through position accumulation and submission threats. The Brazilian's ability to chain wrestle from failed shots to successful entries demonstrates high-level grappling IQ.
Strong defensive striking metrics minimize risks while closing distance in the small cage. Santos absorbs just 3.4 significant strikes per minute while maintaining 52% strike accuracy, allowing her to pressure forward without fear of counterpunches. Her defensive awareness prevents Croden from establishing rhythm, forcing the striker to fight in uncomfortable ranges where Santos can shoot for takedowns. This defensive foundation enables her to control the pace and location of exchanges.
The UFC Apex environment compresses space, favoring clinch entries and top control. The intimate 25-foot cage eliminates Croden's reach advantage and creates constant wall proximity, where Santos can use cage positioning to set up throws and prevent Croden from circling effectively. This neutralizes the Canadian striker's spacing game while amplifying Santos' ability to force close-range exchanges. The reduced movement area makes it significantly harder for Croden to maintain her preferred kickboxing range.
With five UFC appearances and a 4-1 record, Santos has proven she can adapt to different opponent styles and fight environments. Her experience includes wins over quality opponents like Tainara Lisboa and Mariya Agapova, demonstrating she can execute game plans under pressure. This UFC-tested profile contrasts sharply with Croden's single UFC appearance, giving Santos a significant edge in understanding how to navigate three-round fights and make in-fight adjustments.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Staying at range risks being out-volumed by Croden's 6.81 SLpM. Santos' 3.69 strikes per minute is well below average for bantamweight, and while her accuracy is solid, prolonged kickboxing exchanges play directly into Croden's wheelhouse where she can accumulate significant strikes and control the pace. If Santos cannot close distance effectively, she'll find herself losing rounds on volume alone.
If shots are telegraphed, she can get stuck and lose minutes along the fence. Santos needs to be precise with her level changes and timing, as failed takedown attempts can lead to sprawl-and-brawl scenarios where Croden can punish with elbows and knees from the top position, negating Santos' ground game entirely. Repeated failed entries drain energy and give Croden confidence.
If Santos cannot secure early finishes or dominant positions, her cardio could become a factor in Round 3. While her average fight duration suggests good conditioning, Croden's volume pace could force Santos into a higher work rate than she's accustomed to, potentially compromising her takedown accuracy and submission attempts in the championship round.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Level change off feints, ride positions, isolate arms for submissions. Santos should use her judo grips to secure underhooks in the clinch, then immediately transition to single or double-leg takedowns. Once on top, she needs to maintain heavy pressure, prevent stand-ups, and systematically work for submission finishes rather than settling for control time. The key is constant forward pressure to eliminate Croden's movement options.
Counter over-commits with straight rights, then re-enter to clinch. Santos should time her entries when Croden loads up on power shots, using the counter right hand to disrupt rhythm and immediately close the distance. This creates openings for level changes while keeping Croden from establishing her preferred striking pace in the center of the cage. Mixing in feints and level changes will keep Croden guessing.
Look for quick submission attempts in Round 1 to establish dominance and potentially secure an early finish. Santos' 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes indicates she's always hunting for finishes, not just control. Back takes and arm triangles are her specialties, and she should prioritize these high-percentage positions over maintaining top control without advancing. Early finishes also prevent Croden from finding her rhythm.
🚀 Melissa Croden Key Advantages
Volume and accuracy with low absorption (2.89 SApM) sustain late power. Croden's 6.81 strikes per minute with 56% accuracy creates a relentless pace that can overwhelm opponents, especially in open space where she can use her height and reach to control distance. Her low strike absorption rate indicates she can maintain this output without taking significant damage in return, making her a dangerous opponent in extended striking exchanges.
Controls distance well; 68.5" reach aids jab-first approach. Croden's 3-inch height advantage and superior reach allow her to dictate the terms of engagement, using her jab to maintain distance and set up combinations. In larger UFC cages, this becomes even more pronounced as she can circle and pick her shots without being forced into close quarters. Her frame creates natural defensive barriers that make it difficult for shorter opponents to close distance.
Mixes opportunistic takedowns to vary looks and score optics. Croden's 66% takedown accuracy with 2.06 attempts per 15 minutes provides defensive versatility, allowing her to shoot when opponents overcommit and create separation. While not a dominant grappler, her wrestling IQ helps her avoid being taken down while occasionally securing top position for ground-and-pound. This unpredictability keeps opponents honest and prevents them from focusing solely on striking.
Croden's perfect finish rate in her UFC career demonstrates her ability to capitalize on opportunities and finish fights decisively. Her six KO/TKO victories show she carries legitimate power into the later rounds, making her dangerous even when behind on scorecards. This finishing ability forces opponents to respect her power throughout the fight, creating openings for her volume striking game and preventing them from taking unnecessary risks.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Submission awareness is limited (0.0 Sub/15); scrambles can be punished. Croden has no recorded submission attempts in her career, making her vulnerable to reversals and sweeps when opponents work from guard. Santos' judo expertise could exploit this weakness if Croden ends up in top position, as she lacks the submission threat to keep Santos honest on the ground.
If forced to grapple early, striking volume may not materialize. Croden's game plan relies heavily on establishing her striking rhythm, but if Santos forces clinch work immediately, it disrupts the Canadian's ability to build combinations and could lead to a grinding wrestling match where Santos excels. Without space to operate, Croden's volume advantage disappears.
With only one UFC fight, Croden's statistics may be inflated by regional competition. Her impressive finish rate and striking metrics haven't been tested against the consistent level of competition Santos has faced. This creates uncertainty about how she'll perform under UFC pressure and against elite-level grappling, making it difficult to project her true ceiling.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep back off fence, escalate volume late to force damage optics. Croden should use her reach to maintain center cage positioning, circling to avoid the fence where Santos can pin her. Build combinations gradually, wearing down Santos with volume in the championship rounds when cardio becomes a factor. The key is maintaining distance and preventing Santos from establishing clinch control.
Use 75% TD defense to stuff entries and counter with knees and punches. When Santos shoots, sprawl immediately and frame with the forearms, then counter with downward elbows or punches while Santos is recovering. This creates a deterrent effect and maintains striking dominance throughout the bout. Making Santos pay for failed takedowns will reduce her willingness to shoot repeatedly.
Increase volume and power in Rounds 2-3 when Santos may be fatigued from grappling attempts. Croden's cardio advantage could become apparent later in the fight, allowing her to push a higher pace when Santos is conserving energy. Late-round finishes are a hallmark of her career, and she should look to capitalize on any signs of fatigue from Santos' grappling-heavy approach.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Physical Dynamics
The small 25-foot Octagon at UFC Apex favors clinch entries and control. Santos' compact frame and grappling acumen benefit more in tight spaces than Croden's longer-range striking toolkit. The intimate cage dimensions compress available movement, making it harder for Croden to utilize her 3-inch height and 1.5-inch reach advantages effectively. Santos can use cage positioning to force close-range grappling exchanges, where her judo expertise and 83% takedown defense create favorable scenarios.
Strategic Implications: The compressed space eliminates Croden's primary advantage (distance control) while amplifying Santos' strength (close-range grappling). This venue factor significantly tilts the matchup in Santos' favor, as she can force the fight into her preferred range more easily than in a standard 30-foot cage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Clear striker vs grappler dynamics. Croden leads volume and accuracy on the feet (6.81 SLpM at 56%), while Santos' takedown and submission profiles (1.91 TD/15, 1.3 Sub/15) present real finishing leverage once grounded. The statistical contrast is stark: Santos' defensive striking (62% vs 54%) and grappling composite (86 vs 72) give her clear edges in mixed martial arts fundamentals. However, Croden's offensive output and low strike absorption (2.89 SApM) suggest she can control the tempo if she maintains distance and avoids clinch work.
Key Metric: Santos' 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes ranks among the highest in the division, demonstrating her ability to finish fights rather than just control them. This finishing threat forces opponents to be cautious in grappling exchanges, creating openings for her takedown game.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Round 1 fence dynamics and first takedown defense layers are pivotal. If Santos secures top positions, attritional control and submissions follow. If Croden maintains center and pace, late damage optics swing rounds. The early minutes will determine the fight's trajectory: Santos needs immediate clinch pressure to force unfavorable positions for Croden, while Croden must establish her jab and movement to prevent Santos from dictating the terms of engagement and building positional momentum.
Critical Factor: The first successful takedown could set the tone for the entire fight. If Santos establishes top control early, it validates her game plan and forces Croden to fight from behind. Conversely, if Croden stuffs early attempts and builds striking volume, Santos may become hesitant to shoot, playing into Croden's hands.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Santos' path: pressure to fence, chain wrestle to top, isolate arms and back-takes for submissions. Croden's path: keep center, stuff entries, escalate volume in Rounds 2-3 for late TKO/decision optics. For Santos to win, she must translate her grappling advantages into finished fights rather than just control, using her submission threats to create urgency and prevent Croden from riding out rounds. Croden's victory requires perfect defensive wrestling while building a cumulative striking advantage that judges can't ignore, despite Santos' positional dominance.
Most Likely Outcome: Santos by Submission (Rounds 2-3) represents the highest probability finish, as her grappling superiority combined with the small cage creates multiple opportunities for fight-ending sequences. However, if Croden can survive early grappling exchanges and establish her striking rhythm, a competitive decision becomes possible, though still favoring Santos due to control time advantages.
📈Statistical Edge Analysis
The data strongly favors Santos across multiple key metrics. Her 83% takedown defense ranks among the elite in the division, while her 62% striking defense provides a solid foundation for closing distance. Croden's 75% takedown defense is respectable but hasn't been tested against elite-level grapplers like Santos. The Brazilian's composite grappling score of 86 significantly outpaces Croden's 72, indicating a substantial skill gap in ground exchanges that could prove decisive.
X-Factor: Croden's perfect finish rate (100%) and six KO/TKO victories show she carries fight-ending power, but this has primarily come against regional competition. Her ability to replicate this finishing ability against UFC-level grappling remains unproven, creating uncertainty in her path to victory.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 26% | Market: look for ≥ +300
GOOD VALUE
Fair: -150 | Value if ≤ -135
SLIGHT VALUE
Fair: -150 • Look for plus money
⚠️Key Market Notes
- • Moneyline elasticity - Expect moves as limits rise; target best price.
- • Submission props - Santos sub props can steam; act early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Luana Santos
💥Outcome Distribution - Melissa Croden
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid confidence given style dynamics; some variance via Croden pace.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 1.91 TD/15 with 50% accuracy and 1.3 Sub/15
- • 83% TDD and strong control retention in small cage
- • Defensive striking edge (62% vs 54%) reduces entry risk
- • UFC-tested profile with multiple submission wins
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Croden’s volume pace and size at range
- • Limited UFC sample for Croden (stat inflation risk)
- • Round optics if control lacks damage
🏁Executive Summary
A striker vs grappler matchup where the small-cage geometry elevates Santos' positional control and submission threat. Croden's pace and frame remain live at range, but defensive metrics and UFC experience tilt outcomes toward the grappler. This fight exemplifies the classic dilemma between volume striking and positional dominance. Santos represents the complete mixed martial artist with elite grappling, solid striking defense, and submission finishing ability, while Croden offers one-dimensional power that could create explosive moments if she establishes her range game.
The small 25-foot Apex cage plays a crucial role by compressing space and favoring Santos' ability to force close-range exchanges. Her judo background and 83% takedown defense create a systematic approach to controlling the fight's direction, while Croden's height and reach advantages become less pronounced in the intimate environment. The key will be Santos' ability to translate her grappling superiority into finished fights rather than just control, as Croden's volume striking could sway judges if the fight remains competitive on the feet.
Croden's path to victory requires near-perfect execution: she must stuff takedowns consistently, maintain center cage positioning, and build cumulative striking advantages that judges cannot ignore. Her 6.81 strikes per minute provides the volume necessary to win rounds, but only if she can prevent Santos from establishing top control. The Canadian's perfect finish rate suggests she carries fight-ending power, but this has primarily come against regional competition, creating uncertainty about her ability to finish elite-level grapplers.
Prediction: Luana Santos by Submission (Round 2-3) or Decision. Monitor submission props early; consider live angles if Croden's volume fades under clinch pressure. This represents a style clash where comprehensive MMA skills should prevail over one-dimensional power, though Croden's explosive potential keeps the outcome from being a foregone conclusion. The model's 60-40 split reflects Santos' clear advantages while acknowledging Croden's finishing ability and volume striking as legitimate paths to victory.