Marco Tulio vs Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Apex • UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025 • Small Cage (25 ft)
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Explosive Finisher
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Evolving Finisher
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Marco Tulio
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Tresean Gore | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R2, 3:16) |
| 2025-01-11 | Ihor Potieria | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head On Ground (R1, 3:04) |
| 2024-08-27 | Matthieu Duclos | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:38) |
| 2023-08-29 | Yousri Belgaroui | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-28 | Well Oliveira | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:10) |
Last 5 Fights - Christian Leroy Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Eryk Anders | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:53) |
| 2025-03-22 | Andrey Pulyaev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Claudio Ribeiro | W | TKO - Punches to Head From Back Control (R2, 1:57) |
| 2023-11-18 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | TKO - Punches to Head In Clinch (R2, 4:24) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 77) and Grappling Composite (55 vs 40). Quantifies striking efficiency and grappling layers to represent core technical skill.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish tempo. Measures endurance and ability to sustain pace in a small (25 ft) Octagon.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score to provide a holistic, easy-to-compare view across fighters.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Marco Tulio Key Advantages
7.54 vs 4.83 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy and 61% defense; 2.53 SApM keeps damage low. Tulio's high-volume pressure creates overwhelming per-minute efficiency, forcing Duncan into defensive mode early where his 51% strike defense and 2.94 SApM are exploitable weaknesses.
Back-to-back UFC KOs (Potieria R1, Gore R2) and historical DWCS body-kick TKO demonstrate consistent power. In the small cage, Tulio's compact frame and explosive combinations can end fights before Duncan finds his rhythm with range weapons.
Short average fight duration (5.67 min UFC) and 100% finish rate suggest Tulio can maintain pace through all three rounds. His low SApM (2.53) indicates he absorbs minimal damage, preserving energy for late-round surges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Aggressive crowding into elbows/knees on clinch breaks if over-chasing. Duncan's recent creativity with spin elbows (as seen vs Anders) could catch Tulio if he gets too aggressive in the pocket without proper head positioning.
Defensive wrestling sample is small (0% TDDef in stats); untested in long mat sequences at UFC level. If Duncan secures top control and works ground-and-pound, Tulio's limited grappling defense could be exposed in a potential decision scenario.
If Tulio fails to finish early, his cardio advantage diminishes. Duncan could potentially outlast the early storm and use his experience to win rounds with cleaner striking in the championship rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab/right-hand behind body teeps and round kicks, fence cycles, punish exits with the rear hand. Tulio will look to establish his range first, then progressively increase volume while targeting the body to slow Duncan's lateral movement and counter rhythm.
Occasional takedown looks to keep rotational attacks honest; do not over-invest. Use the threat of takedowns to close distance and prevent Duncan from settling into his jab-heavy rhythm, forcing him to respect Tulio's grappling threat.
Capitalize on small cage to prevent resets, mixing head and body shots to create openings. Tulio's gameplan centers on ending the fight before Duncan can implement his counter-striking strategy effectively.
🚀 Christian Leroy Duncan Key Advantages
Long jabs, spin/step-through elbows, intercept knees; recent R1 KO vs Eryk Anders confirms first-strike danger. Duncan's reach advantage and creative arsenal allow him to dictate terms from outside, using his 79" reach to land at will while keeping Tulio at distance.
Strong takedown defense enables resets; offensive TD volume and accuracy remain low (0.22/15 at 11%). Duncan can sprawl effectively and return to striking, neutralizing Tulio's limited grappling threat and maintaining stand-up control.
7 UFC fights with multiple finishes show Duncan can end fights when opportunities present. His recent KO of a durable opponent like Anders demonstrates he can capitalize on mistakes and finish when in position.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Output and defense (4.83 SLpM; 51% StrDef; 2.94 SApM) can lag under structured pressure and body targeting. If Tulio establishes his pace early, Duncan may struggle to match volume and could be overwhelmed by cleaner, harder shots.
Right-hand counters over inside low-kicks; body work saps bounce in small cage. Duncan's footwork can become predictable when backing up, and Tulio's body attack could limit his ability to maintain optimal spacing and rhythm.
If fight goes to decision, judges may reward Duncan's cleaner technique, but Tulio's volume and pressure could be scored higher. Duncan's previous decision losses show judges can be fickle with volume vs technique.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Long jabs, calf kicks, intercept knees; call for clinch-break elbows when Tulio squares in pressure. Duncan will prioritize establishing his jab early and using his reach to land first, setting up more dangerous shots.
Use frames and footwork to re-center; avoid over-investing in wrestling—reset and strike. Duncan must prevent Tulio from trapping him on the fence and maintain striking distance throughout.
Weather the early storm, use wrestling defense to create openings, capitalize on Tulio's mistakes. Duncan needs to survive the first round and let his experience and technique take over.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Physical Dynamics
The small 25-foot Octagon at UFC Apex significantly compresses space and favors high-pressure fighters who can close distance quickly. Tulio's compact frame and explosive pace directly benefit from reduced reset lanes, making it harder for Duncan to create optimal spacing. While Duncan's 79" reach remains dangerous if he maintains first-strike rhythm, the cage constraints limit his ability to fully utilize his length advantage compared to larger venues.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Tulio owns decisive volume and defensive edges on the feet with his elite 7.54 SLpM output, 61% strike defense, and remarkably low 2.53 SApM that shows he absorbs minimal damage. Duncan's updated profile shows improving output (4.83 SLpM post-Anders win) and elite takedown defense (71%), but his offensive grappling remains limited with just 0.22 TD/15 at 11% accuracy. This striking-focused matchup favors Tulio's pressure style, though Duncan's wrestling defense gives him a path to survival and counter opportunities.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The early minutes will be critical, testing range control and first-strike equity in the compressed space. If Tulio successfully corrals Duncan to the fence and establishes his body work rhythm, the momentum can snowball dramatically due to Duncan's difficulty maintaining optimal spacing. However, if Duncan keeps the center of the Octagon and lands his intercept shots (elbows, knees), his creative arsenal and better cardio could help him turn rounds and make Tulio pay for over-committing to pressure.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Tulio's path to victory involves relentless pressure with body work and right-hand counters, aiming to either force a stoppage through accumulated damage or bank enough clean rounds to win a decision. Duncan's path requires managing distance effectively, landing intercept elbows and knees on Tulio's entries, and leveraging his length and cardio for sustained striking success that could lead to either a clean stoppage or enough round dominance to sway judges despite Tulio's volume.
🏁Final Prediction
The analytical model leans to Tulio (62-38) primarily due to his decisive volume and defensive edges that should translate well in the compressed space of the UFC Apex cage. While Duncan's length and creativity remain potent threats that could swing momentum, especially in the early rounds, Tulio's pressure style and finishing ability give him the statistical edge. Prediction: Marco Tulio by KO/TKO (Rounds 1-2) or competitive Decision, with the early finish being the most likely outcome given both fighters' recent performances.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds (BetOnline)
Market Props (reference)
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: seek any plus money
GOOD VALUE
Price watch: value if ≤ -150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model favors inside-the-distance 76%
⚠️Key Market Notes
- • Moneyline elasticity - Expect movement; target best price pre-fight.
- • KO props - Tulio KO can steam; consider early entries.
- • Live spots - If Duncan establishes range early, reassess totals.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marco Tulio
Pressure and body work create finishing windows
Banks minutes through sustained pace
Rare counter-submission scenarios
💥Outcome Distribution - Christian Leroy Duncan
Low offensive grappling volume
Range management and first strikes bank rounds
Creative shots and intercepts create sudden finishes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Tulio volume edge; Duncan reads entries (25% finish window combined)
- • 5-10 minutes: Fence cycles and body work accumulate (25%)
- • 10-15 minutes: Duncan’s intercepts live; late momentum hinge (26%)
- • 15-25 minutes: Not applicable (3-round fight); projections flatten (24%)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid confidence given volume/defense edges; Duncan’s length and creativity keep variance live
✅Supporting Factors
- • 7.54 SLpM with 60% accuracy; 61% StrDef and 2.53 SApM
- • 71% career KO/TKO rate with two UFC finishes
- • Small cage favors pressure and body targeting
- • Duncan’s low offensive wrestling volume
- • Improved durability metrics relative to opponent
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Duncan’s 4.5" reach and intercept weapons
- • Spin elbows/knees on clinch breaks
- • Limited data on Tulio’s defensive wrestling at UFC level
- • Judges may reward clean long-range work if pace slows
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash pits Tulio's explosive pressure style against Duncan's rangy, creative counter-striking approach in the challenging small-cage environment of UFC Apex. The numbers strongly favor Tulio's per-minute efficiency (7.54 SLpM vs 4.83), superior striking defense (61% vs 51%), and finishing form, with his back-to-back UFC KOs representing a clear momentum advantage. While Duncan's 4.5-inch reach advantage and recent creative finishes (including the Anders KO) remain live threats, especially in the early rounds, the compressed 25-foot Octagon significantly reduces his reset lanes and plays to Tulio's ability to close distance and apply constant pressure.
Prediction: Marco Tulio by KO/TKO (Round 1-2) or Decision. The model projects 62% win probability for Tulio, with his volume and accuracy likely overwhelming Duncan's defense early. Monitor under 2.5 rounds if Tulio's pressure materializes quickly; live reassess if Duncan controls the center and lands his intercept weapons effectively.