Austin Bashi vs Jamall Emmers
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Apex: Bonfim vs Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Austin Bashi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | John Yannis | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:39) |
| 2025-01-11 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Dorian Ramos | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:15) |
| 2024-06-01 | Zac Riley | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:48) |
| 2023-09-30 | Askar Askar | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 1:48) |
Last 5 Fights - Jamall Emmers
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Gabriel Miranda | W | KO - Punch (R1, 4:06) |
| 2024-03-30 | Nate Landwehr | L | KO - Punch (R1, 4:43) |
| 2023-11-11 | Dennis Buzukja | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 0:49) |
| 2023-06-24 | Jack Jenkins | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-18 | Khusein Askhabov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Austin Bashi Key Advantages
Chain attempts and mat returns overwhelm pace; creates back-take and RNC lanes in the small Apex cage.
High submission rate and ride time threaten late-round momentum swings.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Emmers' 5.45 SLpM and 56% StrDef win optics when takedown entries stall.
Clean counters on failed level changes; early damage flips round narratives.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Head-outside singles into doubles and trips; prioritize control, back exposure, and sub threats.
🚀 Jamall Emmers Key Advantages
56% strike defense and rangy footwork blunt entries; volume pads optics.
80% TDD forces extended stand-up where output and range take over.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged control yields back-takes and late-round sub threats against the cage.
Stuck on the fence invites level changes and ride time losses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab, calf kicks, and straight counters on entries; circle off and deny prolonged clinches.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range vs Control Dynamics
In the 25‑ft Apex, entries come quicker, but judges still reward clean optics when control time isn’t sustained. Emmers’ height/reach and steady output bank minutes at range; Bashi must compress space, convert fence cycles to top control, and avoid prolonged mid‑range.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Emmers owns decisive standing edges: SLpM 5.45 vs 1.75, StrDef 56% vs 48%, and elite TDD 80% against Bashi’s high‑volume TD15 7.81. Bashi’s sub activity (1.70/15) demands ride time; without it, striking minutes drift Emmers.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early: entry timing vs straight counters and calf kicks. Middle: fence clinch where mat returns and rides decide optics. Late: cardio and scramble resistance — Bashi’s back‑take threat vs Emmers’ denial footwork and reset.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Emmers; control favors Bashi. With 62–38 overall lean, the model expects Emmers to out‑land and defend enough shots to bank rounds, while Bashi’s clearest path is stacking ride time into late submission looks. Apex narrows the gap but doesn’t flip the base case.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 33% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 51% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume optics vs control time – Stand-up minutes likely scored for Emmers.
- • TDD firewall – 80% TDD not fully priced against high TD volume.
- • Small cage variance – Apex aids entries but requires sustained control to flip optics.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Jamall Emmers
Minute-winning profile with range and volume
Clean counters on entries create KO lanes
Low but non-zero submission outcomes
🏆Outcome Distribution - Austin Bashi
Control time and mat returns bank minutes
Pace-induced attrition can force stoppages
Back-takes and RNC threat late
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 7.5/10 – Emmers minute-winning vs Bashi control-time threat
Confidence Level
Emmers edges optics and output; small cage keeps Bashi live
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM (5.45) with similar accuracy
- • Strong TDD (80%) blunts chain attempts
- • Reach and height advantages at range
- • Apex favors fence cycles but optics still favor volume
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early TD conversions can flip rounds
- • Bashi submission threat on prolonged rides
- • Apex cage raises scramble variance
- • Judges valuing control over volume