Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 8, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ricky Simon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Cameron Smotherman | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Javid Basharat | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R1, 3:58) |
| 2024-06-29 | Vinicius Oliveira | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Mario Bautista | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Song Yadong | L | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R5, 1:10) |
Last 5 Fights - Raoni Barcelos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Cody Garbrandt | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Payton Talbott | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Cristian Quiñonez | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 2:04) |
| 2023-08-05 | Kyler Phillips | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R1, 4:40) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (78 vs 58). Measures full toolkit and balance across phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, output sustainability, takedown attempt volume, and finish avoidance. Both trend strong at 82/100.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores. Small-cage geometry slightly favors Simon's chain wrestling edge.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Accuracy, Defense, and Absorbed per Minute. Barcelos leads on volume and precision.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TDs per 15min, TD Accuracy, TD Defense, and Sub Attempts per 15min. Simon leads via elite attempt volume and efficiency.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Ricky Simon Key Advantages
Elite takedown pace with strong accuracy (43%) to dictate fight geography in the 25ft cage. Simon's wrestling chains are seamless, transitioning from clinch entries to double-legs to mat returns without losing position. His ability to grind out control minutes against the fence creates cumulative scoring opportunities that can overwhelm even elite strikers. The systematic approach allows him to dictate where fights occur, neutralizing opponent advantages through superior grappling pressure and sustained control time. His cardio enables him to maintain this pace throughout all three rounds, wearing down opponents both physically and mentally as they struggle to escape his mounting control.
Better defensive reads and a 2" reach advantage help close distance without eating clean counters. Simon's head movement and distance management frustrates power punchers like Barcelos, who relies on clean shots to generate offense. The reach advantage allows Simon to initiate exchanges on his terms while maintaining defensive positioning. His ability to slip punches and maintain forward pressure creates opportunities for takedown entries without absorbing significant damage in the transition. This defensive awareness is crucial in avoiding the knockout power that Barcelos possesses, allowing Simon to implement his game plan safely.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If stuck at range early, lower output (2.93 SLpM) and 44% accuracy get exposed against Barcelos' clean counters. Simon's pacing-oriented striking style means he accumulates volume over time rather than competing in explosive exchanges. Against Barcelos' snappy timing and power, early exchanges that don't lead to takedowns could leave him trailing on the scorecards. His methodical approach requires time to establish rhythm, but Barcelos' quick-fire combinations can disrupt this timing before Simon can find his takedown entries. This becomes especially problematic in the first round when both fighters are fresh and striking exchanges are most explosive.
Barcelos carries live power on sprawls and entries; a clean right or uppercut can flip momentum fast. His ability to generate knockout power from defensive positions means every takedown attempt carries risk. Simon must exercise caution when initiating wrestling sequences, as Barcelos' counters can end fights suddenly. The Brazilian's experience allows him to time his shots perfectly during scrambles, often catching wrestlers off-balance when they're committed to takedown attempts. This counter-punching threat forces Simon to be particularly careful with his entries, potentially slowing his wrestling attack.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint to level-change, ride legs off mat returns, accumulate fence control and top time. Simon should work through his wrestling chains systematically - clinch entries to set up takedowns, consistent pressure on the mat to prevent escapes, and cage positioning to limit Barcelos' movement. The key is maintaining constant forward pressure while avoiding dangerous exchanges. He must establish the wrestling threat early to force Barcelos into defensive mode, then capitalize on mistakes when the Brazilian overextends on strikes or loses position during scrambles. Patience is crucial; forcing takedowns against Barcelos' elite defense could lead to dangerous counters.
🚀 Raoni Barcelos Key Advantages
Clean hands with crisp counters and consistent output; lands cleaner in extended striking phases. Barcelos' precision striking style means every shot carries significant impact potential. His ability to maintain volume while landing clean shots creates scoring opportunities that judges favor over volume without accuracy. The Brazilian's experience shows in his timing and punch selection, knowing exactly when to throw combinations and when to stay patient. His counter-punching ability forces opponents to think twice before committing to attacks, creating openings when they hesitate or overreach. This striking superiority becomes even more dangerous in the smaller cage where escape routes are limited.
First-layer defense is elite; forces wrestlers to chain and burn clock against the fence. Barcelos' defensive instincts allow him to react quickly to takedown attempts, forcing opponents to work harder for each successful attempt. This superior initial defense can frustrate wrestlers and force them into less favorable positions. His sprawl and underhook defense make it extremely difficult for opponents to complete single-leg attempts on the first try. When wrestlers are forced to chain multiple attempts together, they expend significant energy and leave themselves open to counter opportunities. Against Simon's high takedown pace, this defensive capability will be tested repeatedly throughout the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Small-cage cycles favor Simon's rides and mat returns; control minutes can outscore clean shots. In the 25ft cage, Barcelos has less space to scramble and escape. Simon's ability to chain wrestling sequences means Barcelos could spend extended periods on the defensive, negating his striking advantages. When wrestlers establish top position in a smaller cage, there are fewer avenues for escape, allowing holding periods to be longer and more damaging to the scorecard. This magnifies the importance of initial scrambles - if Barcelos cannot quickly return to his feet, he risks losing entire rounds through positional control.
At 38, extended grappling exchanges can inflate absorbed strikes and cede rounds late. Age-related decline in cardio becomes apparent in championship rounds, especially against younger wrestlers who can maintain pace. Barcelos must conserve energy early and look for quick finishes rather than extended battles. His defensive reflexes may start to slow in the later rounds, making him more susceptible to Simon's takedown chains and ground control. The demands of wrestling exchanges become increasingly difficult for older fighters, particularly at bantamweight where pace is always high.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab and low-kick rhythm to punish level changes; force resets and keep the fight mid-cage. Barcelos should focus on maintaining distance with sharp jabs while targeting Simon's lead leg to compromise his takedown entries. The goal is forcing Simon to reset after failed attempts while accumulating scoring shots. He must stay patient and not rush his combinations, keeping his hands high when Simon initiates wrestling sequences. The leg kicks serve dual purpose - scoring points while compromising Simon's base for takedown attempts. Staying mobile and circling off the cage will be crucial to avoid getting pinned against the fence where Simon's wrestling becomes most effective.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small-Cage Dynamics
In the 25ft Apex, clinch entries and rides come earlier than in larger venues. Simon's takedown pace scales exceptionally well in this environment, where opponents have fewer escape routes and transitions happen faster. The smaller cage eliminates the lateral movement that strikers typically rely on to avoid wrestling exchanges. Barcelos' first-layer TDD remains elite, but the compressed space forces him to fight Simon's chains more frequently. Even when he successfully defends the initial takedown attempt, Simon's ability to immediately chain to second and third attempts becomes more dangerous. The cage walls serve as additional leverage points for Simon's wrestling techniques, making resistance more energy-intensive for Barcelos.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Barcelos possesses superior striking technique with cleaner connections, higher output, and significantly better accuracy that creates devastating combinations. However, Simon's wrestling control and ride positions provide a dependable minute-winning mechanism against even elite takedown defense. While Barcelos' striking metrics are outstanding across the board, UFC's scoring criteria heavily favor control time and dominant positions. Simon's ability to dictate where fights occur neutralizes Barcelos' striking advantages by limiting his opportunities to establish rhythm. Wrestling control translates directly to judges' scorecards, often outweighing striking superiority in close rounds where cumulative control time determines winners.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The critical moments occur during initial sprawls, mat returns, and fence cycles where fight momentum shifts rapidly. Barcelos' counters carry legitimate knockout threat during scrambles, particularly when Simon's takedown attempts leave him vulnerable to uppercuts and hooks. However, Simon's advanced ride positions and control time accumulation become increasingly effective as the fight progresses. His ability to chain wrestling sequences means each successful takedown creates opportunities for additional control time. Late in rounds, fatigue amplifies Simon's advantages as Barcelos must work harder to escape positions and defend against continued wrestling pressure. The fight's outcome depends heavily on Simon's ability to maintain his wrestling pace while avoiding Barcelos' dangerous counters during transitions.
🏁Final Prediction
Strategic control favors Simon through accumulated minutes and positional dominance, while individual explosive moments favor Barcelos through knockout power and striking superiority. Our projection sees Simon winning close scorecards through wrestling pressure, fence control, and sustained top time that accumulates across rounds. However, Barcelos remains live for fight-ending counters throughout all exchanges, particularly when Simon commits to takedown attempts during scrambles. The fight's outcome depends on Simon's ability to maintain his wrestling game plan while avoiding Barcelos' dangerous counter-striking opportunities. Close rounds will likely go to Simon due to control time advantage, but one clean shot from Barcelos at any moment could dramatically shift the fight's narrative.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (fair)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61% | Fair: -156
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Control minutes undervalued – Books may underweight ride time vs. clean strikes.
- • KO volatility priced high – Barcelos power respected; decision skew on Simon can be mispriced.
- • Small-cage impact – Geometry edge to the wrestler not fully accounted.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ricky Simon
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP late if rides accumulate
Occasional choke off scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Raoni Barcelos
Counter lanes off stuffed entries
Minute-winning at range when stuffing chains
Opportunistic guillotines/back-takes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Barcelos
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest KO equity on counters before chains build.
- • Low-kick disruption: Deny entries and force resets mid-cage.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Simon
- • Round 3: Ride time and mat returns tip close rounds.
- • Fence cycles: Bank control minutes with safe exits.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Small-cage geometry + takedown volume vs. aging opponent
✅Supporting Factors
- • High takedown pace and rides
- • Reach and defense advantages
- • Minute-winning geometry in 25ft cage
- • Barcelos' age curve at bantamweight
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Elite first-layer TDD (86%)
- • Counter KO lanes off entries
- • Higher striking volume and accuracy from Barcelos
- • Three-round variance
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight matchup pits Simon's chain wrestling and control against Barcelos' volume striking and elite first-layer TDD. In the smaller cage, clinch cycles arrive early, favoring control minutes. Barcelos remains dangerous with counters and volume.
Prediction: Simon by Decision, with Barcelos' KO threat live in early scrambles.