Tecia Pennington vs Denise Gomes
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Apex Bonfim vs Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tecia Pennington
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Luana Pinheiro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Carla Esparza | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Tabatha Ricci | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-09 | Mackenzie Dern | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:41) |
| 2021-08-07 | Angela Hill | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Denise Gomes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Elise Reed | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head in Clinch (R2, 2:30) |
| 2024-11-09 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Eduarda Moura | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Angela Hill | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Yazmin Jauregui | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head On Ground (R1, 0:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (28.8 vs 26.9) and Grappling Composite (18.9 vs 26.3).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking pace, takedown activity, and finishing tendency.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot cage compresses space, favoring pressure entries, clinch cycles, and takedown attempts. That tilt marginally benefits Gomes’s multi-path approach while narrowing Pennington’s lateral escape margin.
🎯Technical Contrast
Pennington’s 62% striking defense and 4.78 SLpM enable steady minute-winning in space. Gomes brings greater finishing threat with 37% TDAcc and a live KD profile. Control plus moments vs. defense and pace.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Cage real estate, early power moments, and mat transitions. If Gomes turns walls into offense and finds top, rounds swing quickly. If Pennington keeps it clean and lateral, decisions trend her way.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Pennington; moments and control favor Gomes. In a 3-round fight at the Apex, the model leans 56–44 toward Gomes on the strength of power entries, takedown conversion, and finishing layers.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Denise Gomes
Primary finishing lane via power and pressure
Back-take and choke sequences off control
Damage moments plus top control bank rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Tecia Pennington
Minute-winning profile in clean space
Attritional counters if over-pursued
Low historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Denise
- • First 7–8 minutes: Highest KO/control equity before resets stick
- • Fence pins: Turn walls into offense with body lock and knees
- • Mix levels: Feints high, change levels under counters
🎯Progressive Dominance - Tecia
- • Minute winning: Jab, kicks, counters in space
- • Reset cycles: Sprawl-and-go to center repeatedly
- • Risk control: Avoid extended clinch at fence
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple converging edges for Gomes vs. strong defensive minute-winning from Pennington
✅Supporting Factors
- • Gomes: KO threat + TD conversion + Sub layers
- • Small cage enhances pressure/clinch offense
- • Pennington: elite StrDef and cardio enable decision path
⚠️Risk Factors
- • If Gomes cannot secure pins, decision math leans Pennington
- • Early damage optics can sway close rounds
- • 3-round variance higher for close styles
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup geometry favors Gomes’s ability to create decisive moments and control in a small cage, while Pennington’s defensive minute-winning remains a live path. The model edges Gomes 56–44 with KO and decision as primary routes.
Prediction: Gomes by KO/TKO or Decision. Live hedge: Pennington Decision.