Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Apex Bonfim vs Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Mayra Bueno Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Macy Chiasson | L | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R2, 1:58) |
| 2024-01-20 | Raquel Pennington | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Holly Holm | NC | Submission - Guillotine Choke (Overturned) (R2, 0:38) |
| 2023-02-18 | Lina Lansberg | W | Submission - Kneebar (R2, 4:45) |
Last 5 Fights - Jacqueline Cavalcanti
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Julia Avila | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Nora Cornolle | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Josiane Nunes | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Zarah Fairn | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧠 Mayra Bueno Silva Key Advantages
Elite submission threat with 1.5 attempts per 15 minutes and 71% of wins via tap. Proven front-headlock sequences, armbar transitions from bottom, and kneebar finishes. One successful scramble or clinch entry can completely shift momentum and end the fight instantly.
The 25 ft Apex cage significantly reduces escape routes and forces closer exchanges. Bueno Silva excels at converting clinch entries into takedown attempts, guard pulls, and submission setups. Her 28% clinch striking accuracy combined with knee strikes and snap-downs creates immediate submission opportunities when opponents can't create space.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Significant physical disadvantages: 4" shorter reach (66" vs 70") and vulnerable striking defense (51% StrDef vs 70%). Against Cavalcanti's high-volume striking (5.73 SLpM), these gaps compound over time. Recent losses show 134+ strikes absorbed in decisions, indicating cardio and defensive limitations under pressure.
Cardiovascular limitations become evident in extended fights. Recent skid shows declining performance post-R2, with absorption rates increasing to 60-70% in later rounds. Failed takedown attempts (29% accuracy) leave her exposed to counter-strikes and volume accumulation, particularly problematic against Cavalcanti's consistent pace and defensive responsibility.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Strategic pressure with body shots and feints to close distance, forcing Cavalcanti into defensive reactions. Chain wrestling: trips, single-legs, or guard pulls leading to front-headlock positions. From there, execute proven guillotine, armbar, or kneebar sequences. Target early rounds (42% of wins in R1) when cardio is fresh and opponents are most susceptible to submission attempts.
🚀 Jacqueline Cavalcanti Key Advantages
Elite defensive fundamentals with 70% striking defense and 84% takedown defense. Superior reach (70") and footwork create optimal striking distance while denying clinch entries. Proven ability to counter-strike off failed takedown attempts and maintain clean optics for judges. Only 3.32 strikes absorbed per minute shows exceptional defensive responsibility and range control.
Exceptional cardiovascular conditioning with 5.73 strikes per minute sustained across full 15-minute fights. Perfect 4-0 UFC record shows consistent minute-winning performance. Cardio advantage compounds each round as opponents fade, allowing increased output and cleaner decision optics. 100% of UFC wins via decision demonstrates ability to maintain pace and volume throughout entire fights.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Zero grappling offense (0% takedown accuracy, 0 submission attempts) creates vulnerability when forced into ground exchanges. Guard pulls and prolonged clinch positions expose her to Bueno Silva's elite submission arsenal. Limited ground experience means defensive grappling gaps could be exploited if unable to maintain distance and sprawl effectively against takedown attempts.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain optimal striking distance using 70" reach advantage. Establish jab rhythm and straight rights to control pace and prevent clinch entries. Implement sprawl-and-brawl tactics against takedown attempts, immediately returning to feet if taken down. Focus on volume accumulation (5.73 SLpM) and clean striking optics to win rounds decisively. Counter-strike off failed takedown attempts to maximize damage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Range Dynamics
The 25 ft Apex cage creates a unique environment that theoretically favors clinch specialists, but Cavalcanti's elite defensive metrics (70% strike defense, 84% takedown defense) neutralize this advantage. Her superior reach (70" vs 66") and footwork allow her to maintain optimal striking distance while denying clinch entries. Bueno Silva's path to victory requires forcing extended ties and creating scrambles where her submission arsenal becomes a factor. The smaller cage compresses escape routes, but Cavalcanti's defensive responsibility and counter-striking ability turn failed takedown attempts into scoring opportunities.
🎯Technical Contrast
This matchup represents a classic "minutes vs. moments" dynamic. Cavalcanti's striking supremacy (5.73 SLpM, 70% StrDef, 84% TDDef) creates consistent minute-winning pressure that accumulates over 15 rounds. Her defensive fundamentals and cardio allow sustained output without defensive lapses. Conversely, Bueno Silva's elite submission arsenal (1.5 subs/15, 71% of wins via tap) represents instant fight-ending potential through proven front-headlock chains, armbar transitions, and kneebar finishes. The contrast highlights Cavalcanti's systematic approach versus Bueno Silva's opportunistic finishing ability, where one successful scramble can negate 14 minutes of dominance.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on three critical battle areas: range control, clinch entry denial, and cardiovascular sustainability. Early range control favors Cavalcanti's 70" reach and defensive fundamentals, but Bueno Silva's pressure and feinting can force defensive reactions. Clinch entry denial becomes paramount for Cavalcanti - her 84% takedown defense must hold against Bueno Silva's 29% accuracy and chain wrestling attempts. Cardio sustainability over 15 minutes represents the deciding factor: Cavalcanti's proven 5.73 SLpM pace and clean optics versus Bueno Silva's tendency to fade post-R2 with increased absorption rates. Bueno Silva must create front-headlock and trip sequences early when cardio is fresh, while Cavalcanti must maintain clean exchanges layered behind the jab and prevent extended ground time.
🏁Final Prediction
Statistical analysis and stylistic matchup favor Cavalcanti's minute-winning approach, but Bueno Silva's submission threat creates significant upset potential. The projection leans Jacqueline Cavalcanti via decision (46% probability) through sustained volume (5.73 SLpM) and superior defensive metrics (70% StrDef, 84% TDDef). However, Mayra Bueno Silva's elite submission arsenal (22% submission probability) remains the primary path to victory, requiring early clinch control and front-headlock sequences before cardio limitations emerge. The 64/36 split reflects Cavalcanti's broader advantages while acknowledging Bueno Silva's fight-ending potential through proven submission chains and opportunistic grappling exchanges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 46% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mayra Bueno Silva
Primary weapon via front-headlocks/armbars
Wins minutes when clinch control sticks
Less common path
💥Outcome Distribution - Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Minute-winning volume, clean optics
Accumulation or counter windows
Uncommon path historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mayra Bueno Silva
- • Early clinch entries off body work
- • Force scrambles to threaten front-headlocks
- • Reduce clean striking exchanges at distance
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- • Minute-winning with jab, straights, and footwork
- • Sprawl-and-brawl insurance against clinch pressure
- • Maintain defensive responsibility exiting exchanges
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Striking volume/defense edge balanced by live submission risk
✅Supporting Factors
- • Cavalcanti: +1.9 SLpM, 70% StrDef
- • 4" reach advantage and strong TDD (84%)
- • Better 3-round cardio profile
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Bueno Silva’s 1.5 subs/15 and clinch conversion
- • Small cage increases tie-ups
- • Striking accuracy swings on optics
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup is a classic minutes vs. moments dynamic. Cavalcanti’s defensive fundamentals and steady pace are built for 15-minute control, while Bueno Silva’s submission craft remains a constant equalizer whenever the fight compresses.
Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision. Live hedge: Mayra Bueno Silva by Submission.