Mike Davis vs Mitch Ramirez
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
UFC Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Mike Davis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | Fares Ziam | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Chris Gutierrez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:09) |
| 2023-07-15 | Natan Levy | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:47) |
| 2022-12-17 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Submission (R1, 2:34) |
| 2022-04-23 | Mason Jones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mitch Ramirez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Thiago Moises | L | Leg Kicks (R3, 0:15) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score Methodology
Davis: 67.5/100 | Ramirez: 47.5/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 55) and Grappling Composite (70 vs 40). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Davis's superior accuracy (52% vs 42%) and much higher grappling score significantly boost his rating.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Davis: 75/100 | Ramirez: 65/100
Based on average fight duration (Davis: 10:15 vs Ramirez: 8:45), striking rate per minute (4.0 vs 2.37), takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights. Davis's longer fights and higher volume output demonstrate superior conditioning.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
Davis: 71.3/100 | Ramirez: 56.3/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Davis's 15-point advantage reflects his UFC experience, superior grappling, and better conditioning. The gap shows in later rounds where Davis's technical superiority and conditioning advantage become more pronounced.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis: Experience vs Hunger
🥊 Mike Davis Key Advantages
Knows how to handle octagon pressure and championship-level game planning
Strong wrestling base with submission threat - massive grappling advantage
Height and reach advantages with superior striking accuracy
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ramirez's explosive power could catch Davis early before he establishes control
Pure striking battles could favor Ramirez's knockout power over technical precision
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize superior wrestling to control position and limit Ramirez's striking
Use higher output and accuracy to accumulate damage over time
🚀 Mitch Ramirez Key Advantages
Dangerous early finisher with 5 KO/TKO wins pre-UFC
Needs first UFC win - maximum motivation and urgency
Can capitalize on Davis's slow starts with explosive early power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Davis's superior grappling could neutralize striking advantages
Davis's superior cardio could take control in later rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Look for explosive combinations to end the fight early
Press for early finish before Davis can establish control
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Experience vs Hunger Dynamic
This preliminary card matchup represents the classic UFC story: veteran experience versus hungry prospect. Davis brings 6 UFC fights of experience and a strong grappling foundation, while Ramirez brings the desperation of needing his first UFC win. Davis's recent loss to Ziam showed vulnerability, but also his ability to compete with quality opposition at the UFC level.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Davis's advantages in striking accuracy (52% vs 42%) and massive grappling superiority (70 vs 40 composite score). However, Ramirez's knockout power and 62.5% finish rate create a dangerous early threat. Davis's superior technical score (67.5 vs 47.5) reflects his more complete skillset, while Ramirez's power remains his primary equalizer.
⚠️Key Risk Factors
Despite Davis's technical advantages, Ramirez's knockout power and desperation factor cannot be underestimated. Davis's poor striking defense (36%) combined with Ramirez's finishing ability creates upset potential. Both fighters need this win badly, making it a high-stakes battle with potential for explosive action.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22.2% | Market: 14.3%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~11.1%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 64.3% | Market: 60.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Ramirez's knockout power - Market overconfident in Davis dominance
- • Overrates Davis's technical edge - Statistical advantages not as decisive as implied
- • Ignores lightweight volatility - Division known for upset finishes
- • Desperation factor overlooked - Ramirez's career urgency creates dangerous opponent
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Davis
61% of his wins | Superior cardio + grappling control
28% of his wins | Volume accumulation + power
11% of his wins | Grappling superiority
💥Outcome Distribution - Ramirez
81% of his wins | Early explosive power
19% of his wins | Unlikely with cardio deficit
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ramirez
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum knockout danger
- • Early pressure: Must capitalize before Davis adapts
- • Explosive moments: Look for big shots in exchanges
- • Desperation factor: Career urgency creates extra motivation
🎯Progressive Control - Davis
- • Round 2+: Grappling and experience take over
- • Control phases: Wrestling neutralizes power threat
- • Volume accumulation: Higher output wears down Ramirez
- • Late dominance: Superior cardio shows in round 3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on Davis's comprehensive advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear grappling superiority by Davis
- • UFC experience advantage
- • Better technical skills
- • Superior cardio for 3 rounds
- • Physical advantages (reach/height)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ramirez's knockout power
- • Davis's poor striking defense
- • Desperation factor for Ramirez
- • Preliminary card volatility
- • Early finish potential
🏁Executive Summary
This preliminary card matchup presents a classic experience versus hunger dynamic between Davis's UFC veteran status and Ramirez's desperate need for his first organizational win. Statistical data clearly favors Davis with decisive advantages in grappling (75% superiority), striking accuracy (52% vs 42%), and physical attributes (1" height, 1.5" reach). The massive betting line of -900/+600 reflects market confidence in Davis's comprehensive edge.
While Ramirez's knockout power (62.5% finish rate) and three first-round finishes create genuine upset potential, especially against Davis's poor striking defense (36%), our model suggests the market may be slightly overconfident. The -900 odds imply 90% probability, while our analysis indicates 81.8% for Davis. This creates potential value on Ramirez despite his significant disadvantages.
Prediction: Davis's experience, grappling superiority, and technical advantages should prevail decisively, justifying his heavy favorite status. However, Ramirez's power creates a narrow window for upset in early exchanges. If Davis implements his wrestling game effectively, the fight becomes increasingly one-sided as it progresses through the rounds.