Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charrière
UFC Fight Night Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
18-6-0
⭐ Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Morgan Charrière
"The Last Pirate"
20-11-1
🏴☠️ The Last Pirate
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Nate Landwehr
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Dooho Choi | L | KO/TKO - Elbows (R3, 3:21) |
| 2024-03-30 | Jamall Emmers | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:47) |
| 2023-06-10 | Dan Ige | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Austin Lingo | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:11) |
| 2022-08-13 | David Onama | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Morgan Charrière
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Nathaniel Wood | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Gabriel Miranda | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:27) |
| 2024-04-06 | Chepe Mariscal | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Manolo Zecchini | W | KO/TKO - Kick (R1, 3:51) |
| 2023-02-25 | Jake Hadley | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:58) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (48 vs 52). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Landwehr Key Advantages
🥊 Striking Volume
4.67 SLpMHigher output with 4.67 strikes per minute vs Charrière's 3.89. Landwehr's pressure style and aggressive pace could overwhelm the Frenchman in high-volume exchanges.
🎯 Striking Accuracy
51% vs 46%5% better striking accuracy gives Landwehr an edge in landing clean shots. Combined with his volume, this creates a dangerous combination for sustained damage.
📏 Reach Advantage
+1" reach1-inch reach advantage allows Landwehr to maintain distance while landing shots. Can control range and force Charrière to overextend when closing distance.
⏰ Experience Edge
+6 yearsAt 36, Landwehr has crucial experience advantage and veteran savvy. His 9 UFC fights provide deep Octagon knowledge against younger, less experienced opposition.
🏴☠️ Charrière Key Advantages
💪 Youth & Prime
Age 30 - PrimeAt 30, Charrière is in his athletic prime with superior speed and recovery. Six-year age advantage could be decisive in later rounds if fight goes the distance.
🤼 Takedown Game
1.23 vs 0.88 TD/15Higher takedown rate and better grappling composite (52 vs 48). Can mix wrestling with striking to disrupt Landwehr's rhythm and control fight positioning.
🛡️ Defensive Edge
71% TD DefenseSuperior takedown defense (71% vs 68%) helps keep fight standing where his striking power can be most effective. Can sprawl and counter Landwehr's takedown attempts.
💥 Power Potential
KO/TKO RateRecent KO victories show dangerous power. With 9 KO/TKO wins in career, has proven ability to end fights suddenly against durable opponents.
⚠️ Landwehr - Unfavorable Scenarios
📉 Late Round Fade
Age and high-pace style could lead to cardio decline in rounds 2-3. Charrière's youth advantage becomes more pronounced as fight progresses.
💔 Power Shots
Recent KO loss to Choi shows vulnerability to power. Charrière's 9 career KO/TKOs suggest he can capitalize if Landwehr gets sloppy in exchanges.
🤼 Grappling Exchanges
Lower grappling composite could be exploited if Charrière mixes in takedowns effectively. Wrestling exchanges may drain energy and disrupt striking rhythm.
⚠️ Charrière - Unfavorable Scenarios
🌊 Volume Pressure
Landwehr's high output (4.67 SLpM) could overwhelm with constant pressure. Lower striking accuracy (46%) means less efficient countering against volume.
📏 Range Control
Landwehr's reach advantage and higher striking rate could keep Charrière at distance, preventing close-range power shots and limiting takedown entries.
⏰ Decision Warfare
If fight goes to decision, Landwehr's volume and activity could steal rounds. Charrière may need to force action and risk position for power shots.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Landwehr Strategy
"The Train" will look to establish his high-volume pressure early, using his reach advantage to keep Charrière at distance while landing consistent jabs and body shots. He'll mix in takedown threats to keep Charrière guessing and prevent him from settling into a rhythm. Key is maintaining pace for 15 minutes and outworking the younger fighter with veteran savvy.
Charrière Strategy
"The Last Pirate" needs to make this a physical fight, using his youth and athleticism to push a high pace and test Landwehr's cardio. He'll look for power shots in exchanges, mix in takedowns to disrupt rhythm, and try to take over in later rounds as the veteran fades. Key is avoiding getting outworked early while setting up big moments.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Comprehensive statistical analysis and fight simulation
📈Win Probabilities
Nate Landwehr
Morgan Charrière
💰Statistical Betting Model
📊 Model-Based Odds
Moneyline
Method Props
⏱️ Fight Duration Props
Round Totals
Decision Props
📈 Model Notes
Probabilities based on fighter statistics, style matchup analysis, and historical performance data. Landwehr's volume striking and experience create favorable odds for decision victory.
🎲Fight Simulation (1000 Simulated Fights)
🎯 Technical Factors
Landwehr's striking volume (4.67 SLpM) and accuracy (51%) advantage drives the simulation. His ability to outwork opponents over 15 minutes is the primary factor in his 62% win probability.
⚡ Physical Dynamics
Charrière's youth (30 vs 36) and power potential create scenarios where he can take over late or land fight-ending shots. His 38% win rate reflects these explosive possibilities.
🌊 Fight Flow
Most simulations favor a striking battle where Landwehr's volume accumulates points. Charrière wins typically come via power shots or late round surges when Landwehr fades.
📊 Simulation Breakdown
Landwehr wins 620 times: primarily via decision (350) and TKO (220), leveraging his volume striking and veteran experience to control the pace.
Charrière wins 380 times: mostly via KO/TKO (200) or late decision (150), using power and youth to overwhelm or outlast the aging veteran.
🎯Final Prediction & Analysis
✅ Key Prediction Factors
Volume Advantage: Landwehr's 4.67 SLpM vs 3.89 SLpM creates a clear path to victory through activity and output over 15 minutes.
Accuracy Edge: 51% vs 46% striking accuracy means Landwehr lands cleaner shots consistently, building rounds through quality volume.
Veteran Experience: Nine UFC fights and age/experience advantage provide tactical knowledge to manage Charrière's athletic advantages.
⚠️ X-Factors & Wildcards
Age vs Youth Dynamic: Landwehr's experience must overcome Charrière's physical prime. If the pace slows or fight extends into deep rounds, the 30-year-old's athleticism could become decisive.
Power vs Volume: Charrière's 9 career KO/TKOs show finishing ability. One well-timed counter could change the entire fight narrative.
🏁 Prediction
Landwehr by Decision (62% confidence) - "The Train" uses his volume striking, reach advantage, and veteran savvy to outwork Charrière over three rounds. Consistent pressure and higher output accumulate points for a clear decision victory.