Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charrière
Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Nate Landwehr
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Dooho Choi | L | KO/TKO - Elbows (R3, 3:21) |
| 2024-03-30 | Jamall Emmers | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:47) |
| 2023-06-10 | Dan Ige | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Austin Lingo | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:11) |
| 2022-08-13 | David Onama | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Morgan Charrière
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Nathaniel Wood | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Gabriel Miranda | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:27) |
| 2024-04-06 | Chepe Mariscal | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Manolo Zecchini | W | KO/TKO - Kick (R1, 3:51) |
| 2023-02-25 | Jake Hadley | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:58) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (48 vs 52). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Landwehr Key Advantages
🥊 Striking Volume
4.67 SLpMHigher output with 4.67 strikes per minute vs Charrière's 3.89. Landwehr's pressure style and aggressive pace could overwhelm the Frenchman in high-volume exchanges.
🎯 Striking Accuracy
51% vs 46%5% better striking accuracy gives Landwehr an edge in landing clean shots. Combined with his volume, this creates a dangerous combination for sustained damage.
📏 Reach Advantage
+1" reach1-inch reach advantage allows Landwehr to maintain distance while landing shots. Can control range and force Charrière to overextend when closing distance.
⏰ Experience Edge
+6 yearsAt 36, Landwehr has crucial experience advantage and veteran savvy. His 9 UFC fights provide deep Octagon knowledge against younger, less experienced opposition.
🏴☠️ Charrière Key Advantages
💪 Youth & Prime
Age 30 - PrimeAt 30, Charrière is in his athletic prime with superior speed and recovery. Six-year age advantage could be decisive in later rounds if fight goes the distance.
🤼 Takedown Game
1.23 vs 0.88 TD/15Higher takedown rate and better grappling composite (52 vs 48). Can mix wrestling with striking to disrupt Landwehr's rhythm and control fight positioning.
🛡️ Defensive Edge
71% TD DefenseSuperior takedown defense (71% vs 68%) helps keep fight standing where his striking power can be most effective. Can sprawl and counter Landwehr's takedown attempts.
💥 Power Potential
KO/TKO RateRecent KO victories show dangerous power. With 9 KO/TKO wins in career, has proven ability to end fights suddenly against durable opponents.
⚠️ Landwehr - Unfavorable Scenarios
📉 Late Round Fade
Age and high-pace style could lead to cardio decline in rounds 2-3. Charrière's youth advantage becomes more pronounced as fight progresses.
💔 Power Shots
Recent KO loss to Choi shows vulnerability to power. Charrière's 9 career KO/TKOs suggest he can capitalize if Landwehr gets sloppy in exchanges.
🤼 Grappling Exchanges
Lower grappling composite could be exploited if Charrière mixes in takedowns effectively. Wrestling exchanges may drain energy and disrupt striking rhythm.
⚠️ Charrière - Unfavorable Scenarios
🌊 Volume Pressure
Landwehr's high output (4.67 SLpM) could overwhelm with constant pressure. Lower striking accuracy (46%) means less efficient countering against volume.
📏 Range Control
Landwehr's reach advantage and higher striking rate could keep Charrière at distance, preventing close-range power shots and limiting takedown entries.
⏰ Decision Warfare
If fight goes to decision, Landwehr's volume and activity could steal rounds. Charrière may need to force action and risk position for power shots.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Landwehr Strategy
"The Train" will look to establish his high-volume pressure early, using his reach advantage to keep Charrière at distance while landing consistent jabs and body shots. He'll mix in takedown threats to keep Charrière guessing and prevent him from settling into a rhythm. Key is maintaining pace for 15 minutes and outworking the younger fighter with veteran savvy.
Charrière Strategy
"The Last Pirate" needs to make this a physical fight, using his youth and athleticism to push a high pace and test Landwehr's cardio. He'll look for power shots in exchanges, mix in takedowns to disrupt rhythm, and try to take over in later rounds as the veteran fades. Key is avoiding getting outworked early while setting up big moments.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 39.2% | Market: 35.1%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 53.5% | Market: 50.0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 24.5% | Market: ~26.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Charrière's youth advantage - Market heavily weights age difference without considering experience gap
- • Undervalues Landwehr's volume striking - 4.67 vs 3.89 SLpM creates sustainable paths to victory
- • Recency bias toward power - Market overreacts to Charrière's finishing ability vs volume fighters
- • Ignores accuracy differential - Landwehr's 51% vs 46% striking accuracy not properly priced
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🚂Outcome Distribution - Landwehr
61.5% of his wins | Volume striking path
30.8% of his wins | Power accumulation
7.7% of his wins | Rare but possible
🏴☠️Outcome Distribution - Charrière
57.5% of his wins | Primary path to victory
32.8% of his wins | Tactical boxing
9.7% of his wins | Limited grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Charrière
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum power and speed advantage over aging veteran
- • Early exchanges: 35% of his finishes occur in first two rounds
- • Counter striking: Must capitalize on Landwehr's aggressive entries
- • Youth advantage: Utilize athletic prime against 37-year-old opponent
🎯Progressive Control - Landwehr
- • Round 2+: Experience and volume striking begin to tell
- • Accumulation strategy: 4.67 SLpM wears down defensive systems
- • Veteran craft: Ring IQ and tactical adjustments mid-fight
- • Late round control: Superior cardio and output in final 5 minutes
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic analysis
✅Supporting Factors
- • Charrière's youth and power advantage
- • Superior athletic attributes at 30
- • Strong finishing rate (62.5%)
- • Better reach and leg reach
- • Historical power vs volume patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Landwehr's experience advantage
- • Superior volume striking output
- • Better striking accuracy (51% vs 46%)
- • Proven veteran in UFC competition
- • Age could be less factor in 3 rounds
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a classic striker vs striker matchup with distinct generational and stylistic contrasts. Charrière's youth (30 vs 37), power advantages, and superior finishing rate (62.5% vs 64.7%) create multiple paths to victory against an aging veteran. While Landwehr's volume striking (4.67 vs 3.89 SLpM) and accuracy (51% vs 46%) provide tactical advantages, the physical prime difference becomes crucial in a 3-round format.
The betting market appears to have properly assessed this matchup, with Charrière as a -215 favorite reflecting his combination of youth, power, and finishing ability. Our model aligns closely with market expectations, suggesting limited value opportunities but confirming the French striker's advantages are legitimate and properly priced.
Prediction: Charrière by KO/TKO in Round 2 (61% confidence). The Last Pirate utilizes his youth, power, and athletic advantages to overwhelm the veteran early in the fight. While Landwehr's experience keeps him competitive initially, Charrière's superior physical tools and finishing instincts prove decisive. The 3-round format favors the younger, more explosive fighter before experience and volume can accumulate effectively.