Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Junior Tafa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Sean Sharaf | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 2:15) |
| 2024-08-17 | Valter Walker | L | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 4:56) |
| 2024-02-17 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | L | TKO - Kick and Punches (R2, 1:14) |
| 2023-08-26 | Parker Porter | W | KO - Punches (R1, 1:24) |
| 2023-04-22 | Mohammed Usman | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tuco Tokkos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Navajo Stirling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Oumar Sy | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:43) |
| 2023-09-30 | Alonzo Menifield | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Ion Cutelaba | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:22) |
| 2022-11-05 | Ovince Saint Preux | W | KO/TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 2:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.6 vs 40.6) and Grappling Composite (19.5 vs 24.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Tafa Key Advantages
💥 Power Striking
100% Finish RateTrue light heavyweight frame with one-shot KO threat in any exchange. 100% finish rate shows he capitalizes when he hurts opponents.
🎯 Striking Efficiency
+0.85 SLpM EdgeSuperior striking output (3.36 vs 2.51 SLpM) and 10% accuracy advantage creates significant striking differential.
🛡️ Takedown Defense
78% TDD vs 40% ShooterExcellent 78% takedown defense directly counters Tokkos' lone clear path to victory through wrestling.
🔥 Tokkos Key Advantages
🤼 Wrestling Threat
2.65 TD/15minHigher takedown frequency with chain wrestling ability could exploit any defensive lapses from Tafa.
📏 Reach & Height
+1" Reach/HeightSlight 1-inch reach and height advantage can aid level-change entries and distance control.
🎯 Diverse Paths
Multiple Win MethodsMore diverse win conditions with submissions and decisions in regional scene provides multiple paths to victory.
⚠️ Tafa - Unfavorable Scenarios
💨 Cardio Concerns
Tafa struggles if stuck flat-footed on the fence; clinch-wear can sap his burst and explosive power.
🏋️ Weight Management
At 241 lbs, significantly heavier frame could become liability in extended wrestling exchanges.
🎣 No Takedown Offense
Zero takedown attempts limits his ability to create scrambles or change levels when hurt.
⚠️ Tokkos - Unfavorable Scenarios
💥 Power Differential
Dramatic power vs. durability mismatch. Has been hurt standing in both UFC bouts against lighter opponents.
⚖️ Size Deficit
At 206 lbs, 35-pound weight deficit at light heavyweight exacerbates defensive issues against larger opponents.
📊 Poor TD Defense
Defends takedowns at just 33%, creating potential scrambles that may favor the more explosive Tafa.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Tafa Strategy
Press forward with sprawl-and-brawl approach. Use jab-rear-uppercut combinations to punish level changes and look for counter overhand as Tokkos ducks. Maintain distance to avoid clinch wear and preserve explosive power.
Tokkos Strategy
Chain double-legs into trips, force Tafa to post on the mat, hunt top control and short elbows. Avoid mid-range kickboxing entirely and use wrestling to drain Tafa's explosiveness over time.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 66.7% | Market: 60.8%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: ~45.5%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52.4% | Market: 47.6%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Tafa's striking advantage - Market doesn't fully account for light heavyweight power differential
- • Overrates Tokkos' wrestling threat - Tafa's 78% takedown defense significantly limits wrestling paths
- • Size class misconception - Fighting up in weight class while giving up striking metrics creates compound disadvantage
- • Finish rate disparity - Both fighters' 100% finish rates suggest early ending, favoring power striker
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Tafa
75% of his wins | Primary weapon
25% of his wins | If fight goes distance
No historical submission wins
🎯Outcome Distribution - Tokkos
30% of his wins | Power puncher's chance
40% of his wins | Wrestling-heavy grind
30% of his wins | Wrestling background
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
Highest finish probability
Wrestling fatigue sets in
Tokkos desperation
⚡Critical Window - Tafa
- • Early exchanges: Maximum power and explosiveness in first 5 minutes
- • Counter-striking: Punish Tokkos' aggressive takedown entries
- • Distance control: Use light heavyweight reach and power to maintain striking range
- • Takedown defense: 78% TDD to keep fight standing where he has clear advantage
🎯Survival Path - Tokkos
- • Survive early storm: Weather Tafa's most dangerous moments in round 1
- • Wrestling pressure: Chain takedowns and force grappling exchanges
- • Volume accumulation: Use activity to win rounds if striking doesn't work
- • Late desperation: Increasing urgency could create scramble opportunities
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Tafa's striking dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant striking advantages
- • Light heavyweight power differential
- • Strong takedown defense (78%)
- • Tokkos' poor striking defense
- • Size class disadvantage for Tokkos
- • Both fighters favor early finishes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Tokkos' wrestling pressure ability
- • Light heavyweight division volatility
- • Tafa's modest cardio if dragged out
- • Tokkos' desperation factor
- • Wrestling scramble opportunities
- • Submission threat in grappling
🏁Executive Summary
This light heavyweight clash presents a classic striker vs wrestler dynamic with clear advantages favoring the striker. Tafa's significant striking superiority (3.36 vs 2.51 SLpM, 49% vs 39% accuracy) combined with his 78% takedown defense directly counters Tokkos' primary path to victory. The power differential between a true light heavyweight and a welterweight moving up creates a substantial finishing threat that Tokkos has not previously faced in the UFC.
While Tokkos brings wrestling credentials and a willingness to grind, his poor striking defense (48% vs Tafa's 52%) and massive absorption rate disadvantage (4.99 vs 2.84 strikes absorbed per minute) create multiple exposure points. The betting market appears to properly recognize Tafa as the favorite but may be slightly undervaluing the degree of his advantages, particularly the size and power differential.
Prediction: Tafa's combination of light heavyweight power, superior striking metrics, and strong takedown defense should allow him to control this fight across multiple domains. While Tokkos' wrestling provides a legitimate upset path, the 67-33 split reflects both the striker's clear advantages and the inherent volatility of light heavyweight competition. Expect Tafa to utilize his power advantage to finish early, with the highest probability outcome being a first or second-round KO/TKO as Tokkos is forced to engage in striking exchanges while pursuing takedowns.