Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos
UFC Fight Night Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Junior Tafa
6-3-0
⭐ Favorite • Power Striker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Tuco Tokkos
10-5-0
🔥 Moving Down • Wrestler
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Junior Tafa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Sean Sharaf | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 2:15) |
| 2024-08-17 | Valter Walker | L | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 4:56) |
| 2024-02-17 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | L | TKO - Kick and Punches (R2, 1:14) |
| 2023-08-26 | Parker Porter | W | KO - Punches (R1, 1:24) |
| 2023-04-22 | Mohammed Usman | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tuco Tokkos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Navajo Stirling | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Oumar Sy | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:43) |
| 2023-09-30 | Alonzo Menifield | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Ion Cutelaba | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:22) |
| 2022-11-05 | Ovince Saint Preux | W | KO/TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 2:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.6 vs 40.6) and Grappling Composite (19.5 vs 24.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Tafa Key Advantages
💥 Power Striking
100% Finish RateTrue light heavyweight frame with one-shot KO threat in any exchange. 100% finish rate shows he capitalizes when he hurts opponents.
🎯 Striking Efficiency
+0.85 SLpM EdgeSuperior striking output (3.36 vs 2.51 SLpM) and 10% accuracy advantage creates significant striking differential.
🛡️ Takedown Defense
78% TDD vs 40% ShooterExcellent 78% takedown defense directly counters Tokkos' lone clear path to victory through wrestling.
🔥 Tokkos Key Advantages
🤼 Wrestling Threat
2.65 TD/15minHigher takedown frequency with chain wrestling ability could exploit any defensive lapses from Tafa.
📏 Reach & Height
+1" Reach/HeightSlight 1-inch reach and height advantage can aid level-change entries and distance control.
🎯 Diverse Paths
Multiple Win MethodsMore diverse win conditions with submissions and decisions in regional scene provides multiple paths to victory.
⚠️ Tafa - Unfavorable Scenarios
💨 Cardio Concerns
Tafa struggles if stuck flat-footed on the fence; clinch-wear can sap his burst and explosive power.
🏋️ Weight Management
At 241 lbs, significantly heavier frame could become liability in extended wrestling exchanges.
🎣 No Takedown Offense
Zero takedown attempts limits his ability to create scrambles or change levels when hurt.
⚠️ Tokkos - Unfavorable Scenarios
💥 Power Differential
Dramatic power vs. durability mismatch. Has been hurt standing in both UFC bouts against lighter opponents.
⚖️ Size Deficit
At 206 lbs, 35-pound weight deficit at light heavyweight exacerbates defensive issues against larger opponents.
📊 Poor TD Defense
Defends takedowns at just 33%, creating potential scrambles that may favor the more explosive Tafa.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Tafa Strategy
Press forward with sprawl-and-brawl approach. Use jab-rear-uppercut combinations to punish level changes and look for counter overhand as Tokkos ducks. Maintain distance to avoid clinch wear and preserve explosive power.
Tokkos Strategy
Chain double-legs into trips, force Tafa to post on the mat, hunt top control and short elbows. Avoid mid-range kickboxing entirely and use wrestling to drain Tafa's explosiveness over time.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
📈Win Probabilities
Junior Tafa
Tuco Tokkos
💰Betting Odds Analysis
📊 Model Odds
Moneyline
Props
🏪 Model vs. Market
Market Odds
*Market overround: ~4% (Total: 104%)
🎯 Value Analysis
Market offers better odds than model suggests. Our model sees Tafa winning 68% of the time, making -170 a potential value bet compared to fair value of -212.
Market undervalues Tokkos as an underdog. Model suggests 32% win probability, making +145 poor value compared to fair odds of +212.
📊 Betting Recommendation
🎯Conviction Rating: 7/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Dramatic striking-defense gaps: +2.15 SSA/Min differential highlights Tokkos' vulnerability to precise, powerful striking from a true light heavyweight.
Power vs. size mismatch: Light heavyweight power advantage that Tokkos has never faced, combined with his sub-par UFC performance record.
Tafa's 78% TD-defense: Directly addresses Tokkos' lone clear path to victory through wrestling and ground control.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Tokkos' willingness to grind and Tafa's modest cardio keep a small but live upset window. A sustained wrestling clinic that drains Tafa's explosiveness could steal rounds, or a surprise front-choke in a scramble remains possible.
🏁 Conclusion
This is a classic striker vs wrestler light heavyweight matchup with Tafa holding decisive advantages in power, striking efficiency, and takedown defense. We project Tafa wins 68% of the time, likely via early KO/TKO, but market odds underestimate his dominance.