Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane
Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Vitor Petrino
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Dustin Jacoby | L | KO/TKO - Cross (R3, 3:44) |
| 2024-12-14 | Anthony Smith | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Tyson Pedro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Modestas Bukauskas | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 1:03) |
| 2023-07-08 | Marcin Prachnio | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 3:42) |
Last 5 Fights - Austen Lane
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Mário Pinto | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:39) |
| 2024-10-19 | Robelis Despaigne | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Jhonata Diniz | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-09-10 | Justin Tafa | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:22) |
| 2023-06-24 | Justin Tafa | NC | No Contest - Eye Poke (R1, 0:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
In this crossweight matchup, Petrino's technical wrestling and submission threats face off against Lane's significant size, power, and reach advantages in what promises to be a fascinating stylistic battle.
⭐ Petrino Key Advantages
🤼 Offensive Wrestling
3.24 TD/15minLands 1.5× more TDs at double the accuracy (57% vs 29%). Lane's poor 50% TDD creates multiple takedown opportunities.
⚡ Submission Threat
0.61 Sub/15minElite submission game vs Lane's zero submission attempts. Proven finishing ability on the ground.
💪 Cardio Advantage
10:35 avg durationDouble Lane's average fight time. Can maintain pace while Lane historically fades after early exchanges.
🔥 Lane Key Advantages
📏 Size & Power
45 lb / 4" advantage45 lb weight edge, 4" height, 2.5" reach. True heavyweight power vs light heavyweight frame.
💥 Early KO Threat
Quick finishesHeavy hands and short fight duration (5:02 avg) suggest early finish potential before cardio becomes factor.
🎯 Cage Size Factor
30-ft Octagon30-ft Octagon gives Petrino room to wrestle safely, but also space for Lane to use reach and avoid takedowns.
⚠️ Lane - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Wrestling Defense
50% TDD rate could be exploited by Petrino's 3.24 TD/15min rate at 57% accuracy, leading to prolonged ground control phases.
📊 Cardio Concerns
Average fight duration of 5:02 suggests potential cardio issues in later rounds against Petrino's pace and pressure.
⚡ Size Disadvantage Against Technique
Moving down from heavyweight, his size advantage may be offset by Petrino's superior technique and submission threats.
⚠️ Petrino - Unfavorable Scenarios
💔 Recent Form
Two consecutive losses to Jacoby and Smith show vulnerability to power and submissions when pressured.
📏 Size & Reach Deficit
45 lb weight disadvantage and 2.5" reach deficit could limit takedown entries and expose him to Lane's power shots.
🎯 Striking Defense
53% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to Lane's 2.98 SLpM output and knockout power.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Petrino Strategy
Level-change off the jab, chain wrestle into half-guard where he does his best GNP. Force Lane to work off the fence, wear him down and open finishing shots or ride top to a decision. His cardio advantage becomes more pronounced as the fight progresses.
Lane Strategy
Keep range, exploit 4-inch height with straight rights, punish Petrino's occasional naked entries, hunt early KO before takedown layers accumulate. Use the cage to sprawl and create separation when wrestling attempts come.
🔑 Key Swing Factors
First five minutes are crucial. If Lane can't hurt Petrino early or stuff ≥ 70% of TDs, the Brazilian's pace and control snowball rapidly. Petrino's proven ability to adapt and his superior grappling IQ become more evident as fatigue sets in for Lane.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: 18.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55.6% | Market: 47.6%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~13.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Lane's power advantage - 45-pound weight advantage not properly priced in early rounds
- • Overvalues Petrino's recent form - Coming off 2 losses, may be riding past reputation
- • Weight class dynamics ignored - Lane cutting down from heavyweight creates power differential
- • Finish rate correlation - Both fighters' high finish rates suggest under 2.5 rounds value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Petrino
43% of his wins | Striking power
30% of his wins | Grappling threat
27% of his wins | Technical control
🚀Outcome Distribution - Lane
82% of his wins | Power strikes
14% of his wins | Rare occurrence
4% of his wins | Limited grappling
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Early Window - Lane
- • First 8 minutes: Maximum weight and power advantage
- • Explosive entries: Fast finish history (5:02 average)
- • Momentum swings: Early aggression can overwhelm smaller opponent
- • Critical window: Must capitalize before cardio becomes factor
🎯Building Control - Petrino
- • Survive early storm: Weather initial power disadvantage
- • Technical control: Use superior skills and cardio
- • Grappling transitions: 3.24 TD/15min rate creates opportunities
- • Late finish potential: Submission and striking threats increase
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Petrino despite size disadvantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior technical skills across all areas
- • Wrestling dominance (3.24 vs 1.70 TD/15min)
- • Better cardio and fight pace
- • Multiple finish methods available
- • Lane's limited UFC experience
- • Historical weight-cutting concerns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Massive 45-pound weight disadvantage
- • Lane's early finishing power
- • Recent losses affecting confidence
- • Physical size mismatch
- • Lane's explosive first-round threat
- • Light heavyweight vs heavyweight
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup represents a classic clash between technical skill and raw physical advantages. Petrino brings superior technique across all martial arts disciplines - his wrestling rate (3.24 vs 1.70 TD/15min), takedown accuracy (57% vs 29%), and submission threat (0.61 vs 0.00 per 15min) create multiple clear paths to victory. His recent setbacks against elite competition don't diminish his technical superiority over Lane, a fighter who has struggled at the UFC level.
However, Lane's 45-pound weight advantage cannot be understated in a sport where physics matter. His early finishing ability (5:02 average fight time) and explosive power create genuine knockout threat in the opening rounds. The key question is whether Petrino can survive the initial physicality and implement his superior skills as the fight progresses.
The betting market appears to properly assess the overall fight dynamic, with Petrino's -625 odds reflecting his technical advantages while still accounting for Lane's power threat. Our model suggests slight value on Lane's upset potential given the massive physical disparity and Petrino's recent vulnerabilities against aggressive fighters.
Prediction: Petrino's technical superiority should prevail if he can navigate the early danger. His wrestling dominance provides a clear path to control, while his submission skills offer finish potential. The 82-22 prediction reflects high confidence in skill over size, but acknowledges Lane's legitimate early knockout threat. Expect Petrino to use movement, wrestling, and pace to neutralize Lane's physical advantages and gradually take control as the fight progresses into deeper waters where his conditioning and technique shine.