Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane
UFC Fight Night Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, August 30, 2025
Vitor Petrino
"Icão"
11-2-0
⭐ Heavy Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Austen Lane
13-6-0
🔥 Long Underdog
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Vitor Petrino
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Dustin Jacoby | L | KO/TKO - Cross (R3, 3:44) |
| 2024-12-14 | Anthony Smith | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Tyson Pedro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Modestas Bukauskas | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 1:03) |
| 2023-07-08 | Marcin Prachnio | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 3:42) |
Last 5 Fights - Austen Lane
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Mário Pinto | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 0:39) |
| 2024-10-19 | Robelis Despaigne | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Jhonata Diniz | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-09-10 | Justin Tafa | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:22) |
| 2023-06-24 | Justin Tafa | NC | No Contest - Eye Poke (R1, 0:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
In this crossweight matchup, Petrino's technical wrestling and submission threats face off against Lane's significant size, power, and reach advantages in what promises to be a fascinating stylistic battle.
⭐ Petrino Key Advantages
🤼 Offensive Wrestling
3.24 TD/15minLands 1.5× more TDs at double the accuracy (57% vs 29%). Lane's poor 50% TDD creates multiple takedown opportunities.
⚡ Submission Threat
0.61 Sub/15minElite submission game vs Lane's zero submission attempts. Proven finishing ability on the ground.
💪 Cardio Advantage
10:35 avg durationDouble Lane's average fight time. Can maintain pace while Lane historically fades after early exchanges.
🔥 Lane Key Advantages
📏 Size & Power
45 lb / 4" advantage45 lb weight edge, 4" height, 2.5" reach. True heavyweight power vs light heavyweight frame.
💥 Early KO Threat
Quick finishesHeavy hands and short fight duration (5:02 avg) suggest early finish potential before cardio becomes factor.
🎯 Cage Size Factor
30-ft Octagon30-ft Octagon gives Petrino room to wrestle safely, but also space for Lane to use reach and avoid takedowns.
⚠️ Lane - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Wrestling Defense
50% TDD rate could be exploited by Petrino's 3.24 TD/15min rate at 57% accuracy, leading to prolonged ground control phases.
📊 Cardio Concerns
Average fight duration of 5:02 suggests potential cardio issues in later rounds against Petrino's pace and pressure.
⚡ Size Disadvantage Against Technique
Moving down from heavyweight, his size advantage may be offset by Petrino's superior technique and submission threats.
⚠️ Petrino - Unfavorable Scenarios
💔 Recent Form
Two consecutive losses to Jacoby and Smith show vulnerability to power and submissions when pressured.
📏 Size & Reach Deficit
45 lb weight disadvantage and 2.5" reach deficit could limit takedown entries and expose him to Lane's power shots.
🎯 Striking Defense
53% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to Lane's 2.98 SLpM output and knockout power.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Petrino Strategy
Level-change off the jab, chain wrestle into half-guard where he does his best GNP. Force Lane to work off the fence, wear him down and open finishing shots or ride top to a decision. His cardio advantage becomes more pronounced as the fight progresses.
Lane Strategy
Keep range, exploit 4-inch height with straight rights, punish Petrino's occasional naked entries, hunt early KO before takedown layers accumulate. Use the cage to sprawl and create separation when wrestling attempts come.
🔑 Key Swing Factors
First five minutes are crucial. If Lane can't hurt Petrino early or stuff ≥ 70% of TDs, the Brazilian's pace and control snowball rapidly. Petrino's proven ability to adapt and his superior grappling IQ become more evident as fatigue sets in for Lane.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
We consider fight location, dangerous weapons, and defensive vulnerabilities
🗺️ Fight Location
30-ft Octagon provides space for both Lane's striking range and Petrino's wrestling entries. The larger cage favors both fighters' preferred positions - Lane can circle while Petrino has room for level changes and takedown angles.
⚔️ Dangerous Weapons
Lane's size and power (45 lb advantage) vs. Petrino's submission arsenal (0.61/15min) and ground control. Early KO potential vs. sustained technical pressure creates dynamic finish threats.
🛡️ Defensive Vulnerabilities
Lane's 50% TDD vs. Petrino's recent losses to power. Both have shown they can be hurt, but Petrino's 72.7% finish rate gives him edge in capitalizing on opportunities.
📊 Simulation Outcome
Petrino wins 82 times: primarily via KO/TKO (55) or submission (9), leveraging his wrestling control and finishing ability to dominate.
Lane wins 18 times: mostly via early KO/TKO (15), using size and power to catch Petrino before wrestling takes over.
📈Win Probabilities
Vitor Petrino
Austen Lane
💰Betting Odds Analysis
📊 Model Odds
Moneyline
Props
🏪 Model vs. Market
Market Odds
🎯 Value Spots
Market underestimates Lane's early KO threat. Our model gives him 18% chance versus market's implied 18.18% at +450.
82% finish rate (67 finishes in 82 wins) suggests strong value on fight ending early.
🎯Conviction Rating: 8/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Wrestling Dominance: 3.24 TD/15min at 57% accuracy vs 50% TDD creates clear path to control and ground finishing.
Size Disadvantage Mitigation: Petrino's technique and submission threats offset Lane's physical advantages through skill-based paths to victory.
Historical Patterns: Lane's quick finishes (5:02 avg) suggest cardio concerns that favor Petrino's pace in later rounds.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Lane's 45 lb weight advantage and early finishing power create real knockout threat in first 5 minutes. If Lane can survive initial wrestling pressure and land clean power shots, his size could be decisive.
🏁 Conclusion
This is a classic grappler vs striker with significant size differential. Petrino's technical advantages and multiple paths to victory give him strong favor, but Lane's early knockout potential creates real upset possibility.