Fatima Kline vs Melissa Martinez
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Fatima Kline
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Viktoriia Dudakova | W | TKO - Elbows (R2, 4:27) |
| 2024-07-13 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Melissa Martinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | Alice Ardelean | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-10 | Elise Reed | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52 vs 49) and Grappling Composite (49 vs 13). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Kline Key Advantages
🤼 Grappling Dominance
Threat Level: ExtremeElite 100% takedown accuracy vs Martinez's complete lack of grappling credentials. Once on the ground, Kline's positional control and ground strikes create massive advantage.
🛡️ Defensive Mastery
Superior DefenseAbsorbs only 1.68 strikes per minute vs Martinez's 5.90. This massive defensive gap means Kline can weather early storms while finding wrestling opportunities.
📏 Physical Advantages
Size Edge4" height and 3" reach advantages allow better distance control and more leverage for takedown entries, making it harder for Martinez to land power shots.
🔥 Martinez Key Advantages
💥 Striking Volume
High OutputSuperior 4.50 vs 2.21 strikes per minute gives Martinez early round opportunities to hurt Kline before takedown attempts, especially with her power finishing history.
⚡ Knockout Power
62.5% Finish RateFive KO/TKO victories show legitimate finishing ability that could end the fight quickly if she catches Kline during striking exchanges.
🔥 Experience
Veteran PresenceFive years older with more professional experience. Has seen tough competition and knows how to capitalize on opportunities when they present themselves.
⚠️ Kline - Unfavorable Scenarios
🥊 Standing Trading
Extended striking exchanges favor Martinez's volume and power. Kline's lower output (2.21 vs 4.50 SLpM) could lead to point deficits if takedowns fail.
⚡ Early Pressure
Martinez's early knockout history means Kline could be caught during setup phases for takedowns, especially if she becomes predictable with entries.
🎯 Timing Issues
If takedown timing is off, Kline's lower striking output could leave her vulnerable to Martinez's counters and combinations in open space.
⚠️ Martinez - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Ground Control
Complete lack of grappling experience against Kline's 100% takedown accuracy creates inevitable problems once the fight hits the mat.
🛡️ Defense Lapses
Poor striking defense (5.90 vs 1.68 absorbed per minute) makes her vulnerable to accumulating damage even from Kline's lower-volume output.
📏 Reach Disadvantage
3" reach deficit makes it harder to land clean power shots while staying out of Kline's takedown range, forcing risky entries.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Kline Strategy
Patient wrestling approach - use reach advantage to set up entries, then chain takedown attempts until successful. Once on the ground, control position and work ground strikes to TKO or submit. Avoid extended striking exchanges and focus on taking the fight to her strongest area as quickly as possible.
Martinez Strategy
High-tempo early pressure to land power shots before Kline can establish wrestling. Use volume striking to build early lead and force Kline to take risks. Target body shots to slow down takedown attempts and look for counter opportunities when Kline shoots. Must finish early as prolonged fight favors Kline's grappling.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
📈Win Probabilities
Fatima Kline
Melissa Martinez
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 12.0% | Market: 7.1%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38.0% | Market: 32.3%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45.0% | Market: 39.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Kline's limited UFC experience - Only 2 UFC fights vs higher-level competition
- • Undervalues Martinez's power striking - High volume (4.50 SLpM) creates KO opportunities
- • Ignores grappling vs striking uncertainty - Classic stylistic clash with upset potential
- • Overweights size advantage - 4" height/3" reach gap significant but not decisive
- • Dismisses early finish scenarios - Both fighters have paths to quick victories
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Kline
43% of her wins | Ground strikes
40% of her wins | Control path
17% of her wins | Wrestling threat
🌟Outcome Distribution - Martinez
67% of her wins | Main threat
8% of her wins | Very rare
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Early Window - Martinez
- • Round 1 striking: Use volume and power to hurt Kline early
- • Distance management: Keep fight standing with footwork and counter-wrestling
- • Power shots: Land significant damage before takedowns are secured
- • Early finish: 67% of her wins come via KO/TKO - must end it fast
🎯Ground Game - Kline
- • Survive early storm: Weather Martinez's first-round power shots
- • Secure takedowns: Use wrestling to control pace and position
- • Ground control: Maintain top position and land damaging strikes
- • Late finish: Build damage and hunt for submissions in rounds 2-3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to skill gap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Kline's grappling dominance (49 vs 13 composite)
- • Defensive edge (1.68 vs 5.90 SA/min)
- • Physical advantages (4" height, 3" reach)
- • Wrestling control and takedown threat
- • Youth advantage (24 vs 29)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Martinez's power striking (4.50 SLpM)
- • Limited UFC experience for Kline (2 fights)
- • Early KO potential for Martinez
- • Stylistic clash unpredictability
- • Pressure performance uncertainty
🏁Executive Summary
This women's strawweight clash represents a textbook grappler vs striker matchup with clear advantages to the wrestler. Kline's grappling composite (49) completely overshadows Martinez's minimal ground game (13), while her superior defensive metrics (1.68 vs 5.90 SA/min) and physical advantages create multiple pathways to victory. Martinez's high-volume striking (4.50 SLpM) and knockout power provide legitimate upset potential, but only if she can maintain distance and avoid takedowns.
The betting market appears to accurately assess the skill gap, though it may be slightly overvaluing Kline's dominance at -1300. Our model identifies modest value in Martinez's moneyline (+900 vs model fair value +612) and reasonable value in the fight going the distance, particularly given Martinez's power and Kline's limited UFC experience. The 88-12 split reflects both Kline's overwhelming technical advantages and Martinez's narrow but real pathway to victory.
Prediction: Kline's wrestling credentials and statistical superiority make her the rightful heavy favorite, but Martinez's power striking creates legitimate upset potential if she can hurt Kline early. Expect Kline to hunt for takedowns immediately while Martinez looks to land heavy shots and stuff wrestling attempts. This fight likely ends either via Kline's ground control and damage accumulation or Martinez's early knockout power - extended striking exchanges favor neither fighter's optimal gameplan.