Fatima Kline vs Melissa Martinez
UFC Fight Night Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Kline vs Martinez
Saturday, June 28, 2025
Fatima Kline
"Thunder"
7-1-0
⭐ Heavy Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Melissa Martinez
"Super Mely"
8-1-0
🔥 Power Striker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Fatima Kline
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Viktoriia Dudakova | W | TKO - Elbows (R2, 4:27) |
| 2024-07-13 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Melissa Martinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | Alice Ardelean | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-10 | Elise Reed | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52 vs 49) and Grappling Composite (49 vs 13). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Kline Key Advantages
🤼 Grappling Dominance
Threat Level: ExtremeElite 100% takedown accuracy vs Martinez's complete lack of grappling credentials. Once on the ground, Kline's positional control and ground strikes create massive advantage.
🛡️ Defensive Mastery
Superior DefenseAbsorbs only 1.68 strikes per minute vs Martinez's 5.90. This massive defensive gap means Kline can weather early storms while finding wrestling opportunities.
📏 Physical Advantages
Size Edge4" height and 3" reach advantages allow better distance control and more leverage for takedown entries, making it harder for Martinez to land power shots.
🔥 Martinez Key Advantages
💥 Striking Volume
High OutputSuperior 4.50 vs 2.21 strikes per minute gives Martinez early round opportunities to hurt Kline before takedown attempts, especially with her power finishing history.
⚡ Knockout Power
62.5% Finish RateFive KO/TKO victories show legitimate finishing ability that could end the fight quickly if she catches Kline during striking exchanges.
🔥 Experience
Veteran PresenceFive years older with more professional experience. Has seen tough competition and knows how to capitalize on opportunities when they present themselves.
⚠️ Kline - Unfavorable Scenarios
🥊 Standing Trading
Extended striking exchanges favor Martinez's volume and power. Kline's lower output (2.21 vs 4.50 SLpM) could lead to point deficits if takedowns fail.
⚡ Early Pressure
Martinez's early knockout history means Kline could be caught during setup phases for takedowns, especially if she becomes predictable with entries.
🎯 Timing Issues
If takedown timing is off, Kline's lower striking output could leave her vulnerable to Martinez's counters and combinations in open space.
⚠️ Martinez - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Ground Control
Complete lack of grappling experience against Kline's 100% takedown accuracy creates inevitable problems once the fight hits the mat.
🛡️ Defense Lapses
Poor striking defense (5.90 vs 1.68 absorbed per minute) makes her vulnerable to accumulating damage even from Kline's lower-volume output.
📏 Reach Disadvantage
3" reach deficit makes it harder to land clean power shots while staying out of Kline's takedown range, forcing risky entries.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Kline Strategy
Patient wrestling approach - use reach advantage to set up entries, then chain takedown attempts until successful. Once on the ground, control position and work ground strikes to TKO or submit. Avoid extended striking exchanges and focus on taking the fight to her strongest area as quickly as possible.
Martinez Strategy
High-tempo early pressure to land power shots before Kline can establish wrestling. Use volume striking to build early lead and force Kline to take risks. Target body shots to slow down takedown attempts and look for counter opportunities when Kline shoots. Must finish early as prolonged fight favors Kline's grappling.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
📈Win Probabilities
Fatima Kline
Melissa Martinez
💰Betting Odds Analysis
📊 Model Odds
Moneyline
Props
🏪 Model vs. Market
Market Odds
🎯 Value Analysis
Market odds (-900/+600) imply 90%/10% probability, slightly higher than our 88%/12% model projection. This suggests the market might be slightly overvaluing Kline.
No significant value edges detected. Market has accurately priced the massive skill gap between fighters.
🎯Conviction Rating: 7/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Statistical Dominance: Massive gaps in grappling composite (49 vs 13) and defensive metrics (1.68 vs 5.90 SA/min) create overwhelming advantages for Kline.
Stylistic Mismatch: Martinez's biggest weakness (grappling defense) directly confronts Kline's greatest strength (takedowns and ground control).
Physical Advantages: Height and reach advantages give Kline better takedown entries while keeping her safer from Martinez's power striking.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Martinez's knockout power and early aggression could create problems if Kline is slow to implement her gameplan. Additionally, Kline's UFC experience is still limited, introducing some uncertainty about performance under pressure.
🏁 Conclusion
This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup with the grappler holding overwhelming advantages. Kline should dominate once the fight hits the mat, with her main challenge being to avoid early damage during takedown entries. The market has priced this efficiently.