Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura
Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Lauren Murphy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Jéssica Andrade | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-16 | Miesha Tate | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-09-25 | Valentina Shevchenko | L | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R4, 4:00) |
| 2021-06-12 | Joanne Calderwood | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2020-10-24 | Liliya Shakirova | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Eduarda Moura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Veronica Hardy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Denise Gomes | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:14) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (47 vs 55) and Grappling Composite (32 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
💪 Murphy Key Advantages
💥 Volume Striking
4.05 vs 2.60 SLpMHigher output with 4.05 strikes per minute compared to Moura's 2.60. Murphy's pressure style and ability to maintain pace could overwhelm Moura in stand-up exchanges.
🏃 Experience & Cardio
14 vs 3 UFC fightsVastly superior UFC experience with 14 fights vs Moura's 3. Murphy's proven cardio and ability to maintain high pace for 15 minutes gives her a crucial late-round advantage.
📏 Physical Advantages
+1" reach & heightHeight and reach advantages could help Murphy control distance and keep Moura at bay, preventing takedown attempts and maintaining striking range.
🔥 Moura Key Advantages
🤼 Wrestling Dominance
4.37 vs 1.03 TD/15minElite takedown rate of 4.37 per 15 minutes with 35% accuracy vs Murphy's limited wrestling. Perfect takedown defense (100% vs 70%) shows superior grappling credentials.
🎯 Striking Precision
50% vs 39% accuracySuperior striking accuracy (50% vs 39%) and much better defense (2.45 vs 5.25 absorbed/min) suggests cleaner technique and better defensive awareness.
🏆 Finish Rate
82% vs 38%Exceptional finish rate of 82% compared to Murphy's 38%. Moura's ability to end fights early could neutralize Murphy's cardio advantage before it becomes a factor.
⚠️ Murphy - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Grappling Exchanges
Moura's elite takedown rate (4.37/15min) and perfect takedown defense could neutralize Murphy's striking volume, forcing prolonged ground battles where Moura has a clear advantage.
🎯 Precision vs Volume
Moura's superior accuracy (50% vs 39%) and defensive awareness could mean quality over quantity, with Murphy's volume being negated by cleaner counter-striking.
⚡ Early Finish
Moura's 82% finish rate suggests she could end the fight before Murphy's cardio advantage becomes a factor, particularly if she secures early takedowns.
⚠️ Moura - Unfavorable Scenarios
🏃 Late Round Fatigue
Murphy's proven cardio and high-pace pressure could wear down Moura in later rounds, especially if early takedown attempts are unsuccessful and drain energy.
📏 Distance Management
Murphy's reach and height advantages could make it difficult for Moura to close distance for takedowns, forcing her to strike from outside her comfort zone.
🥊 Volume Pressure
Murphy's 4.05 SLpM could overwhelm Moura if the fight stays standing, potentially leading to judges favoring Murphy's activity and aggression.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Murphy Strategy
Murphy will look to utilize her reach advantage to keep Moura at distance, pump the jab, and maintain high volume striking. She'll focus on staying off the fence, defending takedowns, and making it a cardio battle. Her goal is to survive early takedown attempts and force Moura into deep waters where her experience and conditioning shine.
Moura Strategy
Moura will look to establish early takedowns to control the pace and position. She'll chain wrestling attempts together, work for top control, and hunt for submissions or ground-and-pound finishes. On the feet, she'll focus on clean, accurate strikes while looking for entries into the clinch where she can initiate her takedown game.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 23.8% | Market: 17.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 41.7% | Market: 43.5%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 16.2% | Market: 15.4%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Moura's limited UFC sample size - Only 3 fights against lower-tier opposition
- • Undervalues Murphy's experience edge - 14 UFC fights vs 3, massive experience gap
- • Ignores Murphy's cardio advantage - Proven late-round performance vs unknown
- • Overweights recent Moura loss - Short-term narrative bias affecting true ability assessment
- • Dismisses takedown defense improvements - Murphy's 70% TDD better than historical average
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Murphy
33% of her wins | Boxing power
63% of her wins | Most likely path
Rare but has 1 sub win
🌟Outcome Distribution - Moura
33% of her wins | Ground strikes
25% of her wins | BJJ expertise
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Early Window - Moura
- • Round 1 dominance: Establish takedowns and grappling control early
- • Finish potential: 82% historical finish rate suggests early stoppage likely
- • Ground control: Use wrestling to neutralize Murphy's boxing
- • Submission threat: Hunt for chokes and arm attacks from top position
🎯Late Game - Murphy
- • Survive early storm: Weather first-round grappling attempts
- • Cardio advantage: Use conditioning edge in rounds 2-3
- • Volume striking: Implement high-pace boxing offense
- • Distance control: Use reach advantage to stay off the fence
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Moura's grappling dominance (4.37 TD/15min)
- • Superior finish rate (82% vs 38%)
- • Better striking accuracy (50% vs 39%)
- • Strong ground control and submissions
- • Prime age advantage (31 vs 39)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Murphy's massive experience edge (14 vs 3 fights)
- • Proven cardio and late-round performance
- • Physical advantages (reach/height)
- • Moura's limited elite competition
- • Women's flyweight unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This women's flyweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between Moura's elite grappling capabilities and Murphy's veteran experience combined with superior conditioning. While Moura brings clear technical advantages in takedowns (4.37 vs 1.03 per 15min), striking accuracy (50% vs 39%), and finishing ability (82% vs 38% finish rate), Murphy's massive UFC experience edge (14 vs 3 fights) and proven cardio provide legitimate upset pathways.
The betting market appears to accurately reflect Moura's technical superiority, but may be undervaluing Murphy's experience factor and late-round advantages. Our model identifies significant value in Murphy's moneyline (+465 vs model fair value +320), particularly given her proven ability to survive early adversity and thrive in championship rounds. The 76-24 prediction reflects both Moura's clear paths to victory through grappling dominance and Murphy's realistic scenarios centered around cardio and experience.
Prediction: Moura's grappling skills and finish rate make her the rightful favorite, but this fight carries higher upset potential than the extreme betting odds suggest. If Moura cannot establish early control and finish within the first two rounds, Murphy's conditioning and experience could become decisive factors. Expect Moura to hunt for early takedowns and submission attempts, while Murphy will look to survive the grappling exchanges and turn it into a high-pace boxing match in the later stages.