Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura
UFC Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 26, 2025
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16-6-0
📈 Veteran Underdog
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
11-1-0
⭐ Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Lauren Murphy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Jéssica Andrade | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-16 | Miesha Tate | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-09-25 | Valentina Shevchenko | L | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R4, 4:00) |
| 2021-06-12 | Joanne Calderwood | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2020-10-24 | Liliya Shakirova | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Eduarda Moura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Veronica Hardy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Denise Gomes | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:14) |
| 2023-08-15 | Janaina Silva | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (47 vs 55) and Grappling Composite (32 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
💪 Murphy Key Advantages
💥 Volume Striking
4.05 vs 2.60 SLpMHigher output with 4.05 strikes per minute compared to Moura's 2.60. Murphy's pressure style and ability to maintain pace could overwhelm Moura in stand-up exchanges.
🏃 Experience & Cardio
14 vs 3 UFC fightsVastly superior UFC experience with 14 fights vs Moura's 3. Murphy's proven cardio and ability to maintain high pace for 15 minutes gives her a crucial late-round advantage.
📏 Physical Advantages
+1" reach & heightHeight and reach advantages could help Murphy control distance and keep Moura at bay, preventing takedown attempts and maintaining striking range.
🔥 Moura Key Advantages
🤼 Wrestling Dominance
4.37 vs 1.03 TD/15minElite takedown rate of 4.37 per 15 minutes with 35% accuracy vs Murphy's limited wrestling. Perfect takedown defense (100% vs 70%) shows superior grappling credentials.
🎯 Striking Precision
50% vs 39% accuracySuperior striking accuracy (50% vs 39%) and much better defense (2.45 vs 5.25 absorbed/min) suggests cleaner technique and better defensive awareness.
🏆 Finish Rate
82% vs 38%Exceptional finish rate of 82% compared to Murphy's 38%. Moura's ability to end fights early could neutralize Murphy's cardio advantage before it becomes a factor.
⚠️ Murphy - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Grappling Exchanges
Moura's elite takedown rate (4.37/15min) and perfect takedown defense could neutralize Murphy's striking volume, forcing prolonged ground battles where Moura has a clear advantage.
🎯 Precision vs Volume
Moura's superior accuracy (50% vs 39%) and defensive awareness could mean quality over quantity, with Murphy's volume being negated by cleaner counter-striking.
⚡ Early Finish
Moura's 82% finish rate suggests she could end the fight before Murphy's cardio advantage becomes a factor, particularly if she secures early takedowns.
⚠️ Moura - Unfavorable Scenarios
🏃 Late Round Fatigue
Murphy's proven cardio and high-pace pressure could wear down Moura in later rounds, especially if early takedown attempts are unsuccessful and drain energy.
📏 Distance Management
Murphy's reach and height advantages could make it difficult for Moura to close distance for takedowns, forcing her to strike from outside her comfort zone.
🥊 Volume Pressure
Murphy's 4.05 SLpM could overwhelm Moura if the fight stays standing, potentially leading to judges favoring Murphy's activity and aggression.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Murphy Strategy
Murphy will look to utilize her reach advantage to keep Moura at distance, pump the jab, and maintain high volume striking. She'll focus on staying off the fence, defending takedowns, and making it a cardio battle. Her goal is to survive early takedown attempts and force Moura into deep waters where her experience and conditioning shine.
Moura Strategy
Moura will look to establish early takedowns to control the pace and position. She'll chain wrestling attempts together, work for top control, and hunt for submissions or ground-and-pound finishes. On the feet, she'll focus on clean, accurate strikes while looking for entries into the clinch where she can initiate her takedown game.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
📈Win Probabilities
Lauren Murphy
Eduarda Moura
💰Betting Odds Analysis
📊 Model Odds
Moneyline
Props
🏪 Model vs. Market
Market Odds
🎯 Value Assessment
Market odds (-651) are much more extreme than model (-163), suggesting the betting market may be overvaluing Moura. Murphy at +465 could offer value.
20% probability offers solid value at +400, given Moura's grappling dominance and submission threat against Murphy's limited ground game.
🎯Conviction Rating: 7/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Clear Technical Edges: Moura's grappling advantage (4.37 vs 1.03 TD/15min) and striking precision (50% vs 39%) provide multiple paths to victory.
Style Matchup: Moura's wrestling-centric approach should neutralize Murphy's primary advantage (volume striking) by controlling fight geography.
Finish Potential: 82% finish rate suggests Moura can end fights before Murphy's cardio becomes a determining factor.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Murphy's experience edge (14 vs 3 UFC fights) and proven cardio could create problems if Moura's early takedown attempts are unsuccessful. The larger cage may favor Murphy's ability to sprawl and maintain distance.
🏁 Conclusion
Moura's technical advantages and finish potential make her the rightful favorite, but Murphy's experience and cardio provide realistic upset scenarios. The fight likely comes down to whether Moura can establish her grappling early.
📊 Detailed Analysis Summary
Comprehensive fight breakdown and key insights
🔵 Lauren Murphy
Veteran Underdog - Experience & Volume
💪 Strengths
- • Elite UFC experience (14 fights vs 3)
- • High volume striking (4.05 SLpM)
- • Proven cardio and durability
- • Physical advantages (+1" reach/height)
- • Late-round conditioning
⚠️ Weaknesses
- • Limited wrestling defense (70% TDD)
- • Lower striking accuracy (39%)
- • Poor finish rate (38%)
- • Absorbs significant damage (5.25/min)
- • Age factor (39 years old)
🎯 Path to Victory
Keep fight standing, utilize reach advantage, maintain high pace, survive early takedown attempts, and make it a cardio battle in rounds 2-3.
🔴 Eduarda Moura
Technical Favorite - Grappling & Precision
💪 Strengths
- • Elite wrestling (4.37 TD/15min, 100% TDD)
- • Superior striking precision (50% accuracy)
- • Exceptional finish rate (82%)
- • Strong submission game (0.36/15min)
- • Prime age (30 years old)
⚠️ Weaknesses
- • Limited UFC experience (3 fights)
- • Lower striking volume (2.60 SLpM)
- • Physical disadvantages (-1" reach/height)
- • Recent loss to Gomes
- • Unproven late-round cardio
🎯 Path to Victory
Establish early takedowns, control top position, hunt for submissions, use clean striking in exchanges, and finish fight before round 3.
🔄 Key Matchup Factors
Wrestling vs Anti-Wrestling
Moura's elite takedown game (4.37/15min) against Murphy's improving but limited TDD (70%). This will likely determine fight geography and outcome.
Pace & Timing
Murphy's cardio advantage vs Moura's finish rate (82%). Early finish potential against late-round experience and conditioning.
Volume vs Precision
Murphy's high output (4.05 SLpM) vs Moura's accuracy (50% vs 39%). Quality over quantity in striking exchanges.
🔮 Final Prediction
Moura by Decision or Submission • 62% Confidence
While Murphy's experience and cardio provide upset potential, Moura's technical advantages in grappling and striking precision should prove decisive. The key factor will be whether Moura can establish her wrestling early and avoid a prolonged standup battle where Murphy's volume and conditioning could become factors.
Most Likely Outcome: Moura secures takedowns in rounds 1-2, controls position, and either finishes by submission or wins a clear decision based on grappling control and ground strikes.