Gabriel Bonfim vs Stephen Thompson
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Round Distribution
Recent Fight History
Gabriel Bonfim - Last 5 Fights
Stephen Thompson - Last 5 Fights
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56.7 vs 53.7) and Grappling Composite (67 vs 27.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Radar Chart Metrics Explanation
SLpM
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute - Offensive striking output
StrAcc
Striking Accuracy (%) - Precision of strikes landed
StrDef
Striking Defense (%) - Ability to avoid opponent's strikes
TD15
Takedowns per 15min - Wrestling offensive ability
TDAcc
Takedown Accuracy (%) - Success rate of takedown attempts
TDDef
Takedown Defense (%) - Ability to defend takedowns
SubPer15
Submissions per 15min - Submission attempt rate
Note
All metrics normalized to 0-100 scale for comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Bonfim Key Advantages
🤼 Grappling Supremacy
Threat Level: Critical67.0 grappling composite vs Thompson's 27.5 represents a massive 144% advantage. With 2.21 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 77% takedown accuracy, Bonfim poses an existential threat on the ground where Thompson has minimal offensive output.
⚡ Youth & Athleticism
Physical EdgeAt 27 years old, Bonfim is 15 years younger than Thompson and in his physical prime. His explosive takedowns and submission scrambles could exploit Thompson's declining athleticism.
🎯 Finish Potential
75% Finish RateBonfim's 75% finish rate significantly outpaces Thompson's 50%, with most victories coming via submission. His ability to end fights early could prevent Thompson from utilizing his cardio advantage.
🔥 Thompson Key Advantages
🥋 Elite Striking & Distance
Technical MasteryThompson's karate-based striking and 75" reach (2.5" advantage) allow him to control distance and land precise counters. His ability to maintain range could neutralize Bonfim's takedown attempts.
🧠 Experience & IQ
Veteran SavvyWith 22 UFC fights and experience against elite competition, Thompson's fight IQ and ability to adapt mid-fight could help him avoid dangerous grappling exchanges and exploit openings.
💪 Cardio & Durability
Late-Round FactorThompson's superior cardio (62 vs 57) and ability to maintain pace over 15 minutes could favor him if the fight stays standing and goes to the later rounds.
⚠️ Bonfim - Unfavorable Scenarios
🎯 Striking Disadvantage
Thompson's superior reach and striking technique could keep Bonfim at distance, preventing takedown setups and forcing him into prolonged striking exchanges where he's outmatched.
⏰ Cardio Concerns
Bonfim's 6:48 average fight time suggests potential cardio issues in longer fights. If Thompson can defend takedowns and extend the fight, Bonfim may fade in the later rounds.
📊 Competition Level
Thompson represents a significant step up in competition. Bonfim's one UFC loss came via strikes, and Thompson's elite-level experience could expose technical gaps.
⚠️ Thompson - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Grappling Vulnerability
Thompson's 63% takedown defense and minimal ground game make him extremely vulnerable if Bonfim secures a takedown. His submission defense against elite grapplers is largely untested.
📉 Recent Form
Thompson has lost 2 straight and 4 of his last 6 fights, showing signs of decline. His reflexes and defensive reactions may not be adequate against a young, explosive opponent.
⚡ Age Factor
At 42, Thompson is past his athletic prime. Bonfim's youth and explosiveness could overwhelm Thompson's timing-based defensive system, especially in scrambles.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Bonfim Strategy
Bonfim will pressure forward aggressively, mixing striking entries with explosive takedown attempts. He'll look to clinch, work against the fence, and drag Thompson to the ground where his submission skills can take over. His goal is to avoid prolonged striking exchanges and finish early via submission.
Thompson Strategy
Thompson will utilize his reach advantage and footwork to maintain distance, throwing sharp jabs and kicks to keep Bonfim at bay. He'll circle away from takedown attempts, use the cage to create angles, and look to land precise counters when Bonfim overextends. His path to victory is outpointing over three rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
We analyze stylistic matchups, physical attributes, and recent performance trends
🗺️ Fight Geography
This fight will likely take place wherever Bonfim wants it. His explosive takedowns (77% accuracy) against Thompson's 63% defense suggests significant time on the ground where Bonfim dominates.
⚔️ Dangerous Weapons
Bonfim's submission game (2.21 attempts per 15min) vs Thompson's striking precision (46% accuracy, 4.11 SLpM). Bonfim's finishing tools are more diverse and threatening in this matchup.
⚡ Age & Athletics
The 15-year age gap (27 vs 42) heavily favors Bonfim's explosiveness and recovery. Thompson's declining athleticism makes him vulnerable to Bonfim's dynamic grappling.
📊 Simulation Outcome
Bonfim wins 68 times: primarily via submission (38) or decision (20), leveraging his grappling dominance to control and finish Thompson on the ground.
Thompson wins 32 times: mostly via decision (17) or striking (14), using distance control and experience to avoid takedowns and outpoint over three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 75.0% | Market: 80.0%
NO VALUE
Model: 25.0% | Market: 25.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: ~35.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Bonfim slightly overvalued - Market implies 80% but model suggests 75%
- • Submission props offer value - Bonfim's grappling edge undervalued
- • Thompson price fair - 25% chance appropriately priced at +300
- • Age gap factor - Market may undervalue athletic decline at 42
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Bonfim
56% of his wins | Grappling dominance
28% of his wins | Ground control
16% of his wins | Ground & pound
🌟Outcome Distribution - Thompson
56% of his wins | Striking precision
40% of his wins | Distance control
4% of his wins | Defensive escapes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🥊Bonfim Gameplan by Round
- • Round 1: Establish takedown threat, close distance, avoid striking exchanges
- • Round 2: Secure takedowns, ground control, work for submissions
- • Round 3: Maintain pressure, avoid desperation, control pace
- • Key factors: Wrestling entries, BJJ transitions, cardio management
🎯Thompson Gameplan by Round
- • Round 1: Use distance, karate stance, avoid clinch exchanges
- • Round 2: Sprawl defense, wall work, counter-strike
- • Round 3: Push pace if behind, use experience advantage
- • Key factors: Takedown defense, distance control, late cardio
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Bonfim's grappling dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling edge (67.0 vs 27.5)
- • 15-year age advantage favoring athleticism
- • Thompson's declining takedown defense (63%)
- • Bonfim's submission rate (2.21 per 15min)
- • Thompson's recent losses to younger grapplers
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Thompson's elite striking distance control
- • Bonfim's limited UFC experience (5 fights)
- • Thompson's veteran experience and fight IQ
- • Potential for point fighting decision
- • Cardio questions for Bonfim in 3 rounds
🏁Executive Summary
This fight represents one of the most lopsided stylistic matchups we've analyzed, with Bonfim holding a massive 144% advantage in grappling composite scores. The 27-year-old Brazilian's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and explosive athleticism should overwhelm Thompson's declining takedown defense and limited ground game. While Thompson's striking expertise is world-class, his 63% takedown defense against a 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes threat creates a critical vulnerability.
The age gap (15 years) cannot be understated - Thompson at 42 has shown declining performance against younger, athletic grapplers in recent fights. Bonfim's 2.21 submission attempts per 15 minutes paired with a 77% takedown accuracy creates multiple paths to victory. Thompson's only realistic path involves perfect distance management and sprawl defense for 15 minutes, which becomes increasingly unlikely against Bonfim's relentless pressure.
Prediction: Bonfim's grappling dominance should manifest early and decisively. Expect takedowns within the first round leading to ground control and submission attempts. The 75-25 prediction reflects the overwhelming stylistic advantage while acknowledging Thompson's elite-level experience and striking ability. However, the grappling gap is simply too large to overcome, making Bonfim an excellent betting favorite with exceptional value on submission prop bets.