Gabriel Bonfim vs Stephen Thompson
UFC Fight Night Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
17-1-0
⭐ Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Round Distribution
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-8-1
🔥 Underdog
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Round Distribution
Recent Fight History
Gabriel Bonfim - Last 5 Fights
Stephen Thompson - Last 5 Fights
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56.7 vs 53.7) and Grappling Composite (67 vs 27.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Radar Chart Metrics Explanation
SLpM
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute - Offensive striking output
StrAcc
Striking Accuracy (%) - Precision of strikes landed
StrDef
Striking Defense (%) - Ability to avoid opponent's strikes
TD15
Takedowns per 15min - Wrestling offensive ability
TDAcc
Takedown Accuracy (%) - Success rate of takedown attempts
TDDef
Takedown Defense (%) - Ability to defend takedowns
SubPer15
Submissions per 15min - Submission attempt rate
Note
All metrics normalized to 0-100 scale for comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Bonfim Key Advantages
🤼 Grappling Supremacy
Threat Level: Critical67.0 grappling composite vs Thompson's 27.5 represents a massive 144% advantage. With 2.21 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 77% takedown accuracy, Bonfim poses an existential threat on the ground where Thompson has minimal offensive output.
⚡ Youth & Athleticism
Physical EdgeAt 27 years old, Bonfim is 15 years younger than Thompson and in his physical prime. His explosive takedowns and submission scrambles could exploit Thompson's declining athleticism.
🎯 Finish Potential
75% Finish RateBonfim's 75% finish rate significantly outpaces Thompson's 50%, with most victories coming via submission. His ability to end fights early could prevent Thompson from utilizing his cardio advantage.
🔥 Thompson Key Advantages
🥋 Elite Striking & Distance
Technical MasteryThompson's karate-based striking and 75" reach (2.5" advantage) allow him to control distance and land precise counters. His ability to maintain range could neutralize Bonfim's takedown attempts.
🧠 Experience & IQ
Veteran SavvyWith 22 UFC fights and experience against elite competition, Thompson's fight IQ and ability to adapt mid-fight could help him avoid dangerous grappling exchanges and exploit openings.
💪 Cardio & Durability
Late-Round FactorThompson's superior cardio (62 vs 57) and ability to maintain pace over 15 minutes could favor him if the fight stays standing and goes to the later rounds.
⚠️ Bonfim - Unfavorable Scenarios
🎯 Striking Disadvantage
Thompson's superior reach and striking technique could keep Bonfim at distance, preventing takedown setups and forcing him into prolonged striking exchanges where he's outmatched.
⏰ Cardio Concerns
Bonfim's 6:48 average fight time suggests potential cardio issues in longer fights. If Thompson can defend takedowns and extend the fight, Bonfim may fade in the later rounds.
📊 Competition Level
Thompson represents a significant step up in competition. Bonfim's one UFC loss came via strikes, and Thompson's elite-level experience could expose technical gaps.
⚠️ Thompson - Unfavorable Scenarios
🤼 Grappling Vulnerability
Thompson's 63% takedown defense and minimal ground game make him extremely vulnerable if Bonfim secures a takedown. His submission defense against elite grapplers is largely untested.
📉 Recent Form
Thompson has lost 2 straight and 4 of his last 6 fights, showing signs of decline. His reflexes and defensive reactions may not be adequate against a young, explosive opponent.
⚡ Age Factor
At 42, Thompson is past his athletic prime. Bonfim's youth and explosiveness could overwhelm Thompson's timing-based defensive system, especially in scrambles.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Bonfim Strategy
Bonfim will pressure forward aggressively, mixing striking entries with explosive takedown attempts. He'll look to clinch, work against the fence, and drag Thompson to the ground where his submission skills can take over. His goal is to avoid prolonged striking exchanges and finish early via submission.
Thompson Strategy
Thompson will utilize his reach advantage and footwork to maintain distance, throwing sharp jabs and kicks to keep Bonfim at bay. He'll circle away from takedown attempts, use the cage to create angles, and look to land precise counters when Bonfim overextends. His path to victory is outpointing over three rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and statistical analysis
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
We analyze stylistic matchups, physical attributes, and recent performance trends
🗺️ Fight Geography
This fight will likely take place wherever Bonfim wants it. His explosive takedowns (77% accuracy) against Thompson's 63% defense suggests significant time on the ground where Bonfim dominates.
⚔️ Dangerous Weapons
Bonfim's submission game (2.21 attempts per 15min) vs Thompson's striking precision (46% accuracy, 4.11 SLpM). Bonfim's finishing tools are more diverse and threatening in this matchup.
⚡ Age & Athletics
The 15-year age gap (27 vs 42) heavily favors Bonfim's explosiveness and recovery. Thompson's declining athleticism makes him vulnerable to Bonfim's dynamic grappling.
📊 Simulation Outcome
Bonfim wins 68 times: primarily via submission (38) or decision (20), leveraging his grappling dominance to control and finish Thompson on the ground.
Thompson wins 32 times: mostly via decision (17) or striking (14), using distance control and experience to avoid takedowns and outpoint over three rounds.
📈Win Probabilities
Gabriel Bonfim
Stephen Thompson
💰Model Betting Odds
📊 Projected Odds Based on Statistical Model
Moneyline
Fight Props
🎯Conviction Rating: 8.5/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Massive Grappling Edge: Bonfim's 67.0 grappling composite vs Thompson's 27.5 represents a 144% advantage - one of the largest skill gaps we've analyzed.
Age & Athleticism: The 15-year age gap heavily favors Bonfim's explosiveness and ability to capitalize on scrambles where Thompson has shown vulnerability.
Thompson's Decline: Two straight losses and declining performance against younger, more athletic opponents suggests this matchup favors Bonfim heavily.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Thompson's striking expertise and distance control could potentially keep the fight standing, though his 63% takedown defense suggests this is unlikely. If Bonfim's cardio is an issue, Thompson could steal later rounds.
🏁 Conclusion
This represents a classic grappler vs striker matchup where the grappling advantage is so overwhelming that it becomes the defining factor. Bonfim should dominate wherever this fight goes, making him an excellent betting favorite with strong value on his submission props.