Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin
UFC Fight Night Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Chris Curtis
"The Action Man"
31-12-0
⭐ Favorite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20-11-0
🔥 Moving Up
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Chris Curtis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Roman Kopylov | L | TKO - High kick (R3, 4:59) |
| 2024-04-06 | Brendan Allen | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Marc-André Barriault | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Nassourdine Imavov | NC | No Contest - Accidental clash of heads (R2, 3:04) |
| 2023-04-08 | Kelvin Gastelum | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Max Griffin
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Michael Chiesa | L | Submission - Rear-naked choke (R3, 1:56) |
| 2024-02-10 | Jeremiah Wells | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Michael Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-29 | Tim Means | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-26 | Neil Magny | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (42 vs 58). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive tactical analysis for Curtis vs Griffin at middleweight
⭐ Curtis Key Advantages
💥 Walk-Forward Boxing
ELO 1097.7Curtis' aggressive walking forward style puts constant pressure on opponents. His 5.9 SLpM and pocket defense allow him to control range and tempo, particularly effective against Griffin who prefers a more measured approach.
🛡️ Defensive Sprawling
90% TDDWith 90% takedown defense, Curtis can stuff Griffin's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing where his walking forward pressure and boxing can be most effective.
📈 Finish Rate
60% Finish RateCurtis' 60% finish rate shows his ability to capitalize on openings. His power shots and pressure style can break down Griffin if the welterweight struggles with the size and pace.
🔥 Griffin Key Advantages
🥊 Muay-Thai Boxing
ELO 1062.6Griffin's Muay-Thai background gives him versatility in the clinch and with elbows/knees that Curtis may not be prepared for. His technical boxing can match Curtis' pressure with counter-striking.
🦵 Calf Kicks
Technical EdgeGriffin's calf kick game could slow down Curtis' aggressive forward movement. Low kicks can disrupt Curtis' timing and make his pressure less effective over three rounds.
🤼 Clinch Wrestling
1.46 TD/15minDespite lower takedown accuracy (51%), Griffin's wrestling could provide key moments of control and allow him to slow Curtis' pace while working in the clinch with knees and elbows.
⚠️ Curtis - Unfavorable Scenarios
📏 Reach Disadvantage
Griffin's 1" reach advantage could keep Curtis on the outside, negating his pocket defense and forcing him to overcommit to get inside, creating counter opportunities.
🦵 Leg Kick Accumulation
Griffin's calf kicks could slow Curtis' forward movement and reduce his pressure effectiveness, especially if Curtis doesn't check kicks properly or adjust his stance.
⚖️ Weight Cut Issues
As a natural middleweight, Curtis may struggle with the middleweight limit if Griffin makes weight easily at 185, potentially affecting his cardio and power late in the fight.
⚠️ Griffin - Unfavorable Scenarios
📈 Size Disadvantage
Moving up from welterweight, Griffin will face a larger, stronger opponent in Curtis. The size difference could become apparent in clinch exchanges and overall power.
🛡️ Defensive Gaps
Griffin's 60% striking defense is vulnerable to Curtis' high-volume approach. Curtis' pressure could overwhelm Griffin's defensive systems over time.
🥊 Pocket Boxing
If Curtis gets inside and forces pocket boxing exchanges, Griffin's movement and technical advantages become less effective in phone booth fighting scenarios.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Curtis Strategy
Curtis will look to establish his walking forward pressure early, cutting off the cage and forcing Griffin into boxing exchanges. He'll use his pocket defense to slip shots while closing distance, then unleash combinations. Key is nullifying Griffin's kicks early and making it a dirty boxing match where his size and strength advantages become apparent.
Griffin Strategy
Griffin needs to use his reach and movement to keep Curtis on the outside. Calf kicks and jabs to disrupt Curtis' forward momentum, then counter when Curtis overextends. If taken down or clinched, use Muay-Thai in close with knees and elbows. Key is avoiding prolonged pocket boxing exchanges and maintaining distance control for three rounds.
📈Historical Performance Analysis
Curtis Recent Trajectory
📊 Performance Trends
✅ Strengths Against Griffin Type
- • Competitive vs wrestlers (Barriault win)
- • Strong anti-wrestling (90% TDD)
- • Pressure overwhelms technical fighters
- • Size advantage in cage work
⚠️ Concerns vs Griffin
- • Vulnerable to head kicks (Kopylov KO)
- • Struggling with decision losses recently
- • Coming off tough TKO loss
Griffin Recent Trajectory
📊 Performance Trends
✅ Strengths Against Curtis Type
- • Excellent calf kick game
- • Good counter-striking ability
- • Wrestling advantage (Chiesa fight)
- • Submission threat
⚠️ Concerns vs Curtis
- • Size disadvantage in clinch
- • Recent submission loss concerns
- • Moving up weight class risk
- • Inconsistent recent form
🥊 Style Matchup Assessment
Pressure vs Counters
Size advantage
Reach & kicks
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
Advanced simulation considering fight location, dangerous weapons, and defensive vulnerabilities
🗺️ Fight Location
The fight will likely take place standing and in the pocket. Curtis' walking forward pressure naturally leads to phone booth exchanges where his boxing and size advantages are maximized. Griffin's movement will be limited by cage cutting.
⚔️ Dangerous Weapons
Curtis' walking forward combinations and pocket power vs Griffin's calf kicks and counter right hands. Both fighters have finishing ability, but Curtis' pressure style forces more exchanges where his power shots become more likely to land.
🛡️ Defensive Vulnerabilities
Curtis' 54% striking defense can be exploited by Griffin's counters if he maintains distance. Griffin's 60% striking defense is vulnerable to volume pressure and pocket exchanges where his movement is restricted.
📊 Simulation Outcome
Curtis wins 65 times: primarily via TKO (30 times) and decision (35 times). His pressure forces Griffin into uncomfortable exchanges where size and power advantages manifest.
Griffin wins 35 times: mostly via decision (25 times) using movement and counters, plus occasional TKO (10 times) when catching Curtis overextending or hurt by calf kicks.
Curtis Victory Methods
Griffin Victory Methods
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Statistical simulation based on style matchup and performance metrics
📈Win Probabilities
Chris Curtis
Max Griffin
💰Betting Odds Analysis
📊 Model Odds
Moneyline
Props
🏪 Model vs. Market
Market Odds
🎯 Value Assessment
Our model aligns well with market odds. Curtis -260 (72% implied) and Griffin +220 (28% implied) reflect the market's confidence in Curtis following Griffin's recent struggles and Curtis' recent loss.
Under 2.5 rounds might offer slight value given both fighters' finishing ability and Curtis' pressure style potentially forcing early exchanges.
🎯Conviction Rating: 6/10
✅ Confidence Factors
Style Matchup: Curtis' walk-forward pressure directly counters Griffin's measured approach. Griffin's movement advantage is neutralized in phone booth exchanges.
Size Advantage: Curtis fighting at his natural weight class versus Griffin moving up from welterweight should provide noticeable strength and power advantages.
ELO Edge: Curtis' 1097.7 vs Griffin's 1062.6 ELO reflects his higher level of competition and performance consistency in recent fights.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Griffin's reach advantage and kick game could disrupt Curtis' gameplan if he can maintain distance. Weight class change brings unknown variables, and Griffin's recent activity edge could make a difference in fight sharpness.
🏁 Final Assessment
This is a classic pressure versus technique matchup. Curtis should win by imposing his will and making it a dog fight, but Griffin has the tools to keep it technical and steal rounds if he executes perfectly. Market odds appear accurate with slight lean toward Curtis.