Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Chris Curtis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Roman Kopylov | L | TKO - High kick (R3, 4:59) |
| 2024-04-06 | Brendan Allen | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Marc-André Barriault | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Nassourdine Imavov | NC | No Contest - Accidental clash of heads (R2, 3:04) |
| 2023-04-08 | Kelvin Gastelum | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Max Griffin
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Michael Chiesa | L | Submission - Rear-naked choke (R3, 1:56) |
| 2024-02-10 | Jeremiah Wells | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Michael Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-29 | Tim Means | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-26 | Neil Magny | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (42 vs 58). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive tactical analysis for Curtis vs Griffin at middleweight
⭐ Curtis Key Advantages
💥 Walk-Forward Boxing
ELO 1097.7Curtis' aggressive walking forward style puts constant pressure on opponents. His 5.9 SLpM and pocket defense allow him to control range and tempo, particularly effective against Griffin who prefers a more measured approach.
🛡️ Defensive Sprawling
90% TDDWith 90% takedown defense, Curtis can stuff Griffin's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing where his walking forward pressure and boxing can be most effective.
📈 Finish Rate
60% Finish RateCurtis' 60% finish rate shows his ability to capitalize on openings. His power shots and pressure style can break down Griffin if the welterweight struggles with the size and pace.
🔥 Griffin Key Advantages
🥊 Muay-Thai Boxing
ELO 1062.6Griffin's Muay-Thai background gives him versatility in the clinch and with elbows/knees that Curtis may not be prepared for. His technical boxing can match Curtis' pressure with counter-striking.
🦵 Calf Kicks
Technical EdgeGriffin's calf kick game could slow down Curtis' aggressive forward movement. Low kicks can disrupt Curtis' timing and make his pressure less effective over three rounds.
🤼 Clinch Wrestling
1.46 TD/15minDespite lower takedown accuracy (51%), Griffin's wrestling could provide key moments of control and allow him to slow Curtis' pace while working in the clinch with knees and elbows.
⚠️ Curtis - Unfavorable Scenarios
📏 Reach Disadvantage
Griffin's 1" reach advantage could keep Curtis on the outside, negating his pocket defense and forcing him to overcommit to get inside, creating counter opportunities.
🦵 Leg Kick Accumulation
Griffin's calf kicks could slow Curtis' forward movement and reduce his pressure effectiveness, especially if Curtis doesn't check kicks properly or adjust his stance.
⚖️ Weight Cut Issues
As a natural middleweight, Curtis may struggle with the middleweight limit if Griffin makes weight easily at 185, potentially affecting his cardio and power late in the fight.
⚠️ Griffin - Unfavorable Scenarios
📈 Size Disadvantage
Moving up from welterweight, Griffin will face a larger, stronger opponent in Curtis. The size difference could become apparent in clinch exchanges and overall power.
🛡️ Defensive Gaps
Griffin's 60% striking defense is vulnerable to Curtis' high-volume approach. Curtis' pressure could overwhelm Griffin's defensive systems over time.
🥊 Pocket Boxing
If Curtis gets inside and forces pocket boxing exchanges, Griffin's movement and technical advantages become less effective in phone booth fighting scenarios.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Curtis Strategy
Curtis will look to establish his walking forward pressure early, cutting off the cage and forcing Griffin into boxing exchanges. He'll use his pocket defense to slip shots while closing distance, then unleash combinations. Key is nullifying Griffin's kicks early and making it a dirty boxing match where his size and strength advantages become apparent.
Griffin Strategy
Griffin needs to use his reach and movement to keep Curtis on the outside. Calf kicks and jabs to disrupt Curtis' forward momentum, then counter when Curtis overextends. If taken down or clinched, use Muay-Thai in close with knees and elbows. Key is avoiding prolonged pocket boxing exchanges and maintaining distance control for three rounds.
📈Historical Performance Analysis
Curtis Recent Trajectory
📊 Performance Trends
✅ Strengths Against Griffin Type
- • Competitive vs wrestlers (Barriault win)
- • Strong anti-wrestling (90% TDD)
- • Pressure overwhelms technical fighters
- • Size advantage in cage work
⚠️ Concerns vs Griffin
- • Vulnerable to head kicks (Kopylov KO)
- • Struggling with decision losses recently
- • Coming off tough TKO loss
Griffin Recent Trajectory
📊 Performance Trends
✅ Strengths Against Curtis Type
- • Excellent calf kick game
- • Good counter-striking ability
- • Wrestling advantage (Chiesa fight)
- • Submission threat
⚠️ Concerns vs Curtis
- • Size disadvantage in clinch
- • Recent submission loss concerns
- • Moving up weight class risk
- • Inconsistent recent form
🥊 Style Matchup Assessment
Pressure vs Counters
Size advantage
Reach & kicks
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Statistical simulation based on style matchup and performance metrics
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
SLIGHT DOG VALUE
Model: 65.0% | Market: 73.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 37.0% | Market: 30.3%
ALIGNED VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: ~38.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Market too steep on Curtis - -270 odds imply 73% probability but model suggests 65%
- • Griffin offers slight value - Moving up in weight but experience edge undervalued
- • Decision props aligned - Market correctly assesses high finish probability
- • Style matchup factor - Curtis' pressure advantage may be overvalued by public
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Curtis
58% of his wins | Pressure boxing style
38% of his wins | Volume control
3% of his wins | Rare but possible
🌟Outcome Distribution - Griffin
63% of his wins | Movement and counters
29% of his wins | Counter shots or leg kicks
9% of his wins | Wrestling skills
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🥊Curtis Gameplan by Round
- • Round 1: Establish pressure, close distance, land body shots
- • Round 2: Continue boxing clinic, avoid Griffin's range game
- • Round 3: Push pace if ahead, hunt finish if behind
- • Key factors: Sprawl defense, pocket boxing, forward pressure
🎯Griffin Gameplan by Round
- • Round 1: Use reach, calf kicks, avoid pocket exchanges
- • Round 2: Mix in takedowns, clinch work, frustrate Curtis
- • Round 3: Volume striking, technical boxing, steal close round
- • Key factors: Distance management, takedown mixing, counters
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence in Curtis' advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Size & weight class advantage
- • ELO rating superiority (1097.7 vs 1062.6)
- • Curtis' pressure style vs Griffin's approach
- • Elite takedown defense (90%)
- • Higher output striking (5.9 vs 4.4 SLpM)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Griffin's reach and height advantage
- • Griffin's better striking defense (60% vs 54%)
- • Weight class jump uncertainty for Griffin
- • Curtis' recent losses to elite opposition
- • Griffin's takedown threat (1.46 per 15min)
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash represents a fascinating style contrast between Curtis' walk-forward pressure boxing and Griffin's technical distance-fighting approach. Curtis holds clear advantages in size, power, and wrestling defense, while fighting in his natural weight class. His pressure style should theoretically overwhelm Griffin's measured approach, particularly in the phone booth exchanges where Curtis excels.
However, Griffin's reach advantage, superior striking defense, and takedown ability provide legitimate paths to victory. His movement up from welterweight introduces uncertainty, but his experience edge and technical precision cannot be overlooked. The market appears to slightly overvalue Curtis' advantages, creating modest value on Griffin's side.
Prediction: Curtis' inside boxing clinic should prevail through sustained pressure and superior size advantages. The 65-35 prediction reflects Curtis' clear stylistic edge while acknowledging Griffin's technical tools and experience. Expect Curtis to force exchanges in the pocket, neutralize Griffin's range game, and either score a mid-fight TKO or control decisions through volume and aggression.