Chidi Njokuani vs Jake Matthews
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Chidi Njokuani - Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | W | TKO - Knee and Elbows (R2, N/A) |
| 2024-10-12 | Jared Gooden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Rhys McKee | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:16) |
| 2023-03-25 | Albert Duraev | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Jake Matthews - Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | Francisco Prado | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Philip Rowe | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Michael Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Darrius Flowers | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:37) |
| 2022-12-17 | Matthew Semelsberger | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊 Chidi Njokuani Advantages
⚡ Striking Superiority
+43% advantageElite 63% striking accuracy vs 44% - massive precision advantage with 4.59 SLpM output rate for explosive finishing potential
📏 Reach & Range Control
+7" reachSignificant reach advantage with higher striking output - can control distance and punish Matthews' entries with precise counters
💥 Explosive Finishing
56% finish rateHigh knockout power with recent TKO victory - strong early-round finishing threat when striking exchanges occur
❌ Unfavorable Scenarios
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Distance Management: Utilize reach advantage to keep Matthews at range, punish takedown entries with precise striking, and seek early finish opportunities
🤼 Jake Matthews Advantages
🤼 Grappling Dominance
+62% advantageElite grappling composite (65 vs 40) with 1.46 TD per 15min and 55% submission threat - complete ground control specialist
🏃 Superior Cardio
+25% enduranceHigher cardio score (75 vs 60) with 11:44 average fight duration - excels in championship rounds and extended battles
🎖️ Experience Edge
+14 UFC fightsExtensive UFC experience (22 vs 8 fights) with +111 ELO advantage - proven ability against higher-level competition
❌ Unfavorable Scenarios
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Pressure & Chain Wrestling: Use striking pressure to set up takedown entries, chain attempts together to overcome strong TDD, and control on the ground
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on 100 hypothetical fights
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Welterweight Dynamics
This welterweight clash showcases the timeless striker vs grappler dynamic that has defined some of MMA's most compelling contests. Njokuani brings the psychological edge of a 3-fight win streak and proven knockout ability, evidenced by his 56% finish rate and recent TKO victory over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. His experience as a former Glory Kickboxing veteran translates to elite-level striking precision that has consistently troubled opponents who struggle to close distance effectively.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Njokuani's 43% striking accuracy advantage (63% vs 44%) combined with his significant reach control (7-inch advantage) creates a potent long-range threat that has historically troubled pressure fighters. However, Matthews' superior grappling composite score (65 vs 40) and 111-point ELO advantage reflects his proven ability to neutralize striking specialists through sustained pressure wrestling and superior conditioning over extended periods.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Njokuani's reach advantage and early striking precision could establish dominance or create finish opportunities; the grappling transitions where Matthews' pressure wrestling meets Njokuani's 75% takedown defense; and the championship rounds where Matthews' superior cardio score (75 vs 60) and extensive UFC experience (22 vs 8 fights) become increasingly decisive factors. Matthews' submission threat (0.55 attempts per 15 minutes) provides a constant danger once the fight hits the ground.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Njokuani's path to victory involves leveraging his length and precision to keep Matthews at distance, punishing takedown entries with precise counter-striking, and capitalizing on early finish opportunities when his accuracy and power are at their peak. His 8:12 average fight duration suggests he must find success quickly before conditioning becomes a limiting factor.
Conversely, Matthews must implement a pressure-heavy game plan that negates Njokuani's reach advantage through consistent forward movement and chain wrestling attempts. His 11:44 average fight duration and superior cardio metrics create a clear pathway to late-round dominance. Matthews' 75% of wins coming via decision or submission indicates he's comfortable in extended battles where technique and conditioning overcome early adversity. The key for Matthews is surviving Njokuani's early precision while building cumulative advantages through grappling pressure and pace.
🏁Final Prediction
While Njokuani possesses legitimate one-shot knockout power and significant physical advantages, Matthews' combination of elite grappling, superior conditioning, and proven ability to implement game plans against higher-level competition provides the more reliable path to victory. The 60-40 split reflects both the danger Njokuani presents in early exchanges and Matthews' comprehensive advantages that should accumulate over time. Expect a technically compelling battle where early striking precision meets sustained grappling pressure, with the winner likely emerging through either Njokuani's knockout power in rounds 1-2 or Matthews' grinding dominance in the later stages.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 60.0% | Market: 47.6%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~18.0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Njokuani's striking accuracy - Market doesn't account for level of competition difference
- • Undervalues Matthews' ELO advantage - +111 rating gap indicates superior performance against better fighters
- • Reach advantage misconception - Height/reach less decisive in grappling-heavy matchups
- • Cardio factor underrated - Matthews' superior conditioning and pace could be decisive
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Njokuani
65% of his wins | Knee/elbow threat primary
28% of his wins | Distance management success
8% of his wins | Opportunistic RNC threat
🌟Outcome Distribution - Matthews
57% of his wins | Control time banking
24% of his wins | RNC specialist threat
19% of his wins | Ground-and-pound finish
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Critical Window - Njokuani
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum range control and accuracy
- • Counter-striking: Punish Matthews' aggressive entries
- • Distance management: Utilize 7-inch reach advantage
- • Finish urgency: Find knockout before cardio becomes factor
🎯Building Pressure - Matthews
- • Pressure entries: Close distance and negate reach advantage
- • Chain wrestling: Multiple takedown attempts per round
- • Control time: Bank rounds through top position
- • Late dominance: Cardio advantage increases each round
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Matthews' path to victory
✅Supporting Factors
- • +111 ELO rating advantage
- • Superior grappling composite (65 vs 40)
- • 25% cardio score advantage
- • Extensive UFC experience edge
- • Multiple paths to victory
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Njokuani's knockout power and accuracy
- • 7-inch reach disadvantage
- • Early striking exchanges danger
- • Njokuani's 3-fight win streak
- • One-shot finish potential
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash epitomizes the classic striker vs grappler dynamic with clear statistical advantages on both sides. Njokuani brings elite striking precision (63% vs 44% accuracy) and significant reach control, while Matthews counters with superior ELO rating (+111 points), comprehensive grappling skills, and proven cardio advantages that compound over time.
The betting market appears to overvalue Njokuani's striking advantages while underestimating Matthews' proven ability to neutralize elite strikers through pressure wrestling and cardio. Matthews' 22 UFC fights vs Njokuani's 8 provides substantial experience edge, particularly in championship-level conditioning and fight IQ against high-level competition.
Prediction: Matthews' superior cardio, grappling depth, and ELO advantage provide multiple clear paths to victory that should accumulate over 15 minutes. While Njokuani poses legitimate early finish threats, Matthews' ability to survive early storms and implement grinding pressure makes him the justified favorite. Expect Matthews to weather early striking, implement consistent takedowns, and either bank control time for decision victory or find late finish opportunities as fatigue sets in.