Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira • Heavyweight Division
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 UFC Fights - Derrick Lewis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-11 | Rodrigo Nascimento | W | TKO (punches) (R3, 0:49) |
| 2023-11-04 | Jailton Almeida | L | Decision (unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-29 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 0:33) |
| 2023-02-04 | Serghei Spivac | L | Submission (arm-triangle choke) (R1, 3:05) |
| 2022-07-30 | Sergei Pavlovich | L | TKO (punches) (R1, 0:55) |
UFC & DWCS Record - Tallison Teixeira
All UFC & DWCS bouts (fewer than five total)
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Justin Tafa | W | TKO (knee to the body and elbow) (R1, 0:35) |
| 2024-09-17 | Arthur Lopes | W | KO (punches) (R1, 1:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (88 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 88). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Derrick Lewis Key Advantages
Legendary knockout power with 15 KO/TKO wins - can end the fight with any clean connection
Massive experience advantage having faced elite competition including title challengers
Excellent timing to capitalize on opponent mistakes and pressure situations
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Teixeira's 4" reach and height advantages could keep Lewis at distance where his power is less effective
Teixeira's superior cardio and volume could overwhelm Lewis in longer exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hunt for early knockout opportunities before cardio becomes a factor
Use veteran tricks and timing to get inside Teixeira's reach advantage
🌟 Tallison Teixeira Key Advantages
Significant height, reach, and age advantages - massive physical superiority
Massive striking volume advantage (14.61 vs 2.48 SLpM) with superior conditioning
Superior striking accuracy (60% vs 50%) and defense (60% vs 40%) - more technical fighter
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lewis' legendary power could end the fight instantly if Teixeira gets careless
Limited UFC experience (1 fight) could be a factor against a veteran like Lewis
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach and height to maintain distance, pepper Lewis with volume strikes
Use superior cardio to maintain high pace and break down Lewis over time
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️Experience vs Youth
This heavyweight clash represents the classic veteran vs prospect dynamic that defines many pivotal UFC moments. Lewis brings the wisdom of 29 UFC fights, having faced elite competition including former champions and title challengers. His legendary knockout power has been proven at the highest level time and again. However, at 40 years old, questions about his physical decline and cardio limitations become increasingly relevant against a young, hungry competitor like Teixeira.
📏Physical Mismatch
The physical comparison heavily favors Teixeira with significant advantages in reach (83" vs 79"), height (6'7" vs 6'3"), and most critically, age (25 vs 40). These physical tools allow Teixeira to implement his high-volume striking game while staying at a safe distance. His conditioning advantage (85 cardio score vs 42.6) suggests he can maintain this pace throughout five rounds, while Lewis historically fades after the first round.
⚡Technical Breakdown
Teixeira's technical superiority is evident across multiple metrics: 5.9x higher striking output (14.61 vs 2.48 SLpM), superior accuracy (60% vs 50%), and much better defense (60% vs 40%). His overall technical score (57.0 vs 46.5) reflects a more complete mixed martial artist. The grappling differential (88 vs 65 composite) could also become relevant if Teixeira chooses to test Lewis' notoriously poor takedown defense (52%).
🎯The Power Factor
Despite all statistical disadvantages, Lewis possesses the great equalizer - legendary knockout power. His 78.9% finish rate and reputation as the UFC's all-time knockout leader cannot be quantified by traditional metrics. The "puncher's chance" is very real, especially early in the fight before cardio becomes a factor. Teixeira's limited UFC experience (1 fight) means he hasn't yet faced this level of game-changing power at the sport's highest level.
🏁Final Prediction
While Lewis' power makes him dangerous for brief moments, Teixeira's comprehensive advantages across physical attributes, technique, conditioning, and youth suggest he should control the majority of this fight. The 73-27 split reflects both the legitimate threat Lewis poses and the overwhelming evidence supporting Teixeira's superiority. Expect Teixeira to utilize his reach advantage effectively, maintain a high pace to exploit Lewis' cardio weaknesses, and potentially finish the fight via strikes or even grappling if the opportunity presents itself. Lewis' best chance lies in landing his trademark power shots early before the physical and conditioning disadvantages compound.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 33.3% | Market: 37.0%
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~31.2%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52.4% | Market: 45.5%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Lewis' legendary power - Market doesn't fully account for one-punch KO ability
- • Overvalues Teixeira's limited UFC experience - Only 2 fights against lower-level competition
- • Physical advantages overrated - Height/reach less important in heavyweight with power differential
- • Age factor misconception - Lewis' experience vs youth narrative skewed by cardio assumptions
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Lewis
84% of his wins | Primary path to victory
16% of his wins | Unlikely given cardio limitations
No historical submission wins
🌟Outcome Distribution - Teixeira
100% of his wins so far | Primary weapon
Volume striking path if power fails
BJJ background provides secondary threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Round Fight)
⚡Critical Window - Lewis
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power and explosiveness
- • Early exchanges: 15 career first-round finishes
- • Counter-striking: Capitalize on Teixeira's aggressive entries
- • Urgency factor: Must finish early before cardio becomes limiting
🎯Building Dominance - Teixeira
- • Survive round 1: Weather the early storm and power shots
- • Volume accumulation: Use superior output to build lead
- • Physical advantages: Implement reach and height control
- • Late finish: Increasing success probability each round
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Teixeira's advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant physical advantages
- • Superior cardio and volume
- • Age and athletic prime factor
- • Technical striking superiority
- • Lewis' known cardio limitations
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lewis' legendary knockout power
- • Teixeira's limited elite experience
- • Heavyweight division unpredictability
- • Lewis' veteran UFC knowledge
- • Power puncher's chance factor
🏁Executive Summary
This heavyweight collision represents the classic veteran power-puncher versus athletic young prospect dynamic that has defined many pivotal UFC moments. While Lewis brings legendary knockout ability and 29 fights of elite experience, Teixeira's combination of physical advantages (4" reach, 15 years younger), superior technical metrics (better accuracy, defense, and volume), and massive cardio differential create multiple clear paths to victory.
The betting market appears to properly value Teixeira as the favorite but may be underestimating the degree of his advantages. Our model suggests that while Lewis' power creates genuine knockout threat (28% probability), the overwhelming statistical evidence and physical mismatches favor Teixeira more heavily than market odds indicate. Lewis' historically poor cardio (42.6 vs 85.0 score) in a 5-round main event against a high-volume striker presents significant challenges.
Prediction: Teixeira's youth, conditioning, and technical advantages should allow him to implement his game plan effectively after surviving Lewis' early power shots. The 71-29 prediction reflects both Lewis' legitimate knockout threat and Teixeira's comprehensive advantages across multiple fight domains. Expect Teixeira to utilize distance control, volume striking, and cardio to break down Lewis over time, with finish probability increasing dramatically after round 2.