Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho
Bantamweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Malcolm Wellmaker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Cameron Saaiman | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:59) |
| 2024-08-27 | Adam Bramhald | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:30) |
| 2024-01-20 | Chase Boutwell | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Taylor Moore | W | TKO (R2, 3:45) |
| 2023-06-24 | Justin Hughes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Kris Moutinho
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Antonio Castillo Jr. | W | Submission - Bulldog Choke (R2, 4:36) |
| 2023-11-18 | Jay Pereslley | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:17) |
| 2022-07-29 | Matheus Silva | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 2:25) |
| 2022-03-12 | Guido Cannetti | L | KO/TKO (R1, 2:07) |
| 2021-07-10 | Sean O'Malley | L | KO/TKO (R3, 4:33) |
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on 100 hypothetical fights
🎲Outcome Probabilities (100-Fight Simulation)
🥊Malcolm Wellmaker: 85%
💀Kris Moutinho: 15%
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Malcolm Wellmaker Key Advantages
Nearly doubles Moutinho's accuracy rate with clean shot selection and power finishing ability
5.8 SLpM with devastating 6.72 KD-average in debut KO of Saaiman - one-shot power threat
3" height and 3.5" reach advantage with 100% TDD - can control distance and dictate exchanges
Undefeated with 55% of wins in R1 - fresh off devastating 119-second UFC debut knockout
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If dragged into high-tempo brawl where volume counts more than damage - unknown cardio in rounds 2-3
Tiny top-level sample (1 UFC, 1 DWCS) - unknown in championship rounds against veteran pressure
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain mid-range, stab body-cross-hook, angle out - use reach advantage to avoid pocket wars
Mix occasional level-change to keep honest, finish with flurry once damage accumulates
💀 Kris Moutinho Key Advantages
Relentless pace (4.9 SLpM) and rare gas-tank - can flood output +120 attempts/round
Took 230 sig. strikes from O'Malley and stayed upright - incredible chin and heart proven at elite level
Pressure-forward volume boxer who wins by out-working foes - willingness to eat shots to land
Can force phone-booth war where chin bigger than technique - optics favor volume over power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Early nukes from Wellmaker's power - porous defense (15.5 SApM, 29% strike-defense) makes him vulnerable
Long-range sniping he can't touch - reach disadvantage limits ability to force close quarters
📋 Likely Gameplan
Storm forward behind double jab-cross, flood output +120 attempts/round
Hack calf to slow base, force phone-booth war hoping chin holds and volume matters
💰Odds Analysis: Model vs Market
Line-by-Line Analysis: Model vs Market
| Market (3-rd Bantamweight) | Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Malcolm -1300 Kris +775 | 92.9% 11.4% | 85% 15% | −7.9 pp +3.6 pp | Kris (moderate value) |
| Fight goes distance | Yes +400 No -600 | 20.0% 85.7% | 30% 70% | +10.0 pp −15.7 pp | Yes (Goes Distance) |
| Total O/U 1.5 | Over +130 Under -160 | 43.5% 61.5% | 65% 35% | +21.5 pp −26.5 pp | Over 1.5 rounds |
| Malcolm by Decision | +750 | 11.8% | 20% | +8.2 pp | Malcolm DEC (solid value) |
| Malcolm KO/TKO | -300 | 75.0% | 55% | −20.0 pp | Avoid - overpriced |
| Malcolm R1 Win | -120 | 54.5% | 35% | −19.5 pp | Avoid - heavily overpriced |
| Kris KO/TKO | +4000 | 2.4% | 3% | +0.6 pp | Fair |
| Kris Decision | +1000 | 9.1% | 10% | +0.9 pp | Slight lottery value |
*"Value side" marked when edge is ≥ 5 percentage points (pp) for direct props, or ≥ 10 pp for broad markets (distance, totals).
†Over 1.5 estimated taking our decision rate (30%) plus roughly two-thirds of projected finishes (≈23%) that historically occur after 7:30 of R2 in bantamweight.
Key Takeaways
Market massively overvalues Malcolm's early finish
Why it matters: 61.5% implied probability of R1 finish vs 35% from our model. Moutinho's proven durability suggests he can survive the initial storm.
Betting angle: "Over 1.5 Rounds" (+130) offers 21.5% edge - one of the best opportunities on the card.
Malcolm by Decision severely undervalued (20% MP vs 11.8% IP)
Why it matters: Books anchor to KO power but overlook Malcolm's systematic approach. His 62% accuracy suggests technical control rather than explosive power.
Betting angle: Malcolm Decision (+750) with 8.2 pp edge - excellent value for systematic 3-round breakdown.
Fight going distance offers solid value (30% MP vs 20% IP)
Why it matters: Moutinho's documented durability (14+ minutes vs O'Malley) plus Malcolm's technical approach creates undervalued decision path.
Betting angle: "Goes Distance" (+400) as hedge against overpriced early finish props.
Moneyline has moderate value on Moutinho after vig removal
Why it matters: 3.6 pp edge isn't massive, but the underdog is less overvalued than the favorite.
Betting angle: Use in small parlays or pass for derivative markets with better value.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market is charging a premium for a clean early finish from Malcolm that our model sees only 35% of the time. Best way to attack is buying duration equity - either broadly (Over 1.5 Rounds) or via underappreciated decision angles - while avoiding the inflated "finish-R1" chalk.
Conviction Rating: 8/10
I'm firmly confident because data convergence (accuracy gap, defensive metrics, and ELO differential) all lean the same direction. Competition-strength adjustment shows Malcolm's numbers hold against higher-level opponents while Moutinho's peak was against lower levels inflating his metrics. Stylistic clarity is evident: Malcolm needs space for precision operations - difficult in a large cage against a fighter with 29% defenses absorbing 15.5 SApM.
📊Final Analysis
⚔️Fight Preview
An undefeated prospect fresh off a 119-second debut knockout draws a cult-favourite brawler whose UFC tenure is two brutal TKO losses. In the spacious Atlanta cage, Wellmaker's reach and precision have room to breathe; Moutinho's only route is to drag him into a pace he hasn't yet faced. This represents the classic power vs pressure dynamic that has defined many memorable bantamweight encounters, with Wellmaker's perfect record and physical advantages making him a significant favorite.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking: Wellmaker lands clean (62% acc.) and varied (50% head / 35% body) with legit knock-down power. Moutinho's 33% accuracy vs 15.5 SApM shows he gets hit quintuple his landing clip. The defensive gap is the widest metric differential on the card. Grappling:Neither shoots often; if it happens, Wellmaker's 100% TDD and 0.0 takedown attempts from Moutinho indicate stalemate on paper, edge to stronger athlete. Momentum: Wellmaker 9-0 (5 KOs) with a first-round UFC finish; Moutinho riding two KO losses, last appearance March 2022.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Opening Two Minutes: 55% of Wellmaker's wins come inside R1 – Moutinho must avoid clean right hand and survive the initial power burst. Leg Kicks vs Stance: If Moutinho chews the lead leg he could slow entries and even out speed, potentially neutralizing the reach advantage. Optical Output: Judges may reward Moutinho's swarm if Wellmaker head-hunts and misses; but every landed bomb shifts the round dramatically in the newcomer's favor. The 30-ft cage provides enough space for both fighters to implement their preferred strategies.
🎮Victory Scenarios
Wellmaker Victory Paths (78%): Finds right cross in first exchange, swarms for R1 TKO (55% KO/TKO); or drops Kris twice, cruises 29-27 behind damage (15% decision). His path is straightforward - use reach and power to control distance and land clean shots before Moutinho can establish rhythm. Moutinho Victory Paths (22%): Absorbs storm, out-lands 3-to-1 on volume, edges 29-28 (12% decision); outside chance of attritional late stoppage if Wellmaker gases post blitz (8% KO/TKO). His toughness gives him a puncher's chance if he can weather the early storm.
🏁Final Prediction
In nearly eight of ten run-throughs, Wellmaker's accuracy-and-power combo overwhelms the porous guard of Moutinho before the mid-fight mark. Moutinho's indomitable toughness and pace create a live, but narrow, decision avenue if he survives the onslaught and makes volume matter. High confidence (8/10) - the statistical chasm in defensive metrics and recent form screams mismatch. Unknowns around Wellmaker's cardio keep it from a 9-10, but data-driven edges squarely back the newcomer. Prediction: Wellmaker by TKO in Round 2.