Ange Loosa vs Phil Rowe
Welterweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ange Loosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-13 | Gabriel Bonfim | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-16 | Bryan Battle | L | Could Not Continue (R2, 1:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Rhys McKee | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | AJ Fletcher | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-16 | Mounir Lazzez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Phil Rowe
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | Jake Matthews | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Neil Magny | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Niko Price | W | KO/TKO (R3, 3:26) |
| 2022-02-05 | Jason Witt | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:15) |
| 2021-07-31 | Orion Cosce | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:21) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (58 vs 52). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥷 Ange Loosa Key Advantages
One of the busier welterweights with +53.4% higher output than Rowe - can overwhelm with volume
Strong takedown rate with excellent defense (83% TDD) - can force wrestling scrambles
Calf-kick and body-work game that travels late into fights - can drain opponent's power
Averages 220+ attempts over 15 minutes vs Rowe's ~110 - engine advantage in longer fights
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Absorbs 6.68 SLpM with only 53% striking defense - vulnerable to Rowe's power shots
Getting stuck at jab range eating straight rights - Rowe's 5.5" reach advantage controlling distance
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint-overhand into double-leg, run Rowe to fence, turn the corner for mat-return
Inside-leg kicks to slow stance before entries, body work to drain power late
👑 Phil Rowe Key Advantages
80.5-inch reach with 5.5" advantage - can control distance and punish entries with precision
Knock-down power (0.53 KD/15min) with 100% finish rate in wins - every right cross carries KO intent
Superior 50% striking accuracy - lands half as many but every clean right cross carries KO intent
Slick counter-grappling with dangerous guillotine/triangle chains - deters sloppy takedown entries
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low output (3.65 SLpM) can let rounds slip - may lose on volume and activity
57% takedown defense - can be planted and controlled by persistent wrestlers
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle on outer track, stab jab to set right cross, intercepting knees when needed
Bait shots, sprawl-snap to front-headlock, hunt for submission or stand back up
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
⚔️Loosa Victory Methods
🥊Rowe Victory Methods
💰Betting Odds & Prop Bets
Moneyline
Fight Duration
Method Props
📊Model vs Market Odds Analysis
Executive Summary
Our model identifies multiple value opportunities in this welterweight clash. While the market correctly favors Loosa's volume and pressure style, significant inefficiencies exist in method-specific props and round betting. The market appears to undervalue Rowe's knockout potential while overestimating decision probability, creating several high-value betting opportunities across different outcome scenarios.
| Market (Welterweight) | Real Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Loosa -132 Rowe +112 | 56.9% 47.2% | 62% 38% | +5.1 pp −9.2 pp | Loosa VALUE |
| Rowe by KO/TKO | +600 | 14.3% | 28% | +13.7 pp | MASSIVE VALUE |
| Rowe Win Inside Distance | +350 | 22.2% | 30% | +7.8 pp | STRONG VALUE |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -275 | 73.3% | 69% | −4.3 pp | Slight fade |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +206 | 32.7% | 31% | −1.7 pp | Fair pricing |
| Goes to Decision (Yes) | -250 | 71.4% | 64% | −7.4 pp | Avoid |
| Rowe by Decision | +300 | 25.0% | 8% | −17.0 pp | Severely overpriced |
| Loosa by Decision | +100 | 50.0% | 48% | −2.0 pp | Fair pricing |
"Value side" is flagged when the edge ≥ 5 percentage-points (pp) for outrights/props, or ≥ 10 pp for broad markets.
†IP = Implied Probability from real odds; MP = Model Probability
Key Take-aways
Exceptional value on Rowe KO/TKO method at +600
Why it matters: Market severely undervalues Rowe's finishing ability by 13.7 percentage points despite his demonstrated power advantage.
Betting angle: Our model projects 28% knockout probability vs market's 14.3%, creating massive value on his primary win condition.
Solid value on Loosa moneyline despite being favored
Why it matters: Market undervalues Loosa's pressure advantage and superior conditioning by 5.1 percentage points.
Betting angle: Loosa's volume striking and wrestling control create multiple victory paths the market isn't fully pricing.
Strong value on Rowe "Win Inside Distance" at +350
Why it matters: Market implies 22.2% but our model sees 30% probability for early finish, creating 7.8pp edge.
Betting angle: Rowe's knockout power combined with Loosa's defensive vulnerabilities supports higher finish probability.
Market overvalues decision outcomes
Why it matters: "Goes to Decision" at -250 and "Rowe by Decision" at +300 both offer negative value.
Betting angle: Avoid decision props as market overestimates grind-out scenarios relative to finish potential.
Round total props fairly priced
Why it matters: Over/Under 2.5 rounds shows minimal edge, suggesting efficient market pricing.
Betting angle: Focus on method-specific props where clearer value exists rather than duration bets.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market correctly identifies Loosa as the favorite but significantly misprices method-specific outcomes. While Loosa's pressure, volume, and wrestling create a clear path to victory, the market dramatically undervalues Rowe's knockout threat despite his demonstrated finishing ability and reach advantages. This creates a rare scenario where value exists on both the favorite's outright and the underdog's primary win method.
Conviction Rating: 7/10
High confidence in value identification based on clear stylistic analysis and recent performance data. Loosa's volume advantage and superior conditioning support his favoritism, but the market's substantial undervaluation of Rowe's knockout props (+600 for KO/TKO method) represents exceptional value. The combination play of Loosa moneyline with Rowe KO/TKO method covers 90% of probable outcomes while exploiting market inefficiencies on both sides of the stylistic clash.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚔️Fight Preview
This welterweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic contrast between Loosa's relentless pressure kickboxing and Rowe's explosive boxing power. The Democratic Republic of Congo native brings a pure volume approach with heavy leg kicks and grinding pressure, while Brooklyn's Rowe relies on his significant reach advantage and one-shot knockout ability. The 30-foot octagon geometry amplifies Rowe's frame and reach but provides space for Loosa's takedown entries and pressure sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking: Loosa's 5.6 strikes landed per minute doubles Rowe's 3.65 output, but accuracy numbers are remarkably close (45% vs 50%). The key differential lies in volume and pressure sustainability. Loosa targets legs heavily (20% of strikes), while Rowe focuses on crisp boxing fundamentals with knockout intent.Physical Advantages: Rowe's 6.5-inch reach advantage (80.5" vs 74") and 5-inch height edge create significant range control opportunities. Cardio & Pace: Loosa has consistently shown three-round conditioning, while Rowe tends to fade after mid-round 2 when forced into high-pace exchanges.
⚡Critical Battle Areas
Range Management: Rowe's path to victory requires maintaining distance where his boxing shines, while Loosa must close gaps and initiate clinch work to neutralize the reach advantage. Early Knockout Window: Rowe's best chances come in the first 6-8 minutes before Loosa's volume and leg kicks accumulate damage. Takedown Impact: Loosa's 38% takedown accuracy provides control opportunities that could disrupt Rowe's rhythm and create ground control time for round-winning sequences.
💪Performance Trajectories & Momentum
Loosa enters coming off tough losses but demonstrated heart and competitiveness in both encounters, with his last victory over McKee showcasing his ability to weather early adversity and dominate late rounds. Rowe's concerning 0-2 slide includes decision losses to volume strikers (Magny, Matthews) who employed the exact blueprint Loosa specializes in. The pattern of Rowe struggling against sustained pressure and high-output opponents directly favors Loosa's strategic approach and conditioning advantages.
🎮Fight Simulation Analysis
In a theoretical 100-fight simulation, Loosa's pressure and volume approach overwhelms Rowe's defensive game in 62 scenarios. Loosa wins primarily through decision (48 instances) via sustained output and leg kick accumulation, with occasional knockout victories (12) from volume accumulation and rare submission finishes (2). Rowe's 38 victories come predominantly through knockout power (28 scenarios) in the early rounds, with minimal decision victories (8) requiring perfect range management and rare submission opportunities (2).
🏁Final Prediction
Loosa's superior conditioning, volume output, and proven ability against volume strikers create clear advantages that should materialize in the majority of scenarios. While Rowe retains dangerous early knockout equity through his reach and power advantages, his recent struggles against sustained pressure and the accumulative effect of Loosa's leg kicks favor the Congolese veteran. Expect Loosa to win by decision (48% probability) through relentless pressure, leg kick accumulation, and superior three-round conditioning, with the 62-38 split reflecting high confidence in the volume vs. precision dynamic favoring consistent pressure over explosive bursts.