Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee
UFC Welterweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
🤼 Wrestling Specialist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
🥊 Volume Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Michael Chiesa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Max Griffin | W | Submission (R3, 1:56) |
| 2024-08-03 | Tony Ferguson | W | Submission (R1, 3:44) |
| 2023-07-29 | Kevin Holland | L | Submission (R1, 2:39) |
| 2021-11-20 | Sean Brady | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-07 | Vicente Luque | L | Submission (R1, 3:25) |
Last 5 Fights - Court McGee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-05 | Tim Means | W | Submission (R1, 3:19) |
| 2024-04-06 | Alex Morono | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Matt Brown | L | KO/TKO (R1, 4:09) |
| 2022-06-18 | Jeremiah Wells | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:34) |
| 2022-01-15 | Ramiz Brahimaj | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🤼 Michael Chiesa Key Advantages
Elite takedown rate at 49% accuracy - attempts ~6 takedowns every 15 minutes and converts half
Elite submission threat with 13 of 20 wins by choke - immediately chains to back exposure
Superior defensive efficiency - absorbs minimal damage per minute compared to McGee
Back-to-back RNC wins in 2024 after rough 2023 - showing excellent current form
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Virtually no knockout threat (0 career KOs) - low comeback equity if losing minutes
62% TDD is merely average - prolonged scrambles could sap his gas tank
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance behind pawing jab, shoot high-crotch to back-takes
Suffocate from half-guard and hunt RNC/D'Arce - accept winning minutes on mat
🥊 Court McGee Key Advantages
Far higher strike output (4.60 vs 1.81 SLpM) with positive strike differential (+1.0)
Strong 70% takedown defense plus underrated front-head-lock series
25-minute cardio history - has topped 300 sig-strike attempts multiple times
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Age 40 and coming off two KO losses in last four - chin no longer granite
Only 26% offensive TD accuracy - if can't mix wrestling, volume drops significantly
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stay mobile, attack legs & body to slow entries, sprawl/whizzer effectively
Score with jab-cross-low-kick combinations and stack clinch elbows
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
🤼Chiesa Victory Methods
🥊McGee Victory Methods
💰Betting Odds & Prop Bets
Moneyline
Fight Duration
Method Props
📊Model vs Market Odds Analysis
Executive Summary
Our model identifies significant value opportunities in this welterweight clash. The market is underestimating Chiesa's submission advantage while overvaluing McGee's decision possibilities. Multiple method and duration props also show considerable market inefficiencies.
| Market (Welterweight) | Real Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chiesa -350 McGee +285 | 77.8% 26.0% | 72% 28% | -5.8 pp +2.0 pp | Market aligned |
| Chiesa by Submission | +200 | 33.3% | 48.6% | +15.3 pp | STRONG VALUE |
| Fight Doesn't Go Distance | +120 | 45.5% | 48.0% | +2.5 pp | VALUE |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +128 | 43.9% | 35.0% | -8.9 pp | Slight value on Over |
| Chiesa R1 Win | +400 | 20.0% | 24.0% | +4.0 pp | Moderate value |
| McGee by Decision | +450 | 18.2% | 20.0% | +1.8 pp | Slight value |
| Goes to Decision | -150 | 60.0% | 52.0% | -8.0 pp | Avoid |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -165 | 62.3% | 65.0% | +2.7 pp | Small edge, low value |
"Value side" is flagged when the edge ≥ 2.5 percentage-points (pp) for props, or ≥ 5 pp for broad markets.
†IP = Implied Probability from real odds; MP = Model Probability
Key Takeaways
Massive value on Chiesa by submission at +200
Why it matters: Market undervalues Chiesa's submission threat against McGee's declining defensive metrics by 15.3 percentage points.
Betting angle: Our model shows Chiesa should be priced closer to +110, making +200 an exceptional value opportunity.
Fight doesn't go distance at +120 offers value
Why it matters: Our model gives this outcome 48% probability vs market's 45.5%, creating a 2.5pp edge.
Betting angle: Chiesa's elite back-take game and McGee's defensive vulnerabilities make early finish probable.
Chiesa R1 Win at +400 presents moderate value
Why it matters: Market implies 20% probability while our model suggests 24%, a 4pp edge.
Betting angle: Chiesa's recent finishes in R1 and R3 against Ferguson and Griffin demonstrate his early finishing capability.
Market overvalues decision scenarios
Why it matters: "Goes to Decision" at -150 is severely overpriced by the market given Chiesa's finishing history.
Betting angle: Avoid long duration bets that contradict both fighters' tendencies and styles.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market is significantly undervaluing Chiesa's complete skill set against a declining McGee. While McGee retains dangerous cardio and striking volume, his wrestling defensive vulnerabilities and age create multiple clear advantages that the market hasn't fully priced in.
Conviction Rating: 7/10
High confidence based on clear stylistic advantages and recent performance trends. Chiesa has evolved his grappling pressure and back-take game during his recent win streak, while McGee's declining defensive metrics (1 win in last 4) create obvious exploit points. The +200 for submission victory represents exceptional value given Chiesa's control-heavy style and superior finishing ability in a three-round format.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Fight Preview
This welterweight clash presents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic with significant implications for both careers. Chiesa enters with a 2-fight win streak and refined pressure game, while McGee seeks to rebuild momentum after a troubled recent trajectory (1 win in last 4). The veteran's complete MMA skill set meets the explosive but increasingly vulnerable grappling style of the former title contender in a high-stakes encounter.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking: McGee throws nearly five significant strikes per minute but connects at just 37%, yet his calf-kick volume and body work consistently disrupts opponent rhythm. Chiesa's 1.81 SLpM represents one of the lowest among ranked welterweights - he strikes mainly to disguise level-changes rather than seek damage.Wrestling & Grappling: Chiesa attempts ~6 takedowns every 15 minutes and converts half, immediately chaining to back exposure with 13 of 20 wins by choke. McGee's 70% TDD can stuff singles, but he scrambles to knees and exposes the neck - a potentially fatal habit against Chiesa's submission arsenal.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
First Successful Takedown: Swing stat reveals when Chiesa lands a takedown in R1, he wins 78% of bouts; when he doesn't, he's 1-4. Leg-Kick Volume: McGee must reach ~30 leg strikes to significantly impair Chiesa's level-changes and create openings for his boxing. Front-Head-Lock Scrambles:If McGee stuffs and immediately looks to snap-down, he can burn clock and pile volume while avoiding dangerous submission positions.
💪Momentum & Durability
The momentum heavily favors Chiesa, who enters on a 2-fight win streak with dominant grappling performances against quality opposition. His durability record is solid - only 1 KO/TKO loss in 20 UFC fights, coming against elite striker Vicente Luque. Conversely, McGee's declining trajectory shows 2 KO/TKO losses in his last 4 fights, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that align perfectly with Chiesa's grappling pressure style.
🎮Hypothetical Simulation
In a theoretical 100-fight simulation, Chiesa controls fight location 72 times through pressure wrestling and positional control. He secures submissions in 35 scenarios through opportunistic grappling, accumulates decisions in 32 instances via sustained output and control time, and achieves some attrition TKOs in 5 exchanges. McGee's 28 victories come almost exclusively through grinding decisions (20 scenarios), with rare opportunistic submissions (6) and TKO finishes (2) requiring heavy knockdown rounds. This breakdown reflects Chiesa's multiple pathways versus McGee's volume-dependent approach.
🏁Final Prediction
Chiesa's superior grappling credentials, pressure game, and exploitation of McGee's declining defensive metrics should neutralize the veteran's explosive volume bursts in most scenarios. While McGee retains dangerous cardio and late volume equity, his vulnerability to sustained wrestling and grappling creates clear advantages for the former title contender. Expect Chiesa to win by submission (35% probability) through superior back-take control and choking opportunities, with the 72-28 split reflecting high confidencein measurable stylistic and performance advantages favoring the technical control approach.