Cody Durden vs Jose Ochoa
Flyweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
UFC Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Cody Durden
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Joshua Van | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Matt Schnell | W | Submission (R2, 0:29) |
| 2024-07-20 | Bruno Silva | L | KO/TKO (R2, 2:58) |
| 2023-12-16 | Tagir Ulanbekov | L | Submission (R2, 4:25) |
| 2023-08-05 | Jake Hadley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Jose Ochoa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Lone'er Kavanagh | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-15 | Alex Rodriguez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:15) |
| 2023-11-18 | Carlos Mendez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:45) |
| 2023-08-26 | Luis Santos | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:22) |
| 2023-05-12 | Miguel Torres | W | Submission (R1, 4:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (76 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Cody Durden Key Advantages
Significant experience advantage with 12 UFC fights vs Ochoa's 1 UFC appearance
Strong takedown game vs opponent with no takedown attempts in UFC
🚀 Jose Ochoa Key Advantages
Superior defensive awareness with 60% striking defense vs 49%
Exceptional finishing ability with 6 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🤼 Cody Durden Key Advantages
Elite takedown volume at 48% accuracy - lands one completed takedown every 3½ minutes of cage time
Excellent 73% takedown defense keeps him in top position battles when grounded
Twelve-fight UFC résumé (6-6) against Ochoa's single appearance - massive experience edge
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Negative sig-strike differential (3.52 LpM vs 4.29 ApM) with only 49% striking defense
Sub-losses in 3 of 7 defeats - neck always exposed when he shoots for takedowns
📋 Likely Gameplan
Punch his way inside, chain double- to single-legs, mat-return until openings for RNC
If shots fail, clinch-ride to stall striking and find ground-elbow opportunities
🚀 Jose Ochoa Key Advantages
Seven-year youth edge and fewer hard miles - only one UFC bout vs Durden's 12-fight wear
Southpaw kick-boxing base with quick straights and calf-kicks from long stance
Big-cage movement could frustrate single-shot entries and create space for striking
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Unproven defensive wrestling - no takedowns faced in UFC debut against high-volume wrestler
Limited five-minute cardio data - unknown performance in deep R2-R3 exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle, jab-calf-kick, sprawl on first 2-3 shots, keep centre of cage
Punish naked level-changes with uppercut or knee; accelerate volume late if upright
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on 100 hypothetical fights
📊Stylistic & Technical Match-up
| Category | Cody Durden | Jose Ochoa | Who Benefits? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preferred Range | Wrestling chains, top control, close-quarters pressure | Open space boxing, outside kicking, maintain distance | Depends on early takedown success; Ochoa needs clean entries |
| Output & Accuracy | 3.52 SLpM on 46% accuracy, absorbs 4.29 SApM – defense vulnerable | Limited UFC data, showed calm southpaw stance vs Kavanagh | Ochoa's clean striking vs Durden's defensive lapses could be key |
| Takedowns | High-volume wrestler: 48% TD accuracy, chains attempts | Completely untested – zero takedown attempts faced in UFC | Massive unknown; Durden's wrestling could expose major holes |
| Submission Danger | 6 career subs including ninja choke vs Schnell – opportunistic finisher | Unknown ground game, no submission attempts shown | Durden holds all submission advantages |
| Power / Finishing | Proven finisher: 25% KO rate, 23% submission rate | Unknown finishing ability – 0 UFC stoppages | Durden has proven finishing ability across all methods |
| Recent Trajectory | 3-3 in last 6 but losses to elite competition (Van, Silva, Ulanbekov) | 0-1 UFC debut loss to Kavanagh, limited high-level experience | 12x experience gap favors Durden's adaptability |
🔧Critical Stylistic Levers
🤼First Takedown Attempt Impact
Durden's opening level-change sets the tone entirely. Success builds confidence and control time; failure gives Ochoa open-space striking where his unknown skills could flourish.
📏Experience Differential in Big Cage
The 30-foot cage provides escape routes for Ochoa but also creates pressure for inexperienced fighters. Durden's 12 UFC fights provide crucial Octagon IQ that could overwhelm a nervous newcomer.
⚡Durden's Defensive Vulnerability
Absorbing 4.29 strikes per minute shows defensive holes that Ochoa could exploit. If Ochoa lands clean early, he could hurt Durden before the wrestling takes over.
🎪Submission Threat Timing
Durden's guillotine series becomes more dangerous as rounds progress and Ochoa tires. The ninja choke finish vs Schnell shows his ability to capitalize on scrambles.
🎲Outcome Probabilities (100-Fight Simulation)
🏆Cody Durden: 72%
🎯Jose Ochoa: 28%
How 100 Fights Look: 72 times Durden secures early takedowns, accumulates control time, and either submits Ochoa via guillotine/ninja choke (25), grinds out positional decisions (35), or lands ground-and-pound TKOs (12). 28 times Ochoa stuffs initial shots, finds his striking rhythm in open space, either outpointing the veteran (18) or capitalizing on Durden's defensive gaps for late KO/TKO (7), with rare submission reversals (3).
💰Odds Analysis: Model vs Market
Model-Aligned Betting Lines
Model vs Market (Value Spots)
| Market | Our Odds | Market Odds | Implied Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Durden -260 / Ochoa +220 | Ochoa -175 / Durden +150 | MASSIVE value on Durden - market completely backwards |
| Fight goes to decision | -140 (58%) | TBD (~55%) | Model shows higher decision rate than typical finish markets |
| Over 2.5 rds | -180 (64%) | TBD (~60%) | Durden's submission threat balanced by decision tendency |
| Durden by Decision | +180 (35%) | +275 (~27%) | Significant value on Durden grinding out a win |
| Durden by Submission | +300 (25%) | +500 (~17%) | HUGE VALUE - submission threat severely underpriced |
| Ochoa Decision | +450 (18%) | +225 (~31%) | Market overvalues Ochoa's path to decision victory |
Line-by-Line Model vs Market Analysis
| Market (3-round Flyweight) | Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ochoa -175 Durden +150 | 63.6% 40.0% | 28% 72% | −35.6 pp +32.0 pp | DURDEN MASSIVE VALUE |
| Fight goes distance | Yes -140 No +110 | 58.3% 47.6% | 58% 42% | −0.3 pp −5.6 pp | Yes (Decision) value |
| Total O/U 2.5 | Over -180 Under +150 | 64.3% 40.0% | 64% 36% | −0.3 pp −4.0 pp | Over 2.5 slight value |
| Durden by Points | +275 | 26.7% | 35% | +8.3 pp | VALUE BET |
| Durden Submission | +500 | 16.7% | 25% | +8.3 pp | HUGE VALUE |
| Durden KO/TKO | +650 | 13.3% | 12% | −1.3 pp | Fair |
| Ochoa by Points | +225 | 30.8% | 18% | −12.8 pp | OVERVALUED – FADE |
| Ochoa KO/TKO | +300 | 25.0% | 7% | −18.0 pp | SEVERELY OVERVALUED |
| Ochoa Submission | +2500 | 3.9% | 3% | −0.9 pp | Fair |
*"Value side" is flagged when the edge ≥ 5 percentage-points (pp) for outrights/props, or ≥ 10 pp for broad markets.
†IP = Implied Probability from odds; MP = Model Probability
Key Take-aways
Market has this fight completely backwards
Why it matters: Durden at +150 represents one of the largest value discrepancies seen - 32 percentage point edge.
Betting angle: Maximum confidence bet on Durden ML - market severely undervalues proven veteran vs unknown quantity.
Durden submission threat severely underpriced (+500 vs +300 model)
Why it matters: 6 career submissions including ninja choke vs Schnell shows opportunistic finishing ability.
Betting angle: Durden by Submission at +500 offers huge value - 8.3 percentage point edge.
Market overvalues unknown fighter with mystique premium
Why it matters: Ochoa's single UFC fight provides insufficient data for -175 favorite status.
Betting angle: Fade all Ochoa method props - market pricing speculation over proven ability.
Experience differential creates multiple value opportunities
Why it matters: 12x UFC experience gap plus wrestling mismatch creates predictable outcome paths.
Betting angle: Durden Decision and Over 2.5 rounds both offer solid secondary value.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market is pricing an extreme recency bias scenario where Durden's recent losses to elite competition overshadow his proven ability against lesser opposition. Meanwhile, Ochoa's unknown quantity receives a mystique premium that completely ignores the massive experience and stylistic advantages Durden possesses.
Conviction Rating: 8/10
Extreme confidence because this represents a clear market inefficiency. Durden's wrestling volume and submission threat against a completely untested wrestler creates a stylistic mismatch the market has completely mispriced. The 32-point edge on Durden ML represents the single largest value opportunity on the entire card, while his finishing props offer additional high-ROI opportunities for smaller stakes.