Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos
UFC Bantamweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
👑 Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
🥋 BJJ Specialist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Cody Garbrandt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Submission (R2, 4:02) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brian Kelleher | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-04 | Trevin Jones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-11 | Kai Kara-France | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:21) |
| 2021-05-22 | Rob Font | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Raoni Barcelos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Payton Talbott | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Cristian Quinonez | W | Submission (R3, 2:04) |
| 2023-08-05 | Kyler Phillips | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | KO/TKO (R1, 4:40) |
| 2022-10-01 | Trevin Jones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 78). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💥 Cody Garbrandt Key Advantages
Elite knockout power with 11 of 14 professional wins by KO/TKO - constant finishing threat
Excellent 80% takedown defense keeps fight where he wants it - in striking range
Four-year youth edge (33 vs 37) with former UFC bantamweight champion experience and faster hand speed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pocket brawls where chin has betrayed him - 4 KO losses since 2017 when trading in close
Being backed to fence and volume-outworked late by opponents with superior cardio
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle, pick spots for counter cross-hook, sprawl & brawl to maintain striking advantage
Maybe mix surprise double-leg to bank respect and keep Barcelos guessing
📊 Raoni Barcelos Key Advantages
Far higher work-rate (5.11 SLpM vs 2.98) at better accuracy (53% vs 41%) - pressure advantage
Complete skill set - 2.46 TDs/15min plus slick BJJ (0.69 subs/15) provides multiple pathways to victory
Exceptional cardio averaging 91 significant strikes landed in wins over 15 minutes - late round advantage
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Forced to trade in boxing range with the quicker puncher where Garbrandt's power becomes dangerous
Early thunder before he can start layering takedowns/feints - Garbrandt's optimal KO window
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pressure behind jab-low-kick combos, change levels to mat return, establish volume advantage
Drain body with clinch knees, chase back-takes in scrambles for submission opportunities
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
💥Garbrandt Victory Methods
🤼Barcelos Victory Methods
💰Betting Odds & Prop Bets
Moneyline
Fight Duration
Method Props
📊Model vs Market Odds Analysis
Executive Summary
Our model identifies significant value opportunities in this bantamweight clash. The market is offering substantial value on Barcelos at -180, as our model suggests he should be priced closer to -257. Multiple method and duration props also show considerable market inefficiencies.
| Market (Bantamweight) | Real Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Barcelos -180 Garbrandt +155 | 64.3% 39.2% | 72% 28% | +7.7 pp −11.2 pp | Barcelos STRONG VALUE |
| Barcelos by Decision | +175 | 36.4% | 45% | +8.6 pp | STRONG VALUE |
| Fight goes distance | Yes -105 No -125 | 51.2% 55.6% | 48% 52% | −3.2 pp −3.6 pp | Slight fade both |
| Total O/U 2.5 | Over -135 Under +105 | 57.4% 48.8% | 52% 48% | −5.4 pp −0.8 pp | Under slight value |
| Barcelos by Submission | +425 | 19.0% | 18% | −1.0 pp | Fair pricing |
| Garbrandt by KO/TKO | +285 | 26.0% | 25% | −1.0 pp | Fair pricing |
| Barcelos by KO/TKO | +400 | 20.0% | 9% | −11.0 pp | Severely overpriced |
| Garbrandt by Decision | +425 | 19.0% | 3% | −16.0 pp | Avoid completely |
"Value side" is flagged when the edge ≥ 5 percentage-points (pp) for outrights/props, or ≥ 10 pp for broad markets.
†IP = Implied Probability from real odds; MP = Model Probability
Key Take-aways
Massive value on Barcelos moneyline at -180
Why it matters: Market undervalues Barcelos's grappling advantage against Garbrandt's declining defensive metrics by 7.7 percentage points.
Betting angle: Our model shows Barcelos should be -257, making -180 an exceptional value opportunity.
Barcelos by Decision at +175 offers strong value
Why it matters: Our model gives this outcome 45% probability vs market's 36.4%, creating an 8.6pp edge.
Betting angle: Barcelos's pressure, grappling control, and superior cardio make decision victory highly likely.
Market overvalues unlikely finishing scenarios
Why it matters: Barcelos KO/TKO (+400) and Garbrandt Decision (+425) are severely overpriced by the market.
Betting angle: Avoid these low-probability outcomes that contradict both fighters' tendencies and styles.
Duration props show mixed value
Why it matters: Market expects more early finishes than our model, with slight value on Under 2.5 rounds.
Betting angle: Garbrandt's early KO window creates some finish equity, but Barcelos's durability limits major value.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market is significantly undervaluing Barcelos's complete skill set against a declining Garbrandt. While Garbrandt retains dangerous early power, his defensive vulnerabilities and Barcelos's improved grappling create multiple clear advantages that the market hasn't fully priced in.
Conviction Rating: 8/10
High confidence based on clear stylistic advantages and recent performance trends. Barcelos has evolved his pressure game and grappling over his recent win streak, while Garbrandt's declining defensive metrics (5 losses in last 6) create obvious exploit points. The +175 for decision victory represents exceptional value given Barcelos's control-heavy style and superior conditioning in a three-round format.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Fight Preview
This bantamweight clash presents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic with significant implications for both careers. Barcelos enters with a 2-fight win streak and refined pressure game, while Garbrandt seeks to rebuild momentum after a troubled recent run (5 losses in last 6). The Brazilian's complete MMA skill set meets the former champion's explosive but increasingly vulnerable striking style in a high-stakes encounter.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking: Garbrandt's power remains elite with 1.13 knockdowns per fight, but his 41% accuracy and poor defensive metrics (60% defense, 3.76 strikes absorbed/minute) create clear vulnerabilities. Barcelos doubles his output (5.11 vs 2.98 strikes/minute) with superior accuracy (53% vs 41%) while maintaining identical defensive numbers. Grappling: Barcelos's 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and 37% accuracy provide multiple control opportunities against Garbrandt's 80% takedown defense. The Brazilian's 0.69 submission attempts per 15 minutes add another finishing dimension completely absent from Garbrandt's game.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
Three critical factors determine this fight: Early exchanges (0-5 minutes)—Garbrandt's primary KO window where his counter-striking is most dangerous before cardio and leg damage accumulate; Pressure and Wrestling—Barcelos must implement his 5+ strike per minute pace while chaining takedown attempts to disrupt Garbrandt's rhythm; and Cage control—the large 30-foot octagon favors Barcelos's wrestling entries and pressure style while giving Garbrandt space to reset and counter.
💪Momentum & Durability
The momentum heavily favors Barcelos, who enters on a 2-fight win streak with dominant grappling performances against quality opposition. His durability record is exceptional—only one KO loss in 24 pro fights, coming against elite athlete Umar Nurmagomedov. Conversely, Garbrandt's declining trajectory shows 4 KO/TKO losses and 1 submission defeat in his last 6 fights, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that align perfectly with Barcelos's pressure-heavy style.
🎮Hypothetical Simulation
In a theoretical 100-fight simulation, Barcelos controls fight location 72 times through pressure wrestling and volume striking. He banks decisions in 45 scenarios via sustained output and control time, secures submissions in 18 exchanges through opportunistic grappling, and accumulates attritional TKOs in 9 instances. Garbrandt's 28 victories come almost exclusively through early KO power (25 scenarios), with rare decision wins (3) requiring knockdown-heavy rounds. This breakdown reflects Barcelos's multiple pathways versus Garbrandt's power-dependent approach.
🏁Final Prediction
Barcelos's superior conditioning, pressure game, and exploitation of Garbrandt's declining defensive metrics should neutralize the former champion's explosive bursts in most scenarios. While Garbrandt retains dangerous early knockout equity, his vulnerability to sustained pressure and grappling creates clear advantages for the Brazilian veteran. Expect Barcelos to win by decision (45% probability) through superior volume, wrestling control, and three-round conditioning, with the 72-28 split reflecting high confidencein measurable stylistic and performance advantages favoring the pressure-heavy approach.