Cody Brundage vs Mansur Abdul-Malik
Middleweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Cody Brundage
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Julian Marquez | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:45) |
| 2024-07-13 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | NC | Could Not Continue (R1, 0:37) |
| 2024-04-13 | Bo Nickal | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
| 2023-12-02 | Zach Reese | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:49) |
| 2023-09-23 | Jacob Malkoun | W | DQ (R1, 4:15) |
Last 5 Fights - Mansur Abdul-Malik
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Nick Klein | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:24) |
| 2024-11-09 | Dusko Todorovic | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:44) |
| 2024-05-18 | Cameron Washington | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:23) |
| 2023-11-11 | Alex Rodriguez | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:12) |
| 2023-08-05 | Mike Thompson | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:55) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 48). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🤼 Cody Brundage Key Advantages
Elite collegiate wrestling background with 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes - proven ability to control geography
Dangerous front-headlock and guillotine series - proven submission threat against elite competition
Massive experience advantage - 11 UFC fights vs Abdul-Malik's 2, providing crucial Octagon wisdom
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Striking defense just 43% - absorbs more than he lands, vulnerable to counter-punchers
Has been submitted twice and stopped once by strikes in last 10 fights - finishing vulnerability
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain single-leg → double-leg, ride half-guard, hunt guillotine/RNC for submission finish
Punch his entries with overhand-right to level-change disguise takedown attempts
💥 Mansur Abdul-Malik Key Advantages
Perfect 100% UFC finish rate, both by KO/TKO with average bout lasting only 1.5 rounds
Crisp pocket boxing with quick pull-counter right that finished Todorović in R1 - proven knockout artist
Seven-year youth advantage (23 vs 30) with large 30-ft cage to work in space and utilize footwork
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Defensive grappling remains untested - no opponent has shot on him yet in UFC competition
Cardio unknown beyond seven minutes - longest UFC fight was 2:44 of R1
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stay mid-range, jab-low-kick-cross pattern to maintain distance and control striking exchanges
Punish level-changes with knee/uppercut, force resets instead of clinch grappling exchanges
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
🤼Brundage Victory Methods
💥Abdul-Malik Victory Methods
💰Betting Odds & Prop Bets
Moneyline
Fight Duration
Method Props
📊Model vs Market Odds Analysis
Executive Summary
Our model shows strong alignment with the market on the fight outcome but identifies several value opportunities in specific betting markets, particularly around fight duration and method props.
| Market (Middleweight) | Odds | IP | MP | Edge (MP-IP) | Value Side? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Abdul-Malik -550 Brundage +425 | 84.6% 19.1% | 85% 15% | +0.4 pp −4.1 pp | Fair pricing |
| Fight goes distance | Yes +400 No -600 | 20.0% 85.7% | 20% 80% | 0.0 pp −5.7 pp | Yes (Decision) value |
| Total O/U 1.5 | Over +155 Under -180 | 39.2% 64.3% | 35% 65% | −4.2 pp +0.7 pp | Fair pricing |
| Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO | -300 | 75.0% | 70% | −5.0 pp | Overpriced – fade |
| Abdul-Malik Wins Inside Dist. NO | +600 | 14.3% | 25% | +10.7 pp | MAJOR VALUE |
| Brundage by Submission | +800 | 11.1% | 7% | −4.1 pp | Slight fade |
| Brundage Round 1 | +650 | 13.3% | 4% | −9.3 pp | Avoid (overvalued) |
"Value side" is flagged when the edge ≥ 5 percentage-points (pp) for outrights/props, or ≥ 10 pp for broad markets.
†IP = Implied Probability from odds; MP = Model Probability
Key Take-aways
Market undervalues decision outcome at massive +400 odds
Why it matters: Brundage's wrestling background and veteran durability create more paths to survival than the 20% implied probability suggests.
Betting angle: "Fight Goes to Decision" (+400) offers significant value despite Abdul-Malik's finishing power.
Biggest edge: Abdul-Malik "Wins Inside Distance" NO (+600)
Why it matters: Market expects 85.7% early finish but our model shows 75%, creating a massive 10.7pp edge.
Betting angle: This covers all Brundage wins plus any Abdul-Malik decision victory - substantial value opportunity.
Market overconfident in Abdul-Malik early knockout
Why it matters: 75% implied probability for KO/TKO (-300) exceeds our 70% model, suggesting overvalued finishing props.
Betting angle: Avoid Abdul-Malik KO props; focus on duration and alternative outcomes instead.
Brundage Round 1 upset heavily overvalued by market
Why it matters: 13.3% implied probability vastly exceeds our 4% model for early Brundage finish.
Betting angle: Avoid any Brundage early finish props - market giving false hope to veteran story.
Bottom Line Analysis
The market is pricing an extreme early finish scenario (80% before decision) that overestimates Abdul-Malik's knockout inevitability against a durable veteran. While Abdul-Malik should win, the best value lies in challenging the market's certainty about how quickly it happens.
Conviction Rating: 8/10
High confidence because the market shows clear inefficiencies in duration-related props. Abdul-Malik's 2-fight UFC sample creates recency bias, while Brundage's 11-fight veteran status provides survival equity that books are undervaluing. The stylistic matchup favors Abdul-Malik overall, but his defensive wrestling remains completely untested, creating uncertainty that manifests as betting value.
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Fight Preview
This middleweight clash features a classic wrestler vs KO-artist duel with a significant experience gap. Brundage's only safe lane to victory is repeated takedowns and submission attempts, while Abdul-Malik wants a clean boxing match in the large 30-foot cage. The bout represents a crucial test for both fighters: Brundage must prove his wrestling can neutralize elite striking, while Abdul-Malik faces his first real grappling challenge in the UFC.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking: Abdul-Malik's 2-fight UFC tape shows tight combinations, no wasted motion, and fight-ending power. His 4.25 strikes per minute nearly double Brundage's 2.14 output. Brundage's 55% accuracy is solid, but he throws barely 2.1 significant strikes per minute and relies on blitzes that leave his chin exposed. Grappling/Wrestling: Brundage shoots at almost one attempt per minute and converts 48%, with real top control when he achieves it. However, Abdul-Malik's sprawl remains a complete mystery - if he rebounds to his feet once or twice, his KO equity skyrockets dramatically.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
Three critical factors will determine this fight: First takedown attempt—if Brundage converts, he banks crucial control; if stuffed, Abdul-Malik opens up with confidence; Large-cage footwork—the 30-foot cage gives Abdul-Malik extra escape lanes, magnifying Brundage's distance-closing burden; and Minutes 5-9—if the fight spills into Round 2, Brundage's cardio edge can emerge, assuming his face remains intact from early exchanges.
🔄Momentum & Durability
The momentum trends heavily favor Abdul-Malik, who enters on a pristine 2-0 UFC run with back-to-back knockouts in under eight minutes total fight time. Brundage's recent form shows volatility at 3-3 (1 NC) in his last 7, including two R1 stoppage wins but also a concerning R2 submission loss to Bo Nickal. His 43% striking defense has proven vulnerable to elite athletes, while Abdul-Malik's perfect finishing rate suggests an ability to capitalize on any defensive lapses.
🎮Hypothetical Simulation
In a theoretical 100-fight simulation, Brundage controls position in 30 fights, finding ground-and-pound or front-choke finishes in 15, edging scrappy decisions in 10, and landing surprise bombs in 5 more. Conversely, Abdul-Malik stuffs and sparks him in 42 scenarios, picks him apart then finishes late in 11, and wins space-keeping decisions in 5. This breakdown reflects Abdul-Malik's superior boxing mechanics and the defensive challenge posed by the large cage environment.
🏁Final Prediction
Abdul-Malik's superior boxing mechanics, proven knockout power, and the space provided by the 30-foot cage should enable him to read Brundage's level-changes and land cleaner, harder shots. Brundage's best hope lies in an early takedown-to-submission sequence; otherwise, his 43% striking defense appears vulnerable to being cracked. The 85-15 split favoring Abdul-Malik reflects high confidence in the stylistic model, with Abdul-Malik's perfect finishing record and defensive vulnerabilities exposed by Brundage creating a stark mismatch. Expect Abdul-Malik to win by KO/TKO within the first two rounds (70% probability), utilizing his superior striking to neutralize Brundage's wrestling attempts.