Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
UFC Welterweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kamaru Usman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-21 | Khamzat Chimaev | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Leon Edwards | L | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | Leon Edwards | L | KO/TKO (R5, 4:04) |
| 2021-11-06 | Colby Covington | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-04-24 | Jorge Masvidal | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:02) |
Last 5 Fights - Joaquin Buckley
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Colby Covington | W | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage (R3, 4:42) |
| 2024-10-05 | Stephen Thompson | W | KO/TKO (R3, 2:17) |
| 2024-05-11 | Nursulton Ruziboev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Vicente Luque | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:17) |
| 2023-10-07 | Alex Morono | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (88 vs 68). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Kamaru Usman Key Advantages
Elite 90% takedown defense and 2.82 takedowns per 15min - historically dictates geography and pace
52% striking accuracy vs 37% plus superior +0.6 strike differential per minute over 25 minutes
Proven cardio tested in nine 25-minute fights - improves strike differential in later rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Mid-range firefights in open space against Buckley's explosive one-shot power and speed
Age 38 with recent KO losses - eating repeated body shots could compromise chin durability
📋 Likely Gameplan
Double-jab into level change, chain wrestle to mat returns, accumulate top damage
If stuffed, pivot to collar-tie knees and elbows along fence to bank rounds
🚀 Joaquin Buckley Key Advantages
Explosive knockout power with 0.84 knockdowns average - devastating finishing ability
28% of significant strikes target the body - devastating body-head combinations that drain tanks
Current 6-fight win streak with explosive speed and southpaw stance advantages
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Flattened under half-guard - 74% TDD historically dips to 55% against chain wrestling
Forced to fight off back foot in extended clinch pummeling - accuracy drops after round 2
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint high-kick / southpaw cross to body, force walk-offs in first 10 minutes
If taken down, explode to feet rather than play guard - avoid extended grappling
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on 100 hypothetical fights
📊Stylistic & Technical Snapshot
Kamaru Usman
Pressure wrestler-boxer; relentless clinch & fence control
4.36 SLpM @ 52% acc., 2.82 TD/15 min
2.74 SApM, 90% TDD
45% KO/TKO · 5% Sub · 50% Dec
Lost 3 straight (Edwards ×2, Chimaev) – mileage showing
Joaquin Buckley
Explosive pocket kick-boxer with opportunistic doubles
4.22 SLpM @ 37% acc., 1.78 TD/15 min
3.13 SApM, 74% TDD
71% KO/TKO · 0% Sub · 29% Dec
6-fight win-streak, UFC ELO at career high
⚔️How the Match-up Plays Out (Large 30-ft Cage, 5 Rounds)
🗺️Where the Fight Happens
Usman still owns the best clinch-to-takedown chain in the division; Buckley's 74% TDD is solid but built against single-level shots – he has given up control minutes to chain-wrestlers (e.g., Luque, Imavov). In a big cage Buckley can circle early, but Usman is master at cutting with the jab-level change series.
💥Damage Potential
Buckley's power is the one clearly fight-ending weapon; his knock-down rate (0.84/15) dwarfs Usman's (0.48/15). Usman's durability remains elite (only head-kick KO vs Edwards), but at 38 the reflex margin is thinner.
⏱️Cardio & Round-Winning Equity
Usman has 135 championship-round minutes on record and a +1.62 sig-strike differential. Buckley has never fought beyond 15 min and slows after ~10; his own diff is +1.09 but against lower pace opponents.
🎯Technical Edges
Usman lands to the body (29%) and legs, which historically blunts Buckley's second-phase bursts. Buckley's best defensive hole is eating straight rights while loading counters – Usman's southpaw-switch and piston jab exploit that lane.
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
🚀Buckley Wins: 60%
👑Usman Wins: 40%
These numbers reflect: Buckley's decisive power threat against age-declining resistance; Usman's larger round-winning envelope through control, but diminished ability to keep dominant positions for full five.
💰Odds Analysis: Model vs Market
Model-Derived Betting Line
Main Props - Model vs Market Comparison
| Market | Model % | Model Odds | Market Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight goes to decision – Yes | 40% | +150 | +120 | Small Value No |
| Fight goes to decision – No | 60% | -150 | -150 | Fair |
| Over 4.5 rds | 42% | +138 | +100 | Pass |
| Under 4.5 rds | 58% | -138 | -130 | Minor Value |
| Buckley KO/TKO | 40% | +150 | +165 | Small Value |
| Buckley Decision | 18% | +455 | +200 | Avoid |
| Buckley Submission | 2% | +4900 | +2000 | Avoid |
| Usman Decision | 22% | +355 | +450 | Strong Value |
| Usman KO/TKO | 15% | +567 | +280 | Avoid |
| Usman Submission | 3% | +3133 | +2500 | Pass |
Market vs Model (Value Spots)
| Line | Market Implied | Model | Δ (Edge) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buckley moneyline -270 | 73% | 60% | -13% (value Usman) |
| Usman +230 | 30% | 40% | +10% |
| Fight goes to decision Yes +120 | 45% | 40% | -5% (small value No) |
| Under 4.5 -130 | 56% | 58% | +2% (market near fair) |
Key Finding: The largest discrepancy is the outright moneyline. The model rates Usman's control toolkit and 5-round experience higher than a 30% chance, suggesting plus-money value.
Conviction Rating – 7/10
We're confident because the gap in proven 5-round endurance and wrestling control is quantifiable, while Buckley's finishing upside is also data-driven. The uncertainty comes from:
Aging curve – catastrophic decline could make Usman's cardio edge disappear overnight.
Buckley's unknown championship-round durability – the model assumes moderate fade but lacks empirical data.
Overall, enough decisive metrics (cardio differential, power disparity, recent momentum) create a clear yet not overwhelming lean toward Buckley, with significant live-dog upside for Usman.