Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez
Men's Bantamweight Bout Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Ricky Simon
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Adrian Yanez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ricky Simon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 08, 2025 | Raoni Barcelos | Loss | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Cameron Smotherman | Win | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Javid Basharat | Win | KO/TKO (1, 3:58) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Vinicius Oliveira | Loss | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Mario Bautista | Loss | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Adrian Yanez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | Daniel Marcos | Loss | S-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| May 18, 2024 | Vinicius Salvador | Win | KO/TKO (1, 2:47) |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Jonathan Martinez | Loss | KO/TKO (2, 2:26) |
| Apr 08, 2023 | Rob Font | Loss | KO/TKO (1, 2:57) |
| Jun 18, 2022 | Tony Kelley | Win | KO/TKO (1, 3:49) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.0 vs 48.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 27.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ricky Simon Key Advantages
Simon's 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Yanez's 0.00 represents a complete grappling asymmetry. Simon's relentless chain-wrestling approach—double legs off the cage, body lock takedowns, and reactive single legs—creates a one-dimensional control pathway that Yanez has no offensive answer to. With 41% takedown accuracy and a 76% takedown defense rate, Simon can dictate where the fight takes place while preventing any potential reversal. Yanez's 81% takedown defense suggests solid sprawling ability, but Simon's volume and persistence typically overwhelm pure defensive wrestlers over three rounds.
The 1.90 strikes absorbed per minute differential (3.85 vs 5.75) creates a damage economy that favors Simon in scoring optics. While Yanez's 6.23 SLpM output generates impressive volume, his 5.75 SApM absorption rate means he takes significant damage in exchanges. Simon's 61% striking defense allows him to weather Yanez's combinations while setting up takedown entries. Over three rounds, this differential means Simon accumulates less visible damage, which influences judges when rounds are competitive on the feet before grappling sequences begin.
Simon's 11:42 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to sustain pressure across full fights. His wrestling-heavy approach conserves energy while forcing Yanez to expend cardio defending takedowns and working off his back. In contrast, Yanez's 7:24 average fight duration reflects his tendency toward early finishes—when his power doesn't produce a stoppage, he becomes increasingly vulnerable as rounds progress. Simon's pressure wrestling and pace control become more effective in rounds 2 and 3, precisely when Yanez historically fades.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Yanez's explosive knockout power is most dangerous in the first round before Simon can establish his wrestling rhythm. With 8 KO/TKO wins and 5 of those coming in Round 1, Yanez has proven he can end fights instantly. Simon's 61% striking defense leaves gaps that a precision boxer like Yanez can exploit. If Simon fails to close distance quickly or gets caught during a level change, Yanez's counter punching ability could produce a flash knockout before the grappling game takes over.
If the fight remains predominantly on the feet, Yanez's 6.23 SLpM output advantage becomes decisive. The 30-foot cage provides space for Yanez to circle and reset after defending takedowns. His 1-inch reach advantage (70" vs 69") combined with superior boxing fundamentals create angles that Simon's more linear wrestling entries struggle to navigate. If Yanez successfully defends 3-4 consecutive takedown attempts, Simon's confidence in shooting can diminish while Yanez's volume scoring accelerates.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Simon should look to close distance early with jab feints and level changes, forcing Yanez to respect the takedown threat. Once in clinch range, Simon's body lock takedowns and trips against the cage become his highest-percentage weapons. By chaining 2-3 takedown attempts per sequence, Simon can exhaust Yanez's defensive resources and eventually secure top position. His 43% striking accuracy suggests he can land enough strikes to set up entries without overcommitting to exchanges where Yanez thrives.
Once Simon secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing top control and accumulating damage through ground-and-pound. His wrestling pedigree emphasizes rides, wrist control, and positional dominance rather than risky submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing Yanez's ability to scramble back to his feet. Simon's 76% takedown defense ensures he can maintain top position when Yanez attempts reversals, making this grinding strategy sustainable across all three rounds.
🚀 Adrian Yanez Key Advantages
Yanez's 82% finish rate with 8 of his 10 wins coming by KO/TKO represents elite-level knockout power at bantamweight. His boxing-first approach generates explosive combinations—hooks off the jab, uppercuts through the guard, and counter right hands that have ended fights against quality opposition. With 5 of those KO/TKOs coming in Round 1, Yanez doesn't need sustained exchanges to find the finish. His timing and accuracy on counter shots make him particularly dangerous against wrestlers who telegraph level changes, creating fight-ending opportunities on every entry Simon attempts.
Yanez's 6.23 SLpM output more than doubles Simon's 3.04, creating a massive volume advantage when fights stay on the feet. His high-output boxing style generates constant scoring opportunities through jabs, hooks, and body shots that accumulate damage and influence judges. Combined with his 81% takedown defense, Yanez has the tools to keep the fight standing where his volume advantage is maximized. When Simon can't establish wrestling control, Yanez's pace and output overwhelm more conservative strikers who can't match his rate of fire.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Simon's relentless chain-wrestling creates a nightmare scenario for Yanez—once pinned against the cage, Simon's body lock takedowns and reactive single legs are extremely difficult to defend consecutively. While Yanez's 81% takedown defense is strong on paper, Simon's 4.66 TD/15min volume means he'll face 5-7 takedown attempts per round. Even defending 80% of those still results in 1-2 takedowns per round, enough for Simon to bank control time and steal rounds. Once on the ground, Yanez's offensive output drops to near zero while Simon accumulates scoring minutes.
Yanez's 7:24 average fight duration reveals a fighter who thrives in short, explosive exchanges but struggles when fights extend. His 6.23 SLpM output and 5.75 SApM absorption create unsustainable energy expenditure over three full rounds. When combined with takedown defense and scrambling, Yanez's cardio reserves deplete rapidly. His losses (Font R1 KO, Martinez R2 KO, Marcos Dec) show vulnerability both to pressure and to sustained engagements. Simon's grinding pace specifically targets this weakness, making Rounds 2 and 3 increasingly dangerous territory for Yanez.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Yanez should prioritize maintaining center cage position and using lateral movement to avoid Simon's cage-cutting pressure. His boxing fundamentals allow him to counter Simon's level changes with uppercuts and hooks, making each takedown entry risky. By staying off the fence and using sharp angles, Yanez can nullify Simon's wrestling while landing clean scoring shots. His 1-inch reach advantage enables him to establish range with the jab and create opportunities for power shots when Simon overcommits.
Yanez's best path to victory is front-loading damage in Round 1 before Simon establishes his grinding rhythm. His explosive combinations and knockout power peak when fresh, and Simon's 61% striking defense leaves openings for clean shots. Yanez should be aggressive early, looking to hurt Simon and potentially secure a stoppage before the wrestling pressure compounds. If he can rock Simon with power shots in the first five minutes, the momentum shift could prevent Simon from committing confidently to takedown attempts for the remainder of the fight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates an interesting dynamic in this bantamweight matchup—initially favoring Yanez's lateral movement and boxing range, but gradually shifting toward Simon's pressure wrestling as the fight develops. Yanez's 70-inch reach and movement-heavy boxing style benefit from the larger cage in early exchanges, allowing him to circle and reset after defending takedown attempts. However, Simon's relentless cage-cutting and clinch work gradually reduce the usable space, forcing Yanez into wrestling exchanges where his 0.00 TD/15min offers no offensive threat. Simon's ability to steer Yanez toward the fence transforms the large cage from a safety net into a trap, creating progressive wrestling advantages over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields: grappling control and striking volume. Simon's 4.66 TD/15min vs Yanez's 0.00 represents a complete grappling asymmetry that fundamentally controls fight location and scoring. Meanwhile, Yanez's striking output (6.23 SLpM vs 3.04) creates a 2x volume advantage when standing. Simon's damage economy (3.85 SApM vs 5.75) provides a modest defensive edge, but the real battle is whether Simon can consistently take the fight to the ground where Yanez's 82% finish rate becomes irrelevant. The 43% StrAcc vs 41% accuracy gap is negligible, meaning the fight's trajectory depends almost entirely on takedown success rate rather than striking exchanges.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine this fight: Yanez's takedown defense (81%) vs Simon's volume wrestling (4.66 TD/15min), counter punching on level changes, and round-by-round cardio sustainability. Yanez's strong TDD suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Simon's persistent chain-wrestling from the clinch and at the fence typically breaks through over three rounds. Yanez's counter uppercuts and hooks during level changes represent his most dangerous weapons, but Simon's ability to feint and vary entry timing reduces their effectiveness. As the fight progresses, Simon's superior cardio (11:42 avg duration vs 7:24) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with wrestling pressure that forces Yanez to expend energy defending takedowns.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Ricky Simon by Decision (35% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation over three rounds. Simon's KO/TKO path (12%) becomes viable through ground-and-pound after securing dominant positions. Yanez's primary path is KO/TKO (28%) via his explosive boxing, particularly in Round 1 before Simon establishes wrestling control. Yanez's decision path (10%) requires successfully defending the majority of takedown attempts and outscoring Simon on the feet—a scenario that becomes unlikely if Simon can execute even 2-3 successful takedowns across the three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Fair: +186
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Yanez KO power – Underprices Simon's wrestling control over 3 rounds.
- • Undervalues grappling asymmetry – 4.66 vs 0.00 TD/15min creates one-way fight control.
- • Yanez durability questions – 7:24 avg duration and 5.75 SApM suggest vulnerability in later rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ricky Simon
Primary path via wrestling control and fence pressure
Ground-and-pound accumulation after takedowns
Back-takes off rides create RNC opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Adrian Yanez
Best path via explosive boxing combinations
Requires defending majority of takedowns over 3 rounds
No submission wins in Yanez's career
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Adrian Yanez
- • First 5 minutes: Peak knockout equity before wrestling establishes.
- • Counter punching: Uppercuts and hooks on level changes.
- • Center cage: Stay off fence; use lateral movement.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ricky Simon
- • Chain wrestling: Multiple attempts per sequence to exhaust defense.
- • Fence pressure: Cut angles and establish clinch control.
- • Late rounds: Cardio advantage creates decisive scoring edge.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high edge via wrestling control and Yanez KO threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (4.66 vs 0.00 TD/15min)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy (3.85 vs 5.75)
- • Superior cardio profile (11:42 vs 7:24 avg duration)
- • Proven grinding ability over full 3-round fights
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Yanez's explosive KO power (8 KO/TKO wins, 5 in R1)
- • 81% TD defense could frustrate Simon's entries
- • 3-round format limits Simon's late-fight advantage
🏁Executive Summary
Ricky Simon's wrestling-heavy approach should gradually control the pace and location of this bantamweight matchup, while Adrian Yanez's best equity centers on his explosive boxing power and early knockout potential before Simon's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials highlight a clear grappling asymmetry: Simon's 4.66 TD/15min vs Yanez's 0.00 creates a one-way control pathway, while Yanez's 6.23 SLpM nearly doubles Simon's 3.04 output on the feet. Simon's damage economy (3.85 SApM vs 5.75) and cardio advantage (11:42 vs 7:24 avg duration) favor the wrestler as the fight progresses, while Yanez's 81% takedown defense and 82% finish rate ensure this remains a competitive contest through the first two rounds.
Prediction: Simon by Decision most likely (35% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Yanez's primary path is KO/TKO (28%) via explosive boxing, particularly in Round 1 before wrestling control is established. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Yanez can capitalize on his early power advantage before Simon's grinding pace and superior cardio become decisive factors.