Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • Seattle, Washington • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Alexia Thainara
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Bruna Brasil
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alexia Thainara
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Lucie Pudilova | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 0:28) |
| 2024-08-10 | Alice Ardelean | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Viktoriia Dudakova | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Silvana Gomez Juarez | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:41) |
| 2023-04-22 | Yazmin Jauregui | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:39) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Bruna Brasil
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Ketlen Souza | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-28 | Luana Carolina | W | KO/TKO - Knees (R2, 4:23) |
| 2025-06-14 | Carli Judice | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Denise Gomes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Ravena Oliveira | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:27) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (57.0 vs 53.0) and Grappling Composite (80.0 vs 45.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alexia Thainara Key Advantages
Thainara's 3.91 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Brasil's 1.55 represents a 2.5x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. With 7 career submission wins—three via rear-naked choke in her last five UFC fights alone—Thainara's chain wrestling sequences create constant finishing threats. Brasil's 54% takedown defense is well below elite level, suggesting Thainara will consistently secure takedowns and advance to dominant positions. The Brazilian grappler's 60% takedown accuracy combined with her relentless pressure creates a compounding problem for Brasil as the fight progresses.
The 1.68 strikes absorbed per minute differential (2.46 vs 4.14) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Thainara in scoring optics. Her 65% striking defense ensures fewer clean shots land, while Brasil's 48% defense means she takes significant damage in exchanges. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Thainara maintains her pace without accumulating damage, while Brasil's high absorption rate leaves her increasingly vulnerable to takedowns and ground control as the fight progresses.
Thainara's perfect 100% takedown defense combined with her 80.0 grappling composite (vs Brasil's 45.0) creates total control of fight location. She can take the fight wherever she wants while denying Brasil any grappling exchanges of her own. This 35-point composite gap is enormous—Thainara dictates whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground, and when it goes to the ground, her 1.74 submissions per 15 minutes creates constant finishing threats that Brasil cannot reciprocate with her 0.00 SubPer15.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Brasil's 59% striking accuracy vs Thainara's 41% represents a significant precision advantage. If the fight remains standing for extended periods, Brasil's cleaner striking could win rounds on the scorecards. Her ability to land nearly 6 out of every 10 strikes thrown means she can be efficient with her output while Thainara's lower accuracy requires higher volume to score equivalent damage. In a standup-heavy fight, this accuracy differential could sway judges.
Brasil's 2-inch height advantage and 2-inch leg reach advantage allow her to manage distance effectively with long kicks and jabs. At 5'6" vs 5'4", Brasil can use her length to keep Thainara at the end of her punches and threaten with leg kicks that target Thainara's base. The small cage mitigates this somewhat, but Brasil's physical tools give her options to create separation and reset when pressured.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Thainara should establish her takedown threat immediately, using her 3.91 TD15 rate and 60% accuracy to bring Brasil to the mat early and often. The small 25-foot cage limits Brasil's ability to circle away from takedown entries, creating shorter distances for Thainara to close. By establishing the takedown threat early, Thainara can also open up her striking—Brasil will be forced to defend level changes, creating openings for clean shots on the feet.
Once Thainara secures takedowns, her priority should be advancing to dominant positions and hunting for submissions—particularly the rear-naked choke that has accounted for three of her last five UFC wins. Her 1.74 SubPer15 rate creates constant finishing threats that Brasil cannot reciprocate. By combining ground control with submission attempts, Thainara can simultaneously bank minutes on the scorecards while creating fight-ending opportunities, especially in later rounds when Brasil's energy reserves deplete from defending.
🚀 Bruna Brasil Key Advantages
Brasil's 59% striking accuracy vs Thainara's 41% represents one of the largest accuracy differentials in this weight class. Her precision allows her to land cleaner shots with less output, creating efficient scoring opportunities when the fight stays on the feet. Brasil's ability to pick her shots rather than throw volume means she conserves energy while still scoring significant strikes. Her 3 career KO/TKO wins demonstrate that her accuracy translates to fight-ending power, particularly with knees as shown in her recent finish of Luana Carolina.
Brasil's 5'6" height and 38-inch leg reach (vs Thainara's 5'4" and 36") create meaningful advantages in distance management. Her longer legs allow effective calf kicks and teeps that can disrupt Thainara's forward pressure and takedown entries. The height advantage also makes it more difficult for Thainara to secure clinch positions and complete takedowns against the fence. Brasil's physical frame gives her the tools to maintain her preferred striking range, particularly in the early rounds before Thainara's pressure compounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Brasil's 54% takedown defense is a critical vulnerability against Thainara's 3.91 TD15 rate. Nearly half of all takedown attempts against Brasil succeed, and Thainara's relentless grappling pressure means she'll face multiple attempts per round. Once on the ground, Brasil faces Thainara's dangerous submission game with limited offensive tools of her own. The small cage amplifies this problem—Brasil has less space to circle away from takedown entries, and fence exchanges quickly become clinch battles where Thainara thrives.
Brasil's 0.00 SubPer15 rate means she poses zero submission threat from the bottom or in scrambles. When Thainara takes her down, Brasil can only work to stand back up—she cannot threaten sweeps or submissions that might discourage Thainara from pursuing top position. This one-dimensional ground game makes Brasil predictable and allows Thainara to commit fully to her top game without fear of being caught in a submission off her back.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brasil's optimal strategy involves maintaining her preferred striking distance using her height and leg reach advantages. Her calf kicks and teeps should target Thainara's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult. Brasil needs to use her 59% accuracy to land clean, scoring shots while avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges where Thainara can initiate takedowns. Lateral movement and angle changes are essential to prevent Thainara from pinning her against the cage.
Brasil's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first round when Thainara hasn't yet established her wrestling rhythm. Her 3 career KO/TKO wins show she has finishing power, and her recent knee finish of Luana Carolina demonstrates the type of fight-ending moment she needs. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns, Brasil can force Thainara to fight from behind and potentially alter the grappler's gameplan. The key is making Thainara respect her striking before the takedown pressure becomes overwhelming.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot small octagon strongly favors Thainara's pressure-grappling style. The reduced cage space limits Brasil's ability to maintain her preferred striking distance and circle away from takedown entries. Thainara can close distance faster, establish clinch positions more easily, and pin Brasil against the fence with less effort than in a standard 30-foot cage. For Brasil, every step backward brings the fence closer, creating a claustrophobic dynamic where her height and reach advantages become less impactful. The small cage transforms the matchup from a potential range battle into a pressure test where Thainara's relentless wrestling becomes increasingly difficult to avoid.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a clear stylistic clash: Thainara's elite grappling (80.0 composite, 3.91 TD15, 100% TDDef, 1.74 SubPer15) vs Brasil's striking precision (59% accuracy, 2.77 SLpM). The grappling differential is massive—Thainara's 80.0 composite vs Brasil's 45.0 represents a 35-point gap that dominates when the fight hits the mat. Brasil's 54% TDDef means roughly half of Thainara's takedown attempts will succeed, and with 3.91 attempts per 15 minutes, multiple takedowns per round are expected. The damage economy further favors Thainara (2.46 vs 4.14 SApM), creating cleaner scorecards even in mixed rounds.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: takedown defense at the fence, striking accuracy at range, and ground control. Brasil's 54% takedown defense is the fight's pivot point—if she can improve on this number and stuff early attempts, she can establish her striking rhythm and exploit her 18-percentage-point accuracy advantage. However, Thainara's chain wrestling and re-shot ability typically break through over time, especially in the small cage where fence-assisted takedowns become available. On the ground, Brasil's 0.00 SubPer15 makes her entirely dependent on standing back up, while Thainara hunts for finishes with her rear-naked choke.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Alexia Thainara by Submission (30% probability), achieved through chain wrestling into back-takes and rear-naked choke attempts that have defined her recent UFC career. Thainara's Decision path (25%) becomes the alternative when submissions are unavailable but top control accumulates scoring minutes. Brasil's best path is by Decision (18%), requiring her to defend enough takedowns and outpoint Thainara standing with her superior accuracy. Brasil's KO/TKO path (12%) centers on intercept knees or clean combinations as Thainara commits to level changes. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Brasil can maintain distance in the small cage long enough to exploit her striking precision before Thainara's grappling pressure becomes overwhelming.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues submission finishing rate – Thainara's 3 RNC wins in 5 UFC fights suggest higher sub probability than market prices.
- • Small cage factor underpriced – 25ft cage significantly amplifies Thainara's grappling pressure.
- • TDDef mismatch – Brasil's 54% TDDef vs Thainara's 3.91 TD15 creates exploitable finish paths.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alexia Thainara
Primary path via back-takes and rear-naked choke
Top control and ground-and-pound accumulation
Ground-and-pound stoppage or standing pressure
💥Outcome Distribution - Bruna Brasil
Outpointing via precision striking at range
Intercept knees or clean combinations
Low historical submission profile (0.00 SubPer15)
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bruna Brasil
- • First 5 minutes: Highest striking equity before wrestling rhythm.
- • Range control: Calf kicks + jabs to stall entries.
- • Short bursts: Land clean then reset; avoid clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alexia Thainara
- • Chain takedowns: Multiple attempts per round wear down TDDef.
- • Back-takes: Hunt for RNC from dominant positions.
- • Late rounds: Submission threat peaks as Brasil fatigues.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear grappling edge and small cage amplifier
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling edge (3.91 vs 1.55 TD15)
- • Perfect 100% takedown defense
- • 7 career submission wins, 3 RNC in last 5 UFC fights
- • Small cage amplifies pressure wrestling
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Brasil's 59% striking accuracy vs 41%
- • Height and leg reach disadvantage
- • Brasil coming off loss may be extra motivated
🏁Executive Summary
Alexia Thainara's systematic grappling pressure should compress the small 25-foot octagon space and create constant submission threats, while Bruna Brasil's best equity centers on maintaining range control and exploiting her 18-percentage-point striking accuracy advantage before the grappling pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Thainara: her 3.91 TD15 vs Brasil's 1.55 creates a 2.5x takedown volume advantage, while her perfect 100% TDDef ensures she controls fight location entirely. Thainara's 80.0 grappling composite vs Brasil's 45.0 represents a dominant 35-point gap, and her 1.74 SubPer15 with three rear-naked choke finishes in five UFC fights creates constant finishing threats that Brasil cannot reciprocate with her 0.00 SubPer15. The small cage further amplifies Thainara's advantages by limiting Brasil's ability to create distance and reset.
Prediction: Thainara by Submission most likely (30% probability) through chain wrestling into back-takes and rear-naked chokes; Brasil's upset lane is by Decision (18%) via maintaining range control and outpointing Thainara standing. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Brasil can defend takedowns and keep distance in the small cage long enough to exploit her striking precision before Thainara's grappling pressure becomes overwhelming.