Carol Foro vs Stephanie Luciano
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Carol Foro
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Stephanie Luciano
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Carol Foro
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 09, 2025 | Shanelle Dyer | W | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Sofía Esquer | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (1, 1:30) |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Zulfiya Kurbashova | W | KO/TKO (Body Shot) (2, 3:30) |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Dayane Mestrinha | W | KO/TKO (Body Shot) (1, 2:24) |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Marina Nica | W | KO/TKO (Spinning Back Kick) (1, 2:41) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Stephanie Luciano
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ravena Oliveira | W | SUB (RNC) (3, 2:50) |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Sam Hughes | L | S-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Talita Alencar | W | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Talita Alencar | D | U-DEC Draw (3, 5:00) |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Karina Aryadne | W | U-DEC (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 52.0) and Grappling Composite (38.0 vs 60.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Carol Foro Key Advantages
Foro's 7.80 SLpM is extraordinary at women's strawweight — nearly double the division average. Combined with 55% striking accuracy, she lands approximately 4.29 adjusted significant strikes per minute compared to Luciano's 2.18. Six career KO/TKOs including spinning back kicks, body shots, and power hooks demonstrate a rare finishing power virtually unprecedented at 115 lbs.
Foro doesn't just win by power — she wins through creativity. Spinning back kick KO (Nica), consecutive body shot finishes (Kurbashova, Mestrinha), power hook KO (Silva), and first-round punching stoppages demonstrate a fighter who attacks at multiple levels from unexpected angles. This makes her extraordinarily difficult to game-plan for — Luciano can't simply protect her chin because the body is a proven target.
Foro's perfect takedown defense, combined with her compact 5'2" frame providing a naturally low center of gravity, creates structural resistance to takedowns. If she maintains this defense against Luciano's 71% TDAcc wrestling, the fight stays on the feet where Foro holds every advantage. Her 6-fight winning streak with 5 KO/TKO finishes brings supreme confidence to her UFC debut.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Luciano secures even 1-2 takedowns per round — and her 71% TDAcc makes this probable — Foro's striking advantage becomes irrelevant for significant portions of the fight. Every minute on the floor defending is a minute NOT using her primary weapon. Against Luciano's proven ground ability, Foro could spend 5-8 minutes of 15 on the ground — enough to lose a decision.
The UFC Octagon is different from every regional cage Foro has fought in. Some debutantes experience an adrenaline dump — nervous energy causing massive early energy expenditure followed by rapid fatigue. If Foro burns her gas tank through overaggression in the first 3 minutes without finishing, she could face a fresh Luciano with diminished reserves in Rounds 2 and 3.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Foro should come out with measured pressure — persistent forward movement that closes the 4-inch reach gap and forces Luciano inside the pocket. The key tactical adjustment is cutting angles inside Luciano's jab, using head movement and lateral movement. She should attack the body early and often — her proven body-shot finishing ability is the single most dangerous weapon in this fight, and Luciano's taller frame presents ideal targets.
If Luciano shoots, Foro MUST prioritize sprawling hard and returning to striking range immediately. Every second spent grappling is a second wasted. She should maintain offensive pressure on the feet and use her compact frame and low center of gravity to deny takedowns. If the fight reaches Round 3 without a finish, maintain volume to win scorecards.
🚀 Stephanie Luciano Key Advantages
Luciano's grappling is the weapon that can neutralize Foro's entire game. Her 71% takedown accuracy with 1.30 TD/15 and the RNC finish of Oliveira in R3 demonstrate legitimate UFC-level grappling. Against a debutante whose grappling credentials are largely unknown (0.00 TD/15, 0.0 Sub/15), Luciano's grappling represents the clearest pathway to victory.
Luciano has 3 UFC fights (2-1) and has NEVER been stopped in 10 professional fights. She knows the UFC lights, the crowd, and the elevated pressure. Zero career stoppages combined with 64% striking defense means she can survive Foro's early striking storm and transition to her preferred grappling game as the fight progresses.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most dangerous period for Luciano is the opening 3-4 minutes — when Foro is fresh, explosive, and at maximum output. Five of Foro's six KO/TKOs came in Round 1 with finishing times between 1:10 and 2:41. If Foro lands clean power shots — particularly body shots — Luciano could be stopped before her grappling becomes relevant.
If Foro's 100% TDDef holds — and her compact, low-center-of-gravity frame supports this — Luciano is forced to compete in a standing fight where she holds every disadvantage. Her 42% StrAcc and 5.20 SLpM cannot compete with Foro's 55% and 7.80 SLpM. Without takedowns, Luciano's entire gameplan collapses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Luciano should use her reach and height to establish the jab early — not to outbox Foro, but to manage range and set up takedown entries. When Foro pressures forward, Luciano should time level changes — using Foro's aggressive forward movement against her with reactive single-legs or double-legs that capitalize on Foro's forward weight distribution.
Once securing takedowns, Luciano should prioritize advancing to dominant positions and accumulating control time rather than rushing submission attempts. Her RNC capability is a finishing weapon, but the primary goal should be eliminating Foro's striking time. Ground-and-pound combined with positional control maximizes scoring while minimizing Foro's opportunity to create the explosive striking exchanges she thrives on.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler showdown at women's strawweight. The dynamics heavily favor the opening minutes for Foro — her 7.80 SLpM output and early-round finishing ability (5 of 6 KO/TKOs in R1) create an immediate danger period. However, as time progresses, the fight increasingly favors Luciano — her 12:00 average fight duration and cardio superiority (68 vs 58) mean she becomes more dangerous as Foro's explosive output wanes. The fight location — standing vs. ground — will ultimately determine the winner.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The striking differential is massive: Foro lands 7.80 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy — nearly double Luciano's 5.20 SLpM at 42% accuracy. This translates to ~4.29 adjusted strikes per minute vs ~2.18. However, Luciano compensates through grappling — her 1.30 TD/15 at 71% accuracy against Foro's zero recorded takedown attempts creates a clear path to neutralize the striking gap. The key question: can Luciano survive Foro's power long enough to impose her grappling? The answer depends largely on how Foro's 100% TDDef translates to UFC-level competition.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Foro's early striking damage potential, Foro's takedown defense against Luciano's wrestling, and Luciano's durability under power strikes. If Foro can keep the fight standing, her 78% finish rate and diverse KO arsenal make her the clear favorite. But if Luciano can weather the opening storm and establish her grappling, her superior cardio and positional control create the conditions for a decision victory. The unknown factor is Foro's UFC debut — can she replicate her regional dominance against UFC-caliber competition?
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Carol Foro by KO/TKO (35% probability), driven by her devastating power and diverse finishing arsenal — particularly her body shot stops. Foro's decision path (15%) becomes viable if her striking volume dominates but lacks the finishing shot. Luciano's best path is Decision (25%) through wrestling control and positional dominance on the ground. Luciano's Submission path (10%) centers on her proven RNC ability if she can secure back control. Draw or alternate outcomes account for the remaining 15%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Highest probability path
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Wrestling control path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Foro's R1 finish rate
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Debut discount – Market may undervalue Foro's elite finishing rate due to lack of UFC track record.
- • Grappling gap uncertainty – Foro's TDDef is untested at UFC level; market may overprice it.
- • Finish probability – Foro's 78% finish rate suggests the Under on rounds may have value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Carol Foro
Primary path via body shots and power striking
Volume striking dominance over 3 rounds
Low probability but has 1 career submission win
💥Outcome Distribution - Stephanie Luciano
Primary path via wrestling control and positional dominance
RNC from back control after takedowns
Low knockout power; only 2 career KO/TKOs
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Carol Foro
- • Round 1 blitz: Highest KO probability; 5 of 6 KO/TKOs come in R1.
- • Body attacks: Liver shots and body kicks to create openings.
- • Volume pressure: 7.80 SLpM to overwhelm before grappling threat.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Stephanie Luciano
- • Survive and wrestle: Weather the early storm, then impose grappling.
- • Control time: Takedowns and positional dominance to outscore.
- • Late rounds: Cardio superiority creates submission opportunities.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence — Foro's power favors her but UFC debut adds uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite 7.80 SLpM with 55% accuracy
- • 78% career finish rate with diverse KO methods
- • 6-fight win streak entering UFC debut
- • 100% TDDef in regional competition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut — untested against elite competition
- • 7.67 SApM — absorbs significant damage
- • No UFC grappling data — TDDef may not translate
🏁Executive Summary
Carol Foro enters her UFC debut as a devastating finisher with elite striking volume (7.80 SLpM) and a 78% finish rate that includes body shot KOs and diverse stopping methods. Her opponent Stephanie Luciano offers a proven grappling-based approach with 71% takedown accuracy and superior cardio (12:00 avg fight duration vs 5:30). The key question is whether Foro's power can end the fight before Luciano imposes her wrestling game. Foro's 100% TDDef is untested at the UFC level, creating the primary uncertainty in this matchup.
Prediction: Foro by KO/TKO most likely (35% probability) through her devastating power and body shot finishing arsenal; Luciano's best path is Decision (25%) through wrestling control and positional dominance. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Foro can capitalize on her early power advantage before Luciano's grappling and cardio superiority become decisive.