Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026
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Chase Hooper
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Lance Gibson Jr.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Chase Hooper
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Alexander Hernandez | L | KO/TKO (Right Cross to Ground Punches) (R1, 4:58) |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Jim Miller | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Dec 07, 2024 | Clay Guida | W | SUB (Armbar) (R1, 3:41) |
| May 11, 2024 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | SUB (D'Arce Choke) (R2, 3:00) |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Jordan Leavitt | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 2:58) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Lance Gibson Jr.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | King Green | L | S-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Nov 23, 2024 | RJ Hoyt | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 2:30) |
| May 25, 2024 | Charon Spain | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:51) |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Vladimir Tokov | W | TKO (Power Jab to Ground Strikes) (R1, 1:02) |
| Oct 01, 2022 | Dominic Clark | W | SUB (Triangle Choke) (R1, 1:49) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Chase Hooper Key Advantages
Hooper's submission arsenal is among the best in the UFC lightweight division — RNC, D'Arce Choke, Armbar, Heel Hook — demonstrating the ability to finish from virtually any grappling position. Against Gibson's 50% takedown defense and 0.00 Sub/15, Hooper's grappling creates a constant finishing threat throughout all 15 minutes. His 4 UFC submission wins showcase a complete ground game that can threaten from top, bottom, guard, and scramble positions.
Hooper has competed in 12 UFC bouts across 6+ years, fighting elite competition including Jim Miller, Alex Caceres, Steve Garcia, and Alexander Hernandez. Gibson has fought once in the UFC — a loss. This gap affects every dimension: cage management, pressure response, round pacing, and adjustments between rounds. The Octagon experience gap is enormous and becomes particularly decisive in close moments where composure and technical awareness determine outcomes.
Hooper generates more than double Gibson's striking output — 4.51 SLpM vs 2.00 — a volume advantage that will overwhelm Gibson from range if he cannot close distance and impose his own game. Combined with a 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage, Hooper can pepper Gibson with strikes from ranges where the shorter fighter cannot effectively counter. His adjusted landed rate (2.21/min) is nearly 3x Gibson's (0.82/min).
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hooper's 39% striking defense and history of being stopped (Garcia R1 TKO, Hernandez R1 KO) create a genuine vulnerability. If Gibson establishes clean striking entries in the first 2-3 minutes — before Hooper initiates grappling — a flash KO similar to the Hernandez finish is possible. Hooper's tendency to absorb strikes while closing distance creates counter-striking windows.
If Gibson takes Hooper down and intelligently avoids guard positions — maintaining positional control from half-guard or side control while delivering ground-and-pound — he could neutralize Hooper's submission threat while accumulating damage. Gibson's Bellator finishes via GnP show he understands this pathway.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hooper should use his southpaw stance and reach advantage to establish jabs and lead right hands from distance, then shoot for takedowns when Gibson commits to closing distance. The large 30-foot cage favors Hooper's length and ability to maintain range before choosing moments to engage. Once on the mat, immediately attack submissions — D'Arce, armbar, and RNC are all live weapons.
The Garcia and Hernandez losses both came from extended striking exchanges where Hooper's defensive gaps were exposed. Maintain range, pick shots, and convert to grappling at every opportunity. If Gibson defends takedowns, use clinch work against the cage to drag the fight to the ground through body-lock takedowns or snap-downs.
🚀 Lance Gibson Jr. Key Advantages
Gibson's striking defense is significantly better than Hooper's. Hooper's 39% StrDef means 61% of strikes land on him — a massive vulnerability that any competent striker can exploit. If Gibson can establish a clean striking game and punish Hooper's defensive lapses, he could replicate the Garcia/Hernandez blueprint of finishing Hooper with strikes.
Gibson has demonstrated legitimate finishing power with first-round stoppages of Tokov (1:02), Spain (0:51), Jones (1:58), and Pina (R2 GnP). Against Hooper's 39% striking defense — the worst in this matchup — Gibson's power represents a genuine KO threat, particularly in the early going before Hooper can establish his grappling game.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Once this fight hits the mat in any configuration — takedown, pull, scramble, clinch-to-ground transition — Hooper's world-class submission game activates. Gibson's 50% TDDef means Hooper will find takedowns, and his 0.00 Sub/15 at UFC level means Gibson has shown no ability to threaten submissions in return. The grappling dimension is overwhelmingly in Hooper's favor.
Gibson's 2.00 SLpM means he is essentially doubled in output even by an average lightweight. Against Hooper's 4.51 SLpM, Gibson will be dramatically outstruck if the fight remains standing for extended periods. A fight that stays standing past R1 is likely to produce a lopsided striking differential in Hooper's favor, making a decision loss increasingly likely.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Gibson's optimal strategy is built on keeping this fight standing and punishing Hooper's striking defense. Use his compact frame to press forward, throwing power shots — particularly the right hand and left hook — targeting Hooper's exposed chin (39% StrDef). The Garcia blueprint is the template: close distance aggressively, land clean power shots, and finish on the feet before the grappling begins.
This fight is won or lost in the first 3 minutes on the feet. If Gibson cannot hurt Hooper early with striking, the fight duration will inevitably shift probability toward a Hooper submission. Gibson must absolutely avoid the ground — do not shoot takedowns (which would deliver him into Hooper's guard), and defend Hooper's takedown attempts with maximum urgency.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon in Seattle provides Hooper with extra space to utilize his 4-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach edge. The larger cage allows Hooper to maintain distance with his southpaw jab while choosing when to engage in grappling exchanges. For Gibson, the extra space means more distance to cover before landing power shots — a significant disadvantage for the shorter fighter who needs to close range quickly. The hometown crowd in Seattle could provide an energy boost for Hooper (Enumclaw, WA native), adding an intangible factor in close moments.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This matchup is defined by a fundamental skills disconnect: Hooper's world-class grappling (2.10 Sub/15, 62 composite grappling) versus Gibson's striking power (4 R1 finishes). Hooper's 4.51 SLpM doubles Gibson's 2.00, and his 49% striking accuracy edges Gibson's 41%. However, Hooper's glaring weakness — 39% striking defense — creates a genuine vulnerability to Gibson's power. The experience gap (12 vs 1 UFC fights) tilts this heavily toward Hooper, as does the grappling differential where Hooper's submission arsenal faces Gibson's 0.00 Sub/15. This fight will likely be determined by whether Gibson can land clean power shots before Hooper initiates grappling.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: (1) Gibson's ability to keep the fight standing vs Hooper's takedown entries — Gibson's 50% TDDef must improve significantly to survive. (2) The first 3 minutes on the feet — if Gibson can't hurt Hooper early, the fight shifts decisively toward grappling. (3) Hooper's striking defense — at 39%, he's vulnerable to the same KO path that Garcia and Hernandez exploited. If Hooper survives the early striking exchanges and initiates grappling, his submission threat becomes overwhelming against an opponent with no demonstrated submission defense at the UFC level.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Chase Hooper by Submission (35% probability), achieved through takedown entries into his world-class ground game — D'Arce Choke, RNC, or Armbar are all live weapons. Hooper's Decision path (17%) becomes viable if Gibson successfully defends takedowns but cannot generate enough power to finish. Hooper's KO/TKO path (12%) exists through volume striking accumulation. Gibson's best chance is an early KO/TKO (25%) — targeting Hooper's 39% StrDef before grappling begins. Gibson's Decision (8%) and Submission (3%) paths are less likely given the experience and grappling gaps.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights debut fighters – Gibson's 1 UFC fight means limited data, but his stoppage losses inflate perceived power.
- • Undervalues submission threat – Hooper's 2.10 Sub/15 against a 0.00 Sub/15 opponent should be priced more aggressively.
- • Experience gap overlooked – 12 vs 1 UFC fights is a massive differentiator in close moments.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Chase Hooper
Primary path via D'Arce, RNC, or Armbar from grappling entries
Volume striking and control time accumulation
Volume striking accumulation over 3 rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Lance Gibson Jr.
Best path via early power shots against 39% StrDef
Requires keeping fight standing and outscoring on feet
Negligible submission threat at UFC level
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Lance Gibson Jr.
- • First 3 minutes: Highest KO equity before Hooper initiates grappling.
- • Power shots: Right hand and left hook targeting Hooper's 39% StrDef.
- • Stay standing: Avoid all grappling exchanges at all costs.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Chase Hooper
- • Grappling entries: Takedowns and clinch-to-mat transitions activate submission game.
- • Volume striking: 4.51 SLpM doubles Gibson's output from range.
- • Experience edge: 12 UFC fights vs 1 creates composure advantage.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong grappling edge but Gibson's KO power introduces variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • World-class submission game (2.10 Sub/15 vs 0.00)
- • Massive experience gap (12 vs 1 UFC fights)
- • Superior striking volume (4.51 vs 2.00 SLpM)
- • Hometown advantage in Seattle
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hooper's 39% StrDef creates genuine KO vulnerability
- • Gibson's proven R1 finishing power (4 first-round stops)
- • Limited UFC data on Gibson makes prediction less reliable
🏁Executive Summary
Chase Hooper's world-class submission game and massive experience advantage should prove decisive against Lance Gibson Jr., who brings legitimate power but a severe grappling deficit. The statistical differentials overwhelmingly favor Hooper: his 2.10 Sub/15 vs Gibson's 0.00 creates the widest submission gap on the card, while his 4.51 SLpM doubles Gibson's 2.00. The experience gap (12 vs 1 UFC fights) compounds these advantages — Hooper has fought and beaten elite competition while Gibson's sole UFC appearance was a decision loss. The 30-foot cage and Seattle hometown crowd further tilt conditions in Hooper's favor.
Prediction: Hooper by Submission most likely (35% probability) through D'Arce Choke, RNC, or Armbar; Gibson's upset path is early KO/TKO (25%) targeting Hooper's 39% StrDef before grappling begins. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Gibson can land clean power shots in the first 3 minutes before Hooper's grappling and experience advantages become overwhelming.