Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026
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Julian Erosa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Lerryan Douglas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Julian Erosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Melquizael Costa | L | Unanimous Decision (3, 5:00) |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Darren Elkins | W | KO/TKO (Knee/Elbows/Punches) (1, 4:15) |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Christian Rodriguez | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (1, 4:49) |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Ricardo Ramos | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (1, 2:15) |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Fernando Padilla | L | KO/TKO (Right Hook) (1, 1:41) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Lerryan Douglas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 09, 2025 | Cam Teague | W | KO/TKO (Left Hook) (1, 0:36) |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Elijah Johns | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (2, 2:35) |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Javier Reyes | W | KO/TKO (Punch) (2, 2:56) |
| May 17, 2024 | Nathan Ghareeb | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (2, 0:45) |
| Nov 17, 2023 | Ivan Tena | L | KO/TKO (Left Hook) (1, 1:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.0 vs 68.0) and Grappling Composite (50.0 vs 20.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Julian Erosa Key Advantages
Erosa brings 18 UFC fights of octagon experience compared to Douglas making his promotional debut. This massive experience gap means Erosa has navigated every possible in-fight scenario—adversity, cage pressure, crowd energy, and championship-level competition. His 10-8 UFC record shows he wins more often than not at the highest level, and his comfort in the octagon should translate to superior composure and tactical execution under the bright lights.
Erosa's 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes create a two-dimensional attack that Douglas has never had to deal with at this level. Douglas has zero recorded takedowns (0.00 TD/15) and no submission attempts, meaning he has no answer for the grappling dimension. If Erosa secures takedowns, he can control Douglas on the ground and hunt for submissions like the guillotine chokes that have defined his recent victories over Ricardo Ramos and Christian Rodriguez.
At 6'1" with a 74-inch reach, Erosa towers over the 5'9" Douglas (72-inch reach). This 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage allows Erosa to strike from distance, control range with his jab, and make Douglas work harder to close the gap for his power shots. The size difference also aids Erosa's clinch work and takedown entries, where he can use his length to create leverage advantages.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Erosa absorbs 6.27 strikes per minute with only 48% striking defense—nearly equal to what he lands. Against Douglas’ devastating KO power (8 KO/TKOs in 13 wins), this willingness to trade creates enormous risk. Erosa has been KO'd 6 times in his career, demonstrating a genuine chin vulnerability that Douglas’ heavy left hook is perfectly designed to exploit.
Douglas has devastating first-round finishing power with a 36-second KO on his record. If Erosa comes out aggressively and engages in early exchanges before establishing his range, Douglas’ explosive power and 87% striking accuracy could produce a flash KO before Erosa’s experience and grappling advantages take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Erosa should use his 1.78 TD/15 and wrestling to take the fight to the ground early and often, neutralizing Douglas’ superior striking power. Once on the mat, Erosa can hunt for guillotine chokes and control positions while Douglas has zero grappling credentials to escape or reverse. This approach minimizes risk while maximizing Erosa’s submission opportunities.
Erosa should use his 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage to fight at distance, utilizing his jab and long combinations to score while keeping Douglas at bay. When Douglas attempts to close distance for his power shots, Erosa can clinch, initiate takedowns, or circle away using the large octagon space. Avoiding sustained pocket exchanges where Douglas’ power is most dangerous is critical to survival and victory.
🚀 Lerryan Douglas Key Advantages
Douglas finishes fights with terrifying efficiency—8 of his 13 wins have come by KO/TKO, a 62% knockout rate that ranks among the highest for debuting UFC featherweights. His 87% striking accuracy with 11.67 SLpM means he doesn't miss often and throws with devastating intent. Against Erosa's 48% striking defense and history of being KO'd 6 times, Douglas has a clear fast-track to victory via power strikes.
Douglas's 87% striking accuracy is extraordinary—nearly 9 out of 10 strikes land when he throws. Combined with 11.67 SLpM, he represents an offensive force that outputs nearly twice the volume of Erosa (6.21 SLpM) while connecting at a vastly higher rate (87% vs 48%). This efficiency means he can do maximum damage with minimum effort, creating knockout opportunities in every exchange. His 4-fight win streak with all KO/TKO finishes shows this power is current and fearsome.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Douglas has zero UFC experience and has never fought under the promotion's bright lights, intense drug testing, and elite-level competition. His regional record, while impressive, came against significantly lower-caliber opposition. The step up in competition could expose technical gaps in his game that haven't been tested yet, particularly in cardio management beyond the first two rounds.
Douglas has zero recorded takedowns, zero takedown defense data, and zero submission attempts—a complete grappling void. Against Erosa's 1.78 TD/15 and proven guillotine choke game, Douglas has no established ability to defend takedowns or escape from bottom position. If the fight goes to the ground, Douglas is completely out of his element.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Douglas should come out with max aggression in Round 1, looking to land his devastating power shots before Erosa can establish his range and grappling rhythm. With 8 KO/TKOs and a 36-second KO on his record, Douglas’ best path is finding the finish early before Erosa’ experience advantage and cardio take over. Every second the fight goes deeper favors the veteran.
Douglas must keep the fight standing at all costs. His entire advantage evaporates on the ground where he has zero grappling credentials. He needs to develop quick sprawl reactions and maintain distance from Erosa’s clinch entries. If Erosa shoots, Douglas should immediately try to disengage and reset to his power striking range rather than engaging in grappling exchanges he cannot win.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at Climate Pledge Arena provides ample space for Erosa's range management and takedown entries. The large cage initially benefits Erosa by giving him room to circle and use his 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage (74" vs 72") to control distance. However, Douglas can use the space to load up on power shots from distance. As the fight progresses, Erosa should look to gradually compress the cage space through clinch work and takedown attempts, removing Douglas' ability to generate the distance needed for his devastating power strikes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a striking volume advantage for Douglas (11.67 vs 6.21 SLpM) but Erosa compensates with grappling superiority (1.78 TD/15 vs 0.00) and submission threat (0.7 Sub/15 vs 0.00). Douglas has the edge in striking accuracy (87% vs 48%) and power finishing (8 KO/TKOs), but Erosa's 48% striking defense is a concern against such an accurate striker. The key technical differential is the grappling dimension: Erosa has proven UFC-level wrestling and submissions while Douglas has zero recorded takedowns or submission attempts, creating a massive skill gap on the ground.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: grappling exchanges, striking distance management, and early-round survival for Erosa. The grappling dimension overwhelmingly favors Erosa: he has proven takedowns and UFC-level submissions while Douglas has zero grappling credentials. If Erosa secures even a few takedowns, he can dominate control time and submission attempts. Standing exchanges favor Douglas via his 87% accuracy and KO power, but Erosa's experience managing dangerous strikers across 18 UFC fights provides a framework for survival. The first round is critical—if Erosa weathers Douglas' early storm, the fight increasingly skews toward the veteran's advantage.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Julian Erosa by Decision (25% probability), achieved through grappling control, takedown pressure, and experience-driven composure over three rounds. Erosa's submission path (20%) is his second-best avenue, leveraging his guillotine choke game against Douglas' non- existent grappling defense. Erosa's KO/TKO path (18%) becomes viable through accumulative damage from clinch exchanges. Douglas' best upset path centers on KO/TKO (30%) via his devastating power and 87% striking accuracy. His decision path (5%) is minimal as he lacks the cardio and tactical depth for a three-round war against a veteran.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 20% | Guillotine choke path
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Power strike path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 25% | Control & experience path
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Douglas' KO power narrative – Erosa's grappling advantage underrated by market.
- • Undervalues Erosa's UFC experience – 18 UFC fights (10-8 record) vs Douglas' promotional debut creates tactical edge.
- • Grappling dimension ignored – Douglas' 0.00 TD/15 and zero submission attempts create massive vulnerability on the ground.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Julian Erosa
Primary path via grappling control and experience
Accumulative damage from clinch exchanges
Guillotine choke and RNC opportunities from takedowns
💥Outcome Distribution - Lerryan Douglas
Best lane via devastating power and 87% accuracy
Requires sustained output over 3 rounds against a veteran
Minimal grappling credentials limit this path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Lerryan Douglas
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity while Douglas is fresh and explosive.
- • Power exchanges: Exploit Erosa's 48% striking defense with accurate power shots.
- • Early aggression: Douglas must finish before Erosa establishes grappling rhythm.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Julian Erosa
- • Grappling pressure: 1.78 TD/15 creates control time and submission opportunities.
- • Experience advantage: 18 UFC fights provides composure and tactical adjustments.
- • Late rounds: Superior cardio and tactical depth create clear scoring separation.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via grappling dimension but Douglas' KO power is real
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling advantage (1.78 TD/15 vs 0.00)
- • 18 UFC fights experience vs promotional debut
- • Submission threat (0.7 Sub/15 vs 0.00) adds finish dimension
- • Superior cardio and late-round durability
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Douglas' devastating KO power (8 KO/TKOs, 87% accuracy)
- • Erosa's 48% striking defense vulnerable to power shots
- • Erosa has 6 career KO/TKO losses on his record
🏁Executive Summary
Julian Erosa's UFC experience, grappling superiority, and multi-dimensional attack should steadily overwhelm Lerryan Douglas' more one-dimensional power striking approach over three rounds, while Douglas' best equity centers on early KO/TKO finishes before Erosa's tactical depth and cardio advantages take hold. The critical skill gap is on the ground: Erosa's 1.78 TD/15 and 0.7 Sub/15 vs Douglas' complete absence of grappling credentials (0.00 TD/15, 0.00 Sub/15) creates a dimension where the veteran has near-total control. While Douglas' 87% striking accuracy and 8 KO/TKOs demonstrate genuine knockout power, his lack of UFC experience and grappling defense against a crafty veteran like Erosa creates fundamental vulnerabilities that compound as the fight deepens.
Prediction: Erosa by Decision most likely (25% probability) through grappling control and experience-driven composure; his submission path (20%) via guillotine choke provides a strong secondary avenue. Douglas' best upset path is KO/TKO (30%) via his devastating power in the early rounds. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Douglas can land fight-ending shots before Erosa drags the contest into grappling exchanges where the veteran's advantage becomes insurmountable.