Kangjie Zhu vs Marcio Barbosa
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Kangjie Zhu
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Marcio Barbosa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📊 Last 5 Fights
Recent form and fight history comparison
Kangjie Zhu
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Rd | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2025 | Xie Bin | W | Split Decision | 3 | 5:00 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Shin Haraguchi | W | Split Decision | 3 | 5:00 |
| May 18, 2024 | Tatsuya Ando | W | Unanimous Decision | 3 | 5:00 |
| Oct 01, 2023 | Huwannixi Wusikenbieke | W | KO/TKO | 1 | 3:51 |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Min Hyuk Lee | W | KO/TKO (Elbow & Head Kick) | 1 | 0:20 |
Marcio Barbosa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Rd | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2025 | Damon Wilson | W | KO/TKO (Punches) | 1 | 4:14 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Felipe Oliveira | W | KO/TKO (Punches) | 1 | 2:54 |
| Nov 03, 2023 | Gian Sarturi | W | KO/TKO (Punches) | 1 | 3:08 |
| Jul 07, 2023 | Wellington Prado | W | KO/TKO (Punch) | 1 | 2:40 |
| Nov 04, 2022 | Gabriel Santos | L | KO/TKO (Head Kick + GnP) | 2 | 0:09 |
🔬 Technical Analysis
Comprehensive comparison of fighting metrics and composites
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📝 Score Methodology
Technical Score is calculated as the average of the Striking Composite (68 vs 48) and Grappling Composite (38 vs 25). The Cardio Score represents projected stamina based on historical fight duration, pace consistency, and late-round output. Zhu's edge in both scores reflects his superior striking defense and demonstrated 15-minute durability in RTUF bouts.
⚡ Technical Radar Comparison
📈 Statistical Comparison
🔍 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Key advantages, unfavorable scenarios, and projected strategies
Kangjie Zhu Analysis
✅ Key Advantages
- •Elite Striking Defense (70% StrDef): Only absorbs 1.33 strikes per minute, making him extremely difficult to hit cleanly. Critical against Barbosa's power-based approach.
- •Proven 15-Minute Fighter: Three full-duration Road to UFC bouts (all decisions) demonstrate championship-pace cardio. Barbosa has never been past Round 1 in recent fights.
- •Counter-Striking Precision: Patient style built to exploit aggressive opponents who overcommit. Barbosa's high-volume, high-risk approach creates ideal counter-striking opportunities.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
- •Early Barbosa Blitz: If Barbosa lands clean power shots in the first 3 minutes before Zhu establishes timing, the fight could end quickly via KO/TKO.
- •Low Output Creates Scoring Issues: Zhu's 2.89 SLpM may not generate sufficient visible damage on the scorecards, potentially losing close rounds to Barbosa's volume.
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Zhu will aim to survive the first 3 minutes of Barbosa's initial burst using elite head movement and footwork. Once Barbosa's pace slows, Zhu transitions to patient counter-striking — using his 2-inch height advantage and precise timing to land clean shots while avoiding exchanges. Range management through the jab and lateral movement will keep Barbosa at the end of his punches.
Marcio Barbosa Analysis
✅ Key Advantages
- •Devastating KO Power (82% KO/TKO): 14 of 17 wins by knockout — one of the highest finish rates in the featherweight division. Every exchange carries fight-ending potential.
- •Extreme Striking Volume (8.27 SLpM): Nearly triple Zhu's output rate. This relentless pressure can overwhelm defensive fighters and create constant scoring opportunities.
- •Youth and Athletic Explosion (27): At 27, Barbosa is at peak physical prime with explosiveness and recovery advantages over Zhu. His speed and power combination is elite for the division.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
- •Zhu's Defense Neutralizes Volume: Zhu's 70% StrDef could make Barbosa miss consistently, turning his aggression into wasted energy while Zhu counters cleanly.
- •Cardio Collapse in Rounds 2-3: Barbosa has rarely been past Round 1 — untested cardio is his biggest vulnerability. If the fight goes to R2+, his output and power may decline dramatically.
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Barbosa must impose maximum aggression from the opening bell, looking to end the fight within the first round. Body attacks to slow Zhu's movement, followed by explosive headshot combinations. Cage cutting and constant forward pressure to prevent Zhu from establishing counter-striking range. Every minute that passes works against Barbosa — he knows this is a first-round-or-bust scenario.
🏆 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation results and win projections
Kangjie Zhu
Win Probability
Model Odds: -165
Marcio Barbosa
Win Probability
Model Odds: +140
📊 Outcome Distribution
📋Prediction Summary
Zhu Kangjie holds a meaningful technical edge built on elite striking defense (70% StrDef, 1.33 SApM) and proven 15-minute durability. His patient counter-striking style is well-suited to exploit Barbosa's aggressive, high-volume approach. However, Barbosa's devastating knockout power (82% KO/TKO rate) makes him dangerous every second the fight is standing — particularly in the opening minutes before his untested cardio becomes a factor. The fight essentially becomes a question of timing: can Barbosa find the knockout before Zhu's defensive mastery and cardio advantage take control? Our model leans Zhu (62%) based on the durability-meets-defense dynamic, with Decision as the most likely outcome (35%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Edge identification and value opportunity assessment
| Fighter | Model Odds | Model Prob | Market Odds (BetOnline) | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kangjie Zhu | -165 | 62% | ... | Model Favors |
| Marcio Barbosa | +140 | 38% | ... | Monitor |
MAX VALUE
Zhu by Decision
Model probability: 35% — If market line implies less than 35%, significant value exists on this outcome.
GOOD VALUE
Barbosa by KO/TKO
Model probability: 32% — This outcome is often underrated by markets that focus on overall win probability.
SLIGHT VALUE
Zhu by KO/TKO
Model probability: 25% — Market may undervalue Zhu's counter-striking finishing ability against a hittable aggressive fighter.
📊Key Market Discrepancies
- •Barbosa's inflated LFA stats: 8.27 SLpM and 82% finish rate come entirely from regional Brazilian competition — expect significant regression against UFC-caliber defense.
- •Zhu's 70% StrDef undervalued: This elite defensive rate is proven against Road to UFC competition — a level well above Barbosa's regional opponents.
- •Cardio differential in later rounds: Zhu's proven 15-minute pacing vs. Barbosa's total inexperience past R1 creates compounding advantages as the fight progresses.
⏱️ Fight Timeline Analysis
Round-by-round advantage projection and momentum shifts
🥊 Round 1
Advantage: BarbosaBarbosa's window of maximum opportunity. He brings explosive power and extreme volume (8.27 SLpM) from the opening bell, seeking early knockout. His best chance comes in the first 3 minutes before Zhu establishes defensive timing. However, Zhu's 70% StrDef means even in Barbosa's best round, many shots will miss or land partially. If Zhu survives the initial storm, the momentum begins shifting.
🥊 Round 2
Advantage: ZhuZhu's defensive mastery begins paying dividends. Barbosa's output typically declines sharply as cardio issues emerge — he has virtually no experience fighting at this pace past R1. Zhu's counter-striking becomes more effective as Barbosa slows, and the 2-inch height advantage creates clean angles. Expect declining volume from Barbosa and increasingly accurate counter shots from Zhu.
🥊 Round 3
Advantage: Zhu (Strong)This is where Zhu's cardio and counter-striking become decisive. With three full-duration RTUF bouts under his belt, Zhu maintains his pace while Barbosa's power and speed continue declining. The window shifts entirely — Zhu may even find late finishing opportunities against a fatigued opponent. Barbosa's 50% StrDef becomes even more porous when tired, creating openings for clean counter-combinations.
📈Zhu's Window of Opportunity
- • When: R2 onwards as Barbosa's output and power decline
- • How: Counter-striking with increasing accuracy as Barbosa tires
- • Probability: Grows from ~50% in R1 to ~75% in R3
📉Barbosa's Window of Opportunity
- • When: First 3 minutes of R1 — maximum explosiveness
- • How: Overwhelming early blitz with power combinations
- • Probability: Peaks at ~55% in R1, drops to ~25% by R3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong defensive edge backed by proven 15-minute durability
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite striking defense (70% StrDef, 1.33 SApM)
- • Proven 15-minute cardio in 3 RTUF bouts
- • Higher competition level against Asian regional elites
- • Counter-striking style ideal against aggressive opponents
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barbosa's devastating KO power (82% finish rate)
- • Zhu's low offensive output (2.89 SLpM)
- • Barbosa's 8-fight win streak with rising confidence
🏁Executive Summary
Kangjie Zhu's elite defensive profile and proven championship-pace cardio should systematically neutralize Marcio Barbosa's explosive but unsustainable power attack. Zhu's 70% striking defense — the key stat in this matchup — means Barbosa's devastating power will frequently miss or land partially, while Barbosa's untested cardio beyond Round 1 represents his critical vulnerability. The fight's narrative is clear: Barbosa must finish early or face a progressive decline against a fighter built for 15 minutes. Zhu's counter-striking precision becomes increasingly effective as Barbosa fatigues, creating late-round finishing opportunities that complement his points-based path to victory.
Prediction: Zhu by Decision most likely (35% probability) through patient counter-striking and superior cardio management; Barbosa's best upset path is early KO/TKO (32%) via power combinations in the first 3 minutes of R1. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Barbosa can land clean fight-ending power before Zhu's defensive timing and 15-minute gas tank take control of the pace and scoring.