Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Mansur Abdul-Malik
9-0-1
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Yousri Belgaroui
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mansur Abdul-Malik
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 06, 2025 | Antonio Trócoli | W | SUB (Standing Guillotine Choke) (R1, 1:09) |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Cody Brundage | O/T | Result Overturned (R3, 0:36) |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Nick Klein | W | KO/TKO (Strikes Against the Cage) (R2, 3:24) |
| Nov 09, 2024 | Duško Todorović | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:44) |
| Aug 13, 2024 | Wes Schultz | W | KO/TKO (Elbows) (R2, 3:55) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Yousri Belgaroui
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Azamat Bekoev | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R3, 0:55) |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Taiga Iwasaki | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R3, 2:34) |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ahmed Sami | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Giorgi Kvelidze | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 4:59) |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Marco Tulio | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Mansur Abdul-Malik Key Advantages
Abdul-Malik's 0.94 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Belgaroui's 0.39 represents a 2.4x differential that could fundamentally shift fight control. His 83% takedown defense is elite and far superior to Belgaroui's 68%, meaning he can control where the fight takes place. Abdul-Malik's freestyle MMA background gives him chain-wrestling sequences and mat returns that create minute-winning cycles of control time. Against a striker like Belgaroui who has 0.00 submissions per 15 minutes, the ground becomes a safe scoring zone where Abdul-Malik can accumulate damage and control without submission risk.
Abdul-Malik has never gone to a decision in his career—all 9 wins have come by finish (7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB). His 100% finish rate demonstrates devastating finishing ability that Belgaroui's 51% striking defense may struggle to contain. Abdul-Malik's average fight duration of 06:22 shows he ends fights early, with wins distributed across rounds 1 and 2. His power punching and ground-and-pound create constant threats that force opponents to fight defensively, opening up additional takedown and submission opportunities in the process.
Abdul-Malik's 0.47 submissions per 15 minutes vs Belgaroui's 0.00 creates a one-directional submission threat that adds another dimension to his attack. His recent guillotine choke finish of Antonio Trócoli in just 1:09 demonstrates legitimate submission skills that complement his wrestling. This forces Belgaroui to defend both the takedown and the submission, creating a compound threat that pure strikers struggle to manage. Belgaroui's complete lack of submission attempts means Abdul-Malik can work from top position without worrying about getting caught.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Belgaroui's 5.82 SLpM at 66% accuracy significantly outperforms Abdul-Malik's 4.18 SLpM at 48% accuracy in pure striking exchanges. If the fight remains at range, Belgaroui's kickboxing pedigree and superior volume could overwhelm Abdul-Malik's lower-accuracy striking. The Dutchman's ability to land clean combinations at distance represents the biggest threat to Abdul-Malik's unbeaten record, particularly in the opening minutes before wrestling pressure can be established.
Belgaroui stands 6'6" compared to Abdul-Malik's 6'2", giving him a 4-inch height advantage. This frame differential allows Belgaroui to utilize long punches, teeps, and knees to maintain distance and deter takedown entries. Abdul-Malik will need to cover more ground on his shots, potentially exposing himself to intercept strikes during level changes. The height gap also makes clinch takedowns more challenging as Belgaroui can underhook and frame effectively.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Abdul-Malik should utilize forward pressure and cage cutting to establish wrestling exchanges early. His 50% takedown accuracy combined with his ability to chain shots creates a sustainable approach that minimizes time at range. By closing distance quickly and threatening both body lock takedowns and single legs off the fence, Abdul-Malik can negate Belgaroui's striking advantages and shift the fight to his preferred domain. The key is limiting exchanges at range and forcing clinch situations where his wrestling and submission skills become dominant.
Once Abdul-Malik secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and unleashing ground-and- pound. His 7 KO/TKO wins demonstrate devastating power from top position. Against Belgaroui's lack of submission threat (0.00 SubPer15), Abdul-Malik can work from top position without fear of getting caught. This approach maximizes scoring while creating finish opportunities— Abdul-Malik can bank rounds through positional control while looking for openings to end the fight with strikes from dominant positions.
🚀 Yousri Belgaroui Key Advantages
Belgaroui's 5.82 SLpM significantly outpaces Abdul-Malik's 4.18, creating a 39% volume advantage in standing exchanges. His kickboxing background enables him to chain combinations with fluency while switching between orthodox and southpaw stances. The "Baby Face Assassin" nickname belies lethal finishing power—7 of his 9 wins have come by KO/TKO. When fights remain at range, Belgaroui's output and accuracy (66% vs 48%) create overwhelmingly favorable exchanges that can discourage opponents from standing with him. His ability to land at nearly double the rate Abdul-Malik absorbs (5.82 vs 3.46 SApM) creates massive damage differentials.
Belgaroui's 66% striking accuracy is elite-level precision, compared to Abdul-Malik's 48%. This 18-point gap means Belgaroui lands a higher percentage of the strikes he throws, wasting less energy on missed attempts while delivering cleaner damage. Combined with his 61% striking defense (vs Abdul-Malik's 51%), Belgaroui wins the efficiency battle on the feet. His 4-inch height advantage at 6'6" creates geometric advantages for straight punches and knees, making clean entries difficult for the shorter Abdul-Malik. His compositeStriking score of 74 vs 52 reflects this comprehensive striking superiority.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Abdul-Malik's wrestling advantage (0.94 vs 0.39 TD15) combined with superior takedown defense (83% vs 68%) creates a nightmare scenario for Belgaroui once the fight hits the mat. Belgaroui's 30 composite grappling score vs Abdul-Malik's 55 represents a massive gap that becomes exploitable as soon as distance is closed. Once taken down, Belgaroui's complete lack of submission attempts (0.00 SubPer15) means he has limited offensive options from bottom position, leading to extended control sequences and damage accumulation.
Belgaroui's zero submission activity (0.00 SubPer15) means he offers no grappling threat from any position. Against Abdul-Malik's 0.47 SubPer15, this creates a one-sided submission dynamic where Belgaroui must defend without being able to counter-threaten. Abdul-Malik's recent guillotine choke win shows he can capitalize on defensive scrambles. The longer Belgaroui spends on the ground, the more submission opportunities present themselves, making each failed escape attempt increasingly dangerous.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Belgaroui's optimal strategy involves maintaining his 4-inch height advantage and keeping the fight at range. His teeps, long straights, and calf kicks should target Abdul-Malik's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Belgaroui to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 66% accuracy combined with high 5.82 SLpM output can overwhelm Abdul-Malik's 51% striking defense, especially if constant movement prevents Abdul-Malik from establishing cage pressure.
Belgaroui's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first round when he's fresh and Abdul-Malik hasn't yet established his wrestling rhythm. With 4 of his 7 stoppages coming in round 1, Belgaroui should look to capitalize on his early power advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean combinations before Abdul-Malik's pressure begins to take effect. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Belgaroui can force Abdul-Malik to fight from range where the Dutchman holds a decisive advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates an interesting dynamic for this matchup—initially favoring Belgaroui's range weapons and movement at 6'6", but gradually shifting toward Abdul-Malik's pressure as the fight progresses. Belgaroui's height advantage and kickboxing pedigree give him significant advantages when he can maintain distance and utilize his long straights, teeps, and knees effectively. However, Abdul-Malik's pressure style and chain-wrestling sequences can gradually compress the available space, forcing Belgaroui into uncomfortable clinch situations. Abdul-Malik's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Belgaroui's ally into Abdul-Malik's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a classic wrestler vs striker matchup with clear domains for each fighter. Belgaroui's striking superiority (5.82 SLpM at 66% accuracy vs 4.18 at 48%) gives him a massive advantage on the feet, but Abdul-Malik's grappling edge (0.94 vs 0.39 TD15, 83% vs 68% TDD, 0.47 vs 0.00 SubPer15) creates an entirely different fight once distance is closed. Abdul-Malik's composite grappling score of 55 vs Belgaroui's 30 represents the largest differential in this matchup. The fight likely comes down to how quickly Abdul-Malik can establish his wrestling game—if he can close distance and secure takedowns early, his finishing power from top position (100% career finish rate) makes him extremely dangerous.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical domains will determine the outcome: takedown entry success vs distance management, submission threat vs ground survival, and early round danger vs late round control. Belgaroui's 68% takedown defense suggests he can stuff some attempts, but Abdul-Malik's 50% accuracy and persistence mean he only needs a few successful entries to change the fight. Belgaroui's height advantage (4 inches) creates difficult shooting angles for Abdul-Malik, but once distance is closed, the grappling differential becomes massive. The early rounds favor Belgaroui's striking—his 4 round 1 stoppages show devastating early power—but as the fight progresses, Abdul-Malik's wrestling pressure and cardio advantage (55 vs 65 cardio scores) become increasingly decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (30% probability), achieved through ground-and-pound after securing takedowns or catching Belgaroui with power strikes during scrambles. Abdul-Malik's submission path (12%) becomes viable through back-takes and guillotine attempts off scrambles. His decision path (20%) requires sustained control through three rounds of wrestling pressure. Belgaroui's best path to victory is an early KO/TKO (18%) via his superior striking accuracy and volume before the wrestling pressure is established. His decision path (7%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes harder as Abdul-Malik's pressure escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Fair: -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overprices Belgaroui's striking edge – Underprices Abdul-Malik's grappling dominance path.
- • Undervalues wrestling control – TD15 differential (0.94 vs 0.39) drives scoring in 3-round bouts.
- • Finish rate underappreciated – Abdul-Malik's 100% career finish rate reduces decision variance.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mansur Abdul-Malik
Via wrestling control and positional dominance
Primary path via GNP and power striking
Back-takes and guillotine attempts off scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Yousri Belgaroui
Best lane via superior striking accuracy and volume
Requires sustained range control across three rounds
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yousri Belgaroui
- • First 5 minutes: Highest striking KO equity before wrestling is established.
- • Range management: Long straights + teeps to exploit height advantage.
- • Early aggression: Press pace before Abdul-Malik's pressure takes hold.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Mansur Abdul-Malik
- • Pressure wrestling: Cage cutting and body lock takedowns negate range.
- • Ground & pound: Top position creates finish opportunities with 100% finish rate.
- • Late rounds: Wrestling pressure and cardio advantage compound over time.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high edge via wrestling and finishing ability
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant grappling edge (0.94 vs 0.39 TD15)
- • 100% career finish rate shows elite closing ability
- • Superior takedown defense (83% vs 68%)
- • Submission threat (0.47 SubPer15) vs zero for opponent
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Belgaroui's striking volume (5.82 SLpM) and accuracy (66%)
- • 4-inch height disadvantage complicates TD entries
- • Belgaroui's early round finishing power (4 R1 KOs)
🏁Executive Summary
Mansur Abdul-Malik's wrestling-heavy approach should allow him to close distance and establish grappling exchanges against Yousri Belgaroui's dangerous but wrestling-vulnerable striking game. The statistical differentials favor Abdul-Malik in the grappling domain: his 0.94 TD15 vs Belgaroui's 0.39 creates a 2.4x takedown volume advantage, while his 83% TDD vs 68% ensures he can dictate where the fight takes place. Abdul-Malik's 100% career finish rate (7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB) demonstrates elite closing ability, while his 0.47 SubPer15 vs Belgaroui's 0.00 creates an asymmetric threat on the ground. Belgaroui's best path is early striking—his 5.82 SLpM at 66% accuracy and 4 first-round stoppages show devastating early power—but the longer the fight goes, the more Abdul-Malik's wrestling pressure compounds.
Prediction: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO most likely (30% probability) through ground-and-pound after securing takedowns; Belgaroui's upset lane is early KO/TKO (18%) via superior striking accuracy and volume before the wrestling pressure is established. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Belgaroui can capitalize on his early striking advantages before Abdul-Malik's wrestling pressure and finishing power become decisive factors.