Michael Chiesa vs Carlston Harris
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Michael Chiesa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Carlston Harris
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Michael Chiesa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Court McGee | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Max Griffin | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R3, 1:56) |
| 2024-08-03 | Tony Ferguson | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 3:44) |
| 2023-07-29 | Kevin Holland | L | SUB (D'Arce Choke) (R1, 2:39) |
| 2021-11-20 | Sean Brady | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Carlston Harris
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R3, 3:13) |
| 2024-05-18 | Khaos Williams | L | KO/TKO (Right Hook) (R1, 1:30) |
| 2023-08-05 | Jeremiah Wells | W | SUB (Anaconda Choke) (R3, 1:50) |
| 2023-03-11 | Jared Gooden | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-05 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | L | KO/TKO (Kick) (R1, 4:10) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Michael Chiesa Key Advantages
Chiesa's 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes against Harris's 55% takedown defense is the defining statistical matchup. Chiesa shoots at more than double Harris's rate (3.05 vs 1.46), converts at more than double the accuracy (47% vs 22%), and defends better (67% vs 55%). If Chiesa shoots 4-5 times per round, Harris projects to be taken down 2-3 times per round. Once on top, Chiesa's chain wrestling, body lock control, and relentless back-take sequences make him extremely difficult to escape. This is the foundational advantage — Chiesa can dictate where this fight takes place.
Chiesa's 12 career submission victories — all by rear naked choke or close variations — represent a level of submission specialization that borders on obsession. He has systematized the entire sequence: clinch entry → body lock → trip or drag → back control → hooks in → choke. Recent wins over Tony Ferguson (RNC, R1) and Max Griffin (RNC, R3) demonstrate this sequence remains sharp. Against Harris, who has never been submitted in UFC competition but has limited defensive wrestling reps (only 7 UFC fights), Chiesa's RNC hunting creates a persistent, round-by-round finishing threat at 1.0 submissions per 15 minutes.
Chiesa absorbs strikes at half the rate Harris does (1.73 vs 3.46 SApM) — and this metric is a proxy for fight safety. Chiesa's smothering grappling style minimizes the time opponents can throw clean strikes: once tied up in the clinch or on the ground, Harris's striking advantage evaporates. Over a 15-minute fight, the cumulative damage differential should heavily favor Chiesa. His 57% striking defense is respectable — he avoids more strikes than he absorbs, reflecting his ability to smother exchanges through clinch work and positional control.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Harris's anaconda choke — which he has used to finish 2 of his 4 UFC wins — is a front headlock submission specifically applied against wrestlers who shoot takedowns. Chiesa has been submitted by D'Arce choke (the technical twin of the anaconda) three times in his career (Masvidal, Luque, Holland). Every Chiesa takedown attempt is a potential anaconda choke entry for Harris. If Chiesa shoots lazily or leaves his head exposed, Harris could snap down and finish with his signature submission.
If Chiesa cannot secure takedowns or Harris's sprawling denies the clinch, the fight shifts to the striking domain where Harris holds a 2:1 volume advantage (3.79 vs 2.03 SLpM) and genuine knockout power (0.59 KD/15 vs Chiesa's 0.07). A fight that stays standing for 80%+ of the duration is almost certainly a Harris victory by decision or late stoppage. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Harris to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chiesa should close distance quickly using his southpaw jab as a range-finder, then immediately initiate clinch ties — underhooks, body locks, collar ties — to set up takedowns. The safest takedown sequences are body lock trips from the clinch (eliminating the headlock vector entirely) and high-crotch singles that keep his head on the far side of Harris's body. Critical instruction: do not shoot sloppy double-legs from range — this is the exact entry point for Harris's anaconda choke.
Once Chiesa secures takedowns, his priority should be back control over side control — the back mount eliminates Harris's anaconda choke threat entirely while maximizing Chiesa's RNC attacks. Against the cage, Chiesa should use the fence to pin Harris and work trips and drags rather than shooting from distance. His 67% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, and his systematic back-take sequence has produced 12 career RNC finishes.
🚀 Carlston Harris Key Advantages
Harris throws strikes at nearly double Chiesa's rate (3.79 vs 2.03 SLpM) and carries genuine fight-ending power with 0.59 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Chiesa has zero career knockdowns on the feet (0.07 KD/15) — the statistical equivalent of zero striking threat. If Harris can keep this fight standing or force extended standing sequences between takedown attempts, he can outland Chiesa by a massive margin and potentially hurt him. Harris's right hand represents a dimension that Chiesa simply cannot match.
Harris's anaconda choke — used to finish 2 of his 4 UFC wins — is a front headlock submission commonly applied against wrestlers who shoot takedowns. Chiesa shoots a lot of takedowns (3.05/15), and he has been submitted by D'Arce choke (the technical cousin of the anaconda) three times in his career (Masvidal, Luque, Holland). Harris's primary submission weapon is specifically designed to catch the type of fighter Chiesa is. Every Chiesa takedown attempt is a potential anaconda choke entry — and Chiesa's loss history proves he is vulnerable to this exact technique.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most likely Harris loss scenario. Chiesa's 3.05 TD/15 against Harris's 55% TDDef means multiple takedowns per round are statistically expected. Once on top, Chiesa's smothering pressure, body lock control, and relentless back-take hunting make it extremely difficult for Harris to create space, escape, or generate offense. Harris could spend the majority of 15 minutes on his back, losing rounds 30-27 or worse, while Chiesa accumulates control time and submission attempts.
Chiesa's signature sequence — takedown → pass to side control → back take → hooks in → RNC — is the highest-probability individual finish pathway in this fight. Harris has never been submitted in the UFC, but he has never faced a wrestler as relentless or a submission hunter as specialized as Chiesa. If Chiesa secures back control with hooks in, the RNC threat is severe and immediate.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Harris's optimal strategy involves keeping the fight standing while weaponizing his takedown defense into offensive front headlock submissions. On the feet, Harris should fight behind his jab, use right hands to punish Chiesa's entries, and keep the fight at kicking range where his 3.79 SLpM volume advantage can accumulate rounds. When Chiesa shoots, Harris needs to sprawl aggressively and immediately look for the front headlock position to threaten anaconda chokes.
Make Chiesa pay for every takedown attempt with front headlock pressure — at minimum, this discourages future attempts; at maximum, it produces a fight-ending anaconda choke. Given Chiesa's 3 career D'Arce choke losses, this counter-wrestling approach is the highest-percentage path to a finish. If taken down, Harris should prioritize getting to his feet immediately using cage walks, hip escapes, and scrambles rather than trying to fight from bottom position.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🤼Grappling vs Striking Dynamic
This is one of the most clearly defined grappling-vs-striking matchups on the UFC Seattle card. Chiesa dominates every grappling metric — 3.05 TD/15 at 47% accuracy against Harris's 55% TDDef, plus 1.0 Sub/15 — and should control where this fight takes place. However, Harris's 3.79 SLpM nearly doubles Chiesa's 2.03, and he carries genuine knockout power (0.59 KD/15). If the fight stays standing for extended periods, Harris wins those exchanges decisively. The outcome hinges on whether Chiesa can consistently close distance and implement his wrestling.
🐍The Anaconda Choke Wildcard
The fascinating wrinkle is Harris's own submission rate (0.6 Sub/15). His anaconda choke is a proven UFC-level weapon (2 wins by anaconda choke) that is specifically designed to catch wrestlers who shoot takedowns. Chiesa has lost 5 fights by submission — including 3 by D'Arce choke (the same technique family as the anaconda). This is the hidden statistical landmine: Chiesa's path to victory runs directly through the territory where he himself has been finished most frequently. The transitions between standing and ground — the scrambles, the half-secured takedowns, the headlock entries from sprawls — are where this fight's outcome will truly be determined.
📋Simulation Overview
In 100 hypothetical simulations: Chiesa wrestling domination leading to decision or submission accounts for 40-45 outcomes. Harris's anaconda choke counter produces 10-15 finishes. Harris standing striking victories occur in 15-20 simulations. Competitive close decisions split roughly 60-40 in Chiesa's favor across 15-20 simulations. Early Chiesa submission finishes via rapid back-takes occur in 5-10 scenarios. The plurality scenario reflects Chiesa's grappling dominance, but Harris's counter-weapons create meaningful upset equity.
🏁Final Prediction
The two most likely outcomes are Chiesa by Decision (30%) and Chiesa by Submission (30%) — both driven by his dominant wrestling metrics and relentless RNC hunting. Harris's best upset paths are by Decision (14%) if he stuffs takedowns at a higher-than-expected rate, or by Submission (14%) via anaconda choke on Chiesa's takedown entries. Harris by KO/TKO (10%) remains a background threat through his right-hand power, while Chiesa by KO/TKO (2%) is statistically negligible given his zero career knockout wins.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
BEST VALUE
Model: 30% | Best-value prop
CONTRARIAN VALUE
Model: 14% | Anaconda choke trap
FAIR VALUE
Model: 58% | Grinding style
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Chiesa by Sub at +233 is best value —30% model probability with 12 career RNC finishes against unproven submission defense.
- • Anaconda choke counter underpriced —Harris by Sub at +614 maps perfectly to Chiesa's 3 career D'Arce choke losses.
- • Decision at -110 slightly overpriced —Model projects 44% decision probability; submission threats from both sides suggest a finish is more likely than not.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Michael Chiesa
Wrestling control and body lock dominance over 3 rounds
Negligible — zero career KO wins
RNC specialization with 12 career rear-naked choke finishes
💥Outcome Distribution - Carlston Harris
Right-hand power and striking volume advantage
Requires consistent takedown stuffing for 3 rounds
Anaconda choke on Chiesa takedown entries
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Carlston Harris
- • First 5 minutes: Highest striking advantage while Chiesa closes distance.
- • Front headlock entries: Anaconda choke attempts on early Chiesa takedown shots.
- • Sprawl-and-brawl: Keep fight standing and capitalize on 3.79 SLpM volume.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Michael Chiesa
- • Body lock trips: Clinch engagement bypasses single/double shot danger zone.
- • Back control priority: Every takedown becomes an RNC hunt opportunity.
- • Cumulative control: 3.05 TD/15 rate banks safe scoring minutes over 3 rounds.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge via wrestling, but anaconda choke counter creates meaningful uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • 3.05 TD/15 vs Harris's 55% TDDef creates wrestling control
- • 1.0 Sub/15 with 12 career RNC finishes
- • Superior damage economy (2.08 SApM vs 3.24)
- • Experience edge: 22 UFC fights vs 6 for Harris
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Harris anaconda choke (2 UFC wins) targets Chiesa's takedown entries
- • Chiesa's 3 D'Arce choke losses in same technique family
- • Harris's 3.79 SLpM striking volume in standing exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Michael Chiesa's systematic wrestling approach should dictate the pace and location of this fight, with his 3.05 TD/15 at 47% accuracy creating consistent takedown opportunities against Harris's 55% TDDef. Chiesa's 1.0 Sub/15 and 12 career RNC finishes make every back-take situation dangerous, while his damage economy (2.08 SApM vs Harris's 3.24) ensures he accumulates less visible damage on the scorecards. However, Harris's anaconda choke specialization (2 UFC wins) creates a unique counter-threat that specifically targets Chiesa's takedown entries — and Chiesa's 3 career D'Arce choke losses confirm this vulnerability is real. The transition moments between standing and ground work are where this fight will ultimately be decided.
Prediction: Chiesa by Decision (30%) or Submission (30%) as most likely outcomes, driven by dominant wrestling metrics and relentless RNC hunting. Harris's best upset path is via anaconda choke submission (14%) on Chiesa's takedown entries, making the grappling transitions the critical battleground.