Marcin Tybura vs Valter Walker
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Marcin Tybura
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Valter Walker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marcin Tybura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 06, 2025 | Ante Delija | L | KO/TKO (R1, 2:03) |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Mick Parkin | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Jhonata Diniz | W | KO/TKO (Doctor Stoppage) (R2, 5:00) |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Serghei Spivac | L | SUB (Armbar) (R1, 1:44) |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Tai Tuivasa | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 4:08) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Valter Walker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Louie Sutherland | W | SUB (Heel Hook) (R1, 1:24) |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | W | SUB (Heel Hook) (R1, 0:54) |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | SUB (Heel Hook) (R1, 1:17) |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Junior Tafa | W | SUB (Heel Hook) (R1, 4:56) |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Łukasz Brzeski | L | DEC (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Marcin Tybura Key Advantages
Tybura's 3.59 SLpM nearly doubles Walker's 2.00, meaning Tybura will outland Walker at a rate of roughly 1.8:1 for every minute the fight remains standing. His 55% striking defense vs. Walker's 42% creates a 13-percentage-point defensive gap — Tybura gets hit significantly less often. Combined with his 48% striking accuracy, Tybura can maintain a jab-heavy attack that scores consistently on the scorecards while keeping Walker at range. If this fight stays upright for 15 minutes, the striking differential produces a clear decision victory.
Tybura has defended 75% of takedown attempts across a 23-fight UFC career — a substantial sample that includes defending heavyweights with legitimate wrestling credentials. His hip positioning, underhook work, and cage awareness in the clinch have been tested against a wide variety of grappling styles. While Walker's heel hook game is unique, Tybura's overall defensive wrestling awareness and his ability to remain upright in scrambles gives him a foundation to resist Walker's entries. The key for Tybura: stay on his feet and don't go to the ground under any circumstances.
Tybura's 10:51 average fight duration with 7 decision victories demonstrates proven ability to maintain output across three rounds. At heavyweight, where many fighters fade after Round 1, Tybura's conditioning allows him to grind opponents down in Rounds 2-3. Walker has never been in Round 2 of a UFC fight he's winning — if Tybura survives the initial grappling onslaught and forces the fight into later rounds, he enters completely uncharted territory for Walker where young specialists get exposed. His 23 UFC fights against world-class competition dwarf Walker's 5-fight sample size.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Walker's most likely victory path is a first-round heel hook — the same way he's won his last four UFC fights. If Walker successfully shoots, enters a leg entangle, and locks the heel hook, Tybura's career experience and striking advantages become irrelevant. The fight ends in under 3 minutes — Walker's 69% TDAcc and the speed of his transitions make this scenario carry significant probability. Tybura has never faced a leg lock specialist of this caliber.
At 40 years old, Tybura's most recent fight was a first-round KO/TKO loss to Ante Delija — his fifth career stoppage by strikes. The 12-year age gap creates a physical mismatch in explosiveness and reaction speed that heavily favors the younger Walker. In crucial first-round scrambles that determine this fight, Walker's youth and fast-twitch athleticism give him a decisive edge over Tybura's aging reflexes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Tybura should open with a high-volume jab, maintaining maximum distance to prevent Walker's wrestling entries. Body jabs and straight punches down the middle should be the primary weapons — keeping Walker honest at range and scoring points with every exchange. Leg kicks should be deployed cautiously — a committed leg kick can be caught and converted into a takedown entry. Tybura must absolutely resist any temptation to clinch or grapple — the clinch is where Walker transitions to leg entanglements. Every second on the feet is a winning second for Tybura.
If Walker shoots a takedown, Tybura must sprawl hard, drive Walker's head down, and immediately disengage to standing. Do NOT go to the ground to follow up. Do NOT enter guard. Do NOT chase submissions. Stand up, reset distance, and resume jabbing. In Rounds 2-3, Tybura should increase volume — knowing Walker's conditioning beyond Round 1 is completely unproven and his frustration could lead to reckless entries that Tybura can exploit with counter striking.
🚀 Valter Walker Key Advantages
Walker's heel hook is the single highest-probability finishing weapon in this fight. Four consecutive first-round heel hooks in the UFC — Tafa (4:56), Mayes (1:17), Nzechukwu (0:54), Sutherland (1:24) — represents an unprecedented level of submission specialization at heavyweight. His 2.55 submission attempts per 15 minutes is extraordinary, and his finishing rate from leg entanglements approaches 100%. The speed of his entries, mechanical precision, and rotational control make this the single most dangerous phase of the fight. One entangled leg, and the fight is over. Tybura has never faced a heel hook specialist of this caliber.
At 28, Walker possesses the athleticism, reaction speed, and explosiveness of a fighter in his physical prime. Against a 40-year-old Tybura whose body has absorbed a decade of heavyweight damage, the physical disparity is monumental. Walker's explosive wrestling entries require fast-twitch athleticism that degrades with age — Walker has it in abundance while Tybura's has been declining for years. His 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at 69% accuracy means he'll be shooting approximately every 2.5 minutes, creating constant grappling engagement. He needs only one successful entry to finish the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Tybura implements a disciplined game plan — jab-heavy, maintaining distance, circling off the cage, and stuffing every takedown attempt — Walker could find himself in deep water for the first time in his UFC career. With a 2.00 SLpM and 42% StrDef, Walker is deeply vulnerable on the feet. A patient, volume-based Tybura attack over 3 rounds would produce a decisive decision victory. Walker's 42% striking defense means he absorbs nearly 6 of every 10 strikes thrown at him.
If Walker's initial grappling onslaught fails and Tybura defends the first 3-4 heel hook attempts, Walker enters completely unknown territory. His 4:42 average fight duration means we have zero data on his ability to sustain output beyond the first round. The Brzeski fight showed Walker fades when fights extend beyond one round. His explosive grappling style burns enormous energy, and if submission attempts fail in Round 1, the energy debt could be catastrophic against a conditioned veteran.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Walker should close distance within the first 30 seconds, shooting a low single or double leg takedown to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. From the initial clinch, Walker should immediately begin hunting leg entanglements — ashi garami entries, pulling guard into saddle positions, and transitioning off failed takedowns into leg lock opportunities. Volume and persistence are key — he should attempt 4-6 submission attacks in Round 1, knowing each attempt has a high probability of success.
The heel hook doesn't require a traditional takedown completion — it requires leg access, and Walker's ability to enter leg entanglements from standing, clinch, and scramble positions makes his attack vector versatile. If the first heel hook attempt fails, immediately re-engage and hunt another entry. Walker should also consider varying attacks — guillotine attempts, rear naked choke transitions, and arm entanglements — to prevent Tybura from focusing exclusively on heel hook defense. Do not stand and strike under any circumstances.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates an interesting dynamic — the large cage gives Tybura more space to maintain distance and circle away from Walker's wrestling entries. Every additional step Walker must cover to close distance extends the time Tybura can use his jab and straight punches at range. However, the cage also provides Walker with fence-wrestling opportunities — once he closes the distance, the cage becomes a wall that prevents Tybura from disengaging. The fight's opening minutes will be defined by whether Walker can close the distance before Tybura's striking volume establishes rhythm and scoring momentum.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This fight is defined by the specialist vs. generalist dynamic. Walker's 5.74 TD15 with 69% accuracy vs. Tybura's 75% TDDef creates the fight's critical inflection point. On the feet, Tybura's 3.59 SLpM nearly doubles Walker's 2.00, with a 13-percentage-point striking defense advantage (55% vs. 42%). On the ground, Walker's 2.55 Sub/15 creates a submission threat 21x greater than Tybura's 0.12. The fight outcome is binary: Tybura wins every minute standing, Walker wins the moment it goes to the ground. The critical question is whether Tybura can defend Walker's elite takedown entries for 15 minutes — or whether Walker can complete a single entry and lock in a heel hook before the fight ends via striking.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Tybura's 75% TDDef vs. Walker's 69% TDAcc in the first round, Walker's explosive grappling entries vs. Tybura's sprawl-and-disengage defense, and cardio sustainability beyond Round 1. Tybura's defensive wrestling is proven across 23 UFC fights — but Walker's 69% TDAcc is based on elite-level shot timing against opponents who are NOT leg lock specialists. If Tybura can survive Walker's initial submission onslaught, the fight enters territory Walker has never navigated successfully. The Brzeski loss showed Walker fades noticeably when fights extend, and Tybura's 10:51 average fight time proves he thrives in precisely those conditions.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Walker by Submission (46% probability) — overwhelmingly the highest single-outcome probability, driven by 4 consecutive UFC heel hook finishes and his 2.55 Sub/15 rate. Tybura's most likely victory path is Decision (24%) through grinding, volume striking over 3 rounds. Tybura by KO/TKO (14%) becomes viable if Walker's 42% StrDef creates cumulative damage opportunities. Walker by KO/TKO (8%) reflects his heavyweight power without UFC knockout history. Walker by Decision (4%) is the least likely outcome — he has zero UFC decision wins. Tybura by Submission (4%) reflects the low but real possibility of catching Walker in a scramble.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 24% | Best value play for contrarians
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~33% | Market may undervalue TDDef
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 46% | Highest single-outcome probability
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Walker's heel hook efficiency – 4/4 first-round finishes suggest submission is underpriced at -117.
- • Tybura's TDDef undervalued – 75% across 23 fights may extend fight beyond Round 1.
- • Cardio asymmetry – Walker untested beyond 4:56; Tybura thrives in later rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marcin Tybura
Primary path via volume striking and cardio advantage
Walker's 42% StrDef creates cumulative damage path
Low but real via scramble catch (0.12 Sub/15)
💥Outcome Distribution - Valter Walker
Primary path via heel hooks (4/4 UFC subs in R1)
Heavyweight power but no UFC KO history
Zero UFC decision wins — highly unlikely path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Valter Walker
- • First 5 minutes: Peak heel hook threat — 4/4 finishes came before 4:56.
- • Takedown entries: Explosive shots before Tybura establishes jab rhythm.
- • Leg entanglements: Any ground contact creates immediate submission danger.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Marcin Tybura
- • Volume striking: 3.59 SLpM vs 42% StrDef creates accumulative advantage.
- • Cardio edge: 10:51 avg fight time vs Walker's 4:42 — massive late-fight advantage.
- • Defensive wrestling: 75% TDDef across 23 UFC fights neutralizes entries.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Walker's unique finishing weapon creates clear edge, but Tybura's TDDef adds uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • 4 consecutive first-round heel hook finishes in UFC
- • 5.74 TD15 at 69% accuracy creates constant grappling threat
- • 12-year age advantage and physical prime athleticism
- • Tybura has never faced a heel hook specialist
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Tybura's 75% TDDef across 23 UFC fights is proven
- • Walker untested beyond 4:56 fight duration
- • Walker's 42% StrDef means he absorbs heavy damage standing
🏁Executive Summary
Valter Walker's heel hook specialization creates the single highest-probability finishing weapon in this fight — four consecutive first-round submissions via heel hook is unprecedented at heavyweight. His 5.74 TD15 at 69% accuracy provides the delivery mechanism for this weapon, and the 12-year age gap gives him the explosive athleticism needed for entry execution. However, Marcin Tybura's 75% TDDef across 23 UFC fights represents a significant structural barrier. Tybura's 3.59 SLpM nearly doubles Walker's 2.00, with a 13-point striking defense advantage (55% vs. 42%). If the fight stays standing beyond Round 1, Tybura's cardio advantage (10:51 avg vs. 4:42) becomes increasingly decisive.
Prediction: Walker by Submission most likely (46% probability) driven by his elite heel hook finishing rate; Tybura's best path is Decision (24%) through volume striking and cardio advantage in later rounds. Tybura by Decision at +317 represents the best value play for contrarians who believe his defensive wrestling can neutralize Walker's grappling entries.